Hot Stove Coal: My Take on the Granderson Deal

Work got busy yesterday so I didn't get a chance to post about the three-way deal that netted the Yankees Curtis Granderson. I figured I'd break down my thoughts on the deal:

A few points (the picture on the right from Chad Jennings of LoHud shows that Granderson does wear #28 as the Yankees go after World Series #28):

-My initial reaction about the Granderson rumor a few weeks back was that the Yankees tread carefully, but trended on the negative. My problem was that Granderson comes with some negatives (which LoHud's Sam Borden helps to debunk). That said, my mind changed throughout the day. Tyler Kepner seemed to have the same thoughts. I give this deal an A-/B+ right now.

-The reason I say right now is that the Yankees still need--as Keith Law wrote on ESPN--a right-handed caddy. I'm not saying that Granderson won't find a way to hit lefties (many have pointed out that Paul O'Neill did once he got to New York), but the Yankees could use a backup OF that's righthanded, especially if Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui come back. Reed Johnson, as Tyler Kepner tweeted, is a FA and would be a good fit. So would Rocco Baldelli.

-I am worried about Granderson having two down-trending years (though not as worried as NYBD is about Granderson's "average" in a very "average" article). But the Yankees acquired Nick Swisher under similar circumstances last off-season and he was great for them. Ben however pointed out that the Yankees gave up a lot less in that deal. Fair enough, but we pretty much know that Granderson is worth about 3.5-4 wins, even if he doesn't return to his status of 3 years ago.

-And that's because he's an above-average defensive and offensive centerfielder. The Yankees haven't had someone like him roaming center since Bernie Williams was in his prime--and Bernie was never good as Granderson defensively. That defense should help shore up a solid Yankees OF as they continue to get better defensively.

-As for the haul: Phil Coke was a second lefty in the bullpen and is pretty easily replaceable (maybe by Mike Dunn whose removal--Joel Sherman tweeted--was the key for the Yankees pulling the trigger) and Ian Kennedy is no longer a top prospect for the Yanks. Would he have been a useful 6th starter or top AAA arm? Maybe. But the guy threw one inning last year and supposedly has an ego problem (according to an old Pete Abraham post), so I don't have an issue letting him go. The one piece you cringe about giving up is Austin Jackson, an athletic OF who had become a jewel in the Yankee farm system. Trading him leaves the Yankees without any top non-catching position prospect. And while Jackson may become a good player, he wasn't going to be this year and Granderson will be better than him next year as well. I don't love parting with AJax, especially for a non-pitcher, but a prospect is just that: a prospect. And if you believe Jackson's ceiling is Curtis Granderson as The Girl Who Loved Andy Pettitte does, you need to get Curtis Granderson now on a win-now Yankees team.

-FanGraphs gives this deal an overly enthusiastic A+ for the Yankees. I usually take grades like that with a grain of salt, but FanGraphs is usually dead-on with these predictions and here is what Dave Cameron had to say:

From the Yankees perspective, this deal is almost too good to be true. Heading into his age 29 season, Granderson is a legitimate +4 win center fielder signed to a bargain contract for the next four years...and the Yankees are getting him for a variety pack of role players. He instantly makes their team better, giving them a legitimate all-star center fielder who should thrive in Yankee Stadium. For as much as the Yankees have a payroll advantage, they continue to win because Brian Cashman targets the right players. Granderson is a fantastic acquisition for them.

I have to say that this assessment made me feel a little better and Rob Neyer agrees with "his friends". Big League Stew likes this one for the Yankees as well. MLB.com looks at the prospects

-The big winner in this trade may end up being the Tigers. They get--as MLBTradeRumors and others point out--potentially 22 years of control, a few premium young players, and they were the ones who needed to make a move as The Detroit Free Press points out. That's pretty good, though the reason they got to this point--as Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports points out--is because of a bevy of bad decisions and trying to buy a title. Max Scherzer and Edwin Jackson are a wash in my book and Scherzer may end up being better (though I would be worried if I was the Tigers about why Arizona was so quick to dump him). Austin Jackson will step into their OF right away and the two lefties will give them power arms out of the bullpen. Danny Knobler of CBS Sports likes this trade a lot for the Tigers as does Keith Law, Frankie Piliere of AOL FanHouse and others.

-Arizona's role in this was curious (peer pressure?) but I think that Jackson and Kennedy will both pitch well in Arizona and the no-hit NL West. I just think they gave up a lot to get them, though The Arizona Republic likes this deal for the DBacks. With Jackson, Webb and Haren, the Diamondbacks have a front three to go against the duos on the other West squads of Lincecum-Cain and Kershaw-Billingsly. Kennedy needs to be a good #4 to make this trade more palatable.

-Via MLBTradeRumors: "Granderson is owed $5.5MM in 2010, $8.25MM in '11, and $10MM in '12, with a $13MM club option/$2MM buyout for '13". So it's $25.75MM for 3 years or $36.75MM for four years (plus award bonuses). That's reasonable. As IIATMS writes: "For plus defense in CF and 25-30 home runs, I don't think $8.5m AAV is a bad deal. Again, if he tanks, well..."

-This does not spell the end for Melky or Damon or anyone else. The Yankees still have moves to make to fill out their roster and River Avenue Blues gives a few thoughts of where the Yankees move next.. I don't think they're going with Melky in left and Juan Miranda as the DH. Though if the Yankees wanted to deal Melky, MLBTradeRumors points out "the Cubs are one possible suitor." Joel Sherman writes that this increases the Yankees leverage with Damon. This trade does seem to end the Miguel Cabrera-to-the-Red Sox rumors as Pete Abraham writes.

-This actually may be the best thing I heard about Granderson's numbers from Chad Jennings: "One thing to like about Granderson: He’s at his best when he’s pulling the ball. And managed to pull the ball roughly 50 percent of the time last season. And pulling the ball is a good thing for a left-handed hitter to do in Yankee Stadium." Yes it is. As long as he doesn't get too homer-happy at Yankee Stadium, he could have a bounceback year, especially since his last year may have been depressed by bad luck judging from his BAbip. River Avenue Blues and the Detroit Tiger Weblog go more in depth on this and say that the problem was that getting too pull-happy meant a lot of weak pop-ups the other way. Buster Olney also wrote that Granderson hit out of place as a lead-off hitter. If he's lower down in the Yankee lineup without the pressure of leading off, it may be best for the Yankees and Granderson. And Joel Sherman writes the Yankees know Granderson well, having scouted him the last month of the season when the Yankees thought they were playing the Tigers in the playoffs.

-And, lastly, I would be amiss if I didn't mention Granderson's "intangibles". He's supposedly good in the clubhouse and great in the community as Newsday's Wallace Matthews writes. He possesses a lot of Jeterian qualities as Jayson Stark writes. Now is he clutch, Joel Sherman wants to know?

Hopefully this all leads back to championship #28 with #28 roaming CF for the Yankees.