Hot Stove Coal: Nick Johnson Close to Being a Yankee Again

The last piece to the Yankees' off-season puzzle seems like it won't be Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, or Vlad Guerrero. The Yankees are going back to a player they once had come up through their system: Nick "The Stick" Johnson.

Newsday's Ken Davidoff is reporting that Johnson has a deal in place for 1 year, $5.5 million pending a physical. Now, while "pending a physical" with Johnson is a big deal, this deal seems all but done. So what does this mean for the Yankees and was this a good deal? Let's look at what Johnson brings to the table.



As you can see, Johnson's biggest selling point isn't durability. He's only reached 450 PA three times in his career and missed an entire season. He's not exactly RonDL White, but he's close. That being said, Johnson has played his entire career as a first baseman. He had two ill-advised forays into the outfield in 2002 but otherwise, the only other "position" he's played is 89 games at DH while with the Yankees. And as LoHud's Chad Jennings pointed out, Johnson's primary position being DH may limit his injury risk since most of his injuries occurred while in the field.

Johnson's biggest asset right now is his OBP. Johnson has a .402 career OBP which is 9th among active players. 8th on the list is Bobby Abreu, a person who the Yankees hope will emulate in his Yankee hitting. Abreu averaged .295/.378/.465 with the Yankees with 95 doubles, 43 HR, 243 RBI, 190 BB, and a 120 OPS+ over 2 plus seasons in the Bronx. The Yankees could deal with that average of production, though with less Ks and less HRs. And less HRs is probably what you're getting from Johnson as River Avenue Blues points out that his ISO has fallen greatly in recent years.

Johnny Damon would have been a better option--if the price was right. I think that Damon for more than 2 years or more than $13 million a year is way too much. Damon's appeal was in his flexibility of being able to play left as well as DH. Johnson is blocked at 1st base by Mark Teixeira so Johnson's role is either the DH, 1st base when Tex has a day off on the field, or the bench when Jeter or A-Rod need a day at the DH spot.

The Yankees wanted to have flexibility and this is a different type of flexibility. Instead of having the flexibility of being able to play left and DH, the Yankees will have the flexibility of having a good player on a one-year, low-priced contract. If Jesus Montero continues to develop or Nick Johnson does not play well, the Yankees can dump Nick Johnson and not take a large financial hit. Johnson will also be 31 next season while Damon will be 36.

Which brings us to the bigger theme. While the Yankees continually try to get better, they also try to get younger. Like Cameron learned all too well in Ferris Bueller's Day Off, you can't turn back the odometer. Instead of trying to reverse the ages of their aging stars (Jeter, A-Rod, Pettitte, Rivera, Posada, etc.), the Yankees are trying to inject some new (read: youthful) players in their absence. Gone are Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui and in are two new left-handed batters: Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson.

Let's look at the comparison with 2009 numbers:

#2 Hole:

• 2009: Johnny Damon, 36. .282/.365/.489, 36 2B, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 12 SB, 0 CS, 71 BB, 98 K, 126 OPS+, $13MM
  
• 2010: Nick Johnson, 31. .291/.426/.405, 24 2B, 8 HR, 62 RBI, 0 SB, 2 CS, 99 BB, 84 K, 122 OPS+, $5.5MM

#5/6 Hole:

• 2009 Hideki Matsui, 36. .274/.367/.509, 21 2B, 28 HR, 90 RBI, 0 SB, 1 CS, 64 BB, 75 K, 131 OPS+, $13MM
• 2010 Curtis Granderson, 29. .249/.327/.453, 23 2B, 30 HR, 71 RBI, 20 SB, 6 CS, 72 BB, 141 K, 100 OPS+, $5.5MM

Could the Yankees have resigned Matsui instead of Johnson for $1MM more? Sure. But I think the Yankees got as much as they could get from Matsui last year and feel more confident in a younger, more OBP-conscious Johnson. Nick Johnson's OBP was third to Joe Mauer (AL MVP) and Albert Pujols (NL MVP) and fits great into that second hole in front of the big bats. Joel Sherman of the New York Post points out that Johnson saw more pitches than even Nick Swisher last season and killed lefties--two important factors if you're going to be part of this Yankees offense. The speed you lose with Damon (and it was diminishing judging by the fact he only had 12 SB last year), you gain with Granderson (who may be given the green light more in the Bronx). You also have to figure that Granderson and Johnson are both due for bumps in their offensive numbers moving from pitching-friendly parks to one of the more hitter-friendly parks (especially for left-handed hitters) out there. Would they have been a better team with Damon this year? Probably. But I think that two and three years down the line, that contract would have been a mistake. And with the Giants very interested in Johnson, the Yankees didn't have time to wait for Damon and his agent, Scott Boras, to play their game and try to drum up interest.

Could the Yankees still go out and sign Damon, Matt Holliday or Jason Bay to play left? Sure. But I don't see it happening. I think the Yankees are OK with Melky Cabrera manning left (or Brett Gardner in CF and Granderson in LF), even though Steven Goldman of Pinstriped Bible doesn't seem to like that equation. The Yankees are looking ahead to the much more attractive free agent class of 2011 (Joe Mauer, Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, etc.) and will look to spend their money again there. I think the group of players you see now is more or less what you will see come opening day (with one more starting pitcher and maybe a bullpen arm to add). And I think the Yankees, even losing their World Series MVP and their World Series stealing hero are better off than they were yesterday if they complete this signing. Like adding Nick Swisher last year, it's not a deal that makes you excited with anticipation, but I think Yankee fans will come around when they see Nick "The Stick" back in Pinstripes in 2010.