Friday, December 4, 2009

Reviewing the AFC Playoff Picture

Last week we took a look at the AFC Playoff Race and had you vote on who would join the Colts in the playoffs. Let's reset that after a week (and a Thursday night game) courtesy of CBS Sportsline:


Seed
Team
Division
Record
1
 Indianapolis (y)
South
11-0-0
2
 Cincinnati
North
8-3-0
3
 San Diego
West
8-3-0
4
 New England
East
7-4-0
5
 Denver
West
7-4-0
6
 Jacksonville
South
6-5-0
Still alive (below)
7
 Baltimore
North
6-5-0
8
 Pittsburgh
North
6-5-0
9
 N.Y. Jets
East
6-6-0
10
 Miami
East
5-6-0
11
 Tennessee
South
5-6-0
12
 Houston
South
5-6-0

Let's review it by seed:

1. Indianapolis Colts (11-0)
The clinched the division and can clinch first-round bye this week. If they don't do it this week, they'll do it sometime soon and will probably wrap up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs sometime soon as well.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3)
87% of you thought they'd make the playoffs and that seems like a pretty good bet. They didn't make it look easy against the Browns but they won. With games against Detroit and K.C. left on the schedule (both at home), 10 wins seems like a minimum for this team and that should easily wrap up a playoff spot, if not the division. Cincy and San Diego play each other one more time this season and that game could decide which of those teams gets a first-round bye.

3. San Diego Chargers (8-3)
100% of you thought they'd make the playoffs and it looks like a good bet they will. But after their game at Cleveland this weekend, they don't have another gimme game all season. It'll be a tough road to the playoffs for the Chargers, but I think they'll get there. Beating Cincy and getting that first-round bye would be big for the Bolts.

4. New England Patriots (7-4)
With the way that New Orleans's QB Drew Brees tattooed the defense, you have to be worried about the secondary for the Pats. You also have to worried by the fact they haven't beaten any good teams all season. This team seems like it will make the playoffs by winning a weak division (100% of you voted for them to get in), but unless they can stop good teams, they're not going anyplace once they get there.

5. Denver Broncos (7-4)
They looked a lot better against my Giants. I'll say that much. With two games against KC and one against Oakland, this team should easily make the playoffs which is a big turnaround from last week where they were reeling and only 25% of you picked them for the playoffs. Whether they do make the playoffs will probably have to do with the health of Kyle Orton (what Bears fan ever thought they'd hear that uttered?). This should be a 10 win team and playoff-bound.

6. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5)
Jacksonville gets the #6 seed because of conference record, but I don't feel like their grip on this position is going to hold with Baltimore and Pittsburgh breathing down their necks and 4 other teams not so far behind. Jacksonville plays 4 playoff-caliber teams (the first three of those are at home) and then Cleveland. I truly believe this is an 8-8 team, but they've surprised me so far (and all of you as well since none of you picked them to make the playoffs). I think they fall just short of the playoffs in the end.

7. Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
The win against Pittsburgh should have been a lot easier considering they didn't have to face Big Ben...but in the end, a win is a win. Those teams meet again in Pittsburgh and I feel like it may be a different story then. I feel like this team should be much better but I think they have some issues with Joe Flacco and the defense isn't as dynamic as it once was. That being said, with games left against Detroit, Chicago and Oakland, this team should have a minimum of 9 wins. 10 wins should do the trick which means beating either Green Bay or Pittsburgh in their tough home fields. 62% of you thought they'd make the playoffs, though even after a win against Pittsburgh, I'm still not so sure.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
I don't think anyone would disagree that, healthy, this is a playoff team. The question is can they get their top offensive and defensive player healthy at the same time and make a run for the playoffs? Their schedule the rest of the way isn't so bad compared to the Ravens. They play at home against Oakland, Green Bay and Baltimore and go on the road to Cleveland and Miami. That looks like a minimum of 9 wins, but they need to beat Baltimore to change the tiebreaker and have a chance to get in. 62% of you thought they were getting in last week. If they can get healthy quickly, I think this is a playoff team.

9. New York Jets (6-6)
Two wins in a row inspires all sort of silly confidence. This team didn't look great in beating a bad Buffalo team in a neutral city and their already-shaky rookie QB is now injured. They probably need to run the table to make the playoffs and with games against Indy, Atlanta and Cincy left. 12% of you had confidence last week...I don't see if happening.

10. Miami Dolphins (5-6)

11. Tennessee Titans (5-6)
12. Houston Texans (5-6)

Each of these teams would have to run the table as well to get into the playoffs. Miami plays Houston and Tennessee which means that they'll be beating up on each other. Tennessee is the hottest team of the group and Houston has the easiest schedule. But I don't see any of them running the table. I think they'll all be sitting at home once the playoffs start.

New poll for the AFC up on the right. Let us know what you think!

5 comments:

  1. Long time (as long a time as possible at age 24) Jets fan and I loved watching that New England secondary get torched on Monday night. I really think they will lose another 2 games at least and the Jets will be rearing on them.

    Of course the Jets need to learn to pass the ball first.
    Jets get Indy week 16 (they'll have everything locked up by then) and the Bengals week 17 (same case) so hopefully they can squeak out some wins.

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  2. Watch out Pats fans, the Jets want to rear you. H/T Jason Segel.

    Seriously, Parch, I thought you were going to start your blog post with "Long time reader, first time commenter."

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  3. Jets and Mets fans usually go hand-in-hand (I'd say 85%) so this is the perfect scenario for the Jets fans to get really excited about the playoffs, map out a direction for the playoffs...

    And then find out that their QB is done for the season, lose a bunch of games, get beat by backups in Indy when they still have an outside chance of making the playoffs and then get embarrassed in the last game against Cincy with Ochocinco on the Bengals sidelines racking up the fines and Rex Ryan crying on the Jets sideline.

    It's happening. And Mets fans can nod and understand exactly what I'm talking about.

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  4. Hey Jay, first time long time...

    I am one of the strange Yankees/Jets fans. And my boss is a Mets/Giants season ticket holder (lots of banter in the office) Strange huh?

    Bedingo and Evan were saying yesterday on the radio before the game that it would be "Same old Jets" to lose last night.

    Evan made a good point:

    "Nope, same old Jets would win last night, all the right teams lose on Sunday, Jets are looking good, and they lose to Tampa Bay next weekend."

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  5. I wonder if the odds makers, knowing this Jets karma, will favor the Bucs next week?

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