Monday, December 28, 2009

Sorting Out the AFC Playoff Picture

The NFC playoff picture is set (although the seedings are subject to change), but the AFC playoff picture is still very much up in the air. The four divisions have been clinched but 7 different teams are alive for the two wild card spots. Let's look at the possibilities (I've eliminated ties though those open up a whole new bad of worms):

The Denver Broncos are the only team that can get in after losing. The Dolphins are the only team that needs everyone else to lose to get in.

If the New York Jets win: A Jets win vs. Cincinnati would put the Jets in the playoffs and knock the Dolphins out of the playoffs. The Jets cannot clinch a spot by losing.

If the Baltimore Ravens win: A Ravens win vs. Oakland would put the Ravens in the playoffs and eliminate the Dolphins. The Ravens cannot clinch a spot in by losing either.

If the Jets and Ravens both win: If the Jets and Ravens both win, they would get the final two playoff spots.

Now it gets complicated...If the Jets win, Pittsburgh wins, and Baltimore loses: Pittsburgh needs to beat Miami to stay in the hunt. If this happens, the Jets are in. Miami, Jacksonville and Baltimore are out. How about that final spot?
  • If Houston loses to New England, Pittsburgh is in.
  • If Houston beats New England and Denver wins, Denver is in.
  • If Houston beats New England and Denver loses, Houston is in.
Ok...If the Jets win, Pittsburgh loses and Baltimore loses. Still fighting for that last playoff spot...
  • If Denver wins, they are in
  • If Denver loses and Houston wins, Houston is in
  • If Denver loses, Jacksonville beats Cleveland, and Houston loses, Jacksonville is in.
  • If Denver loses, Jacksonville loses, and Houston loses, Denver is in
Deep breath...If the Jets lose and Baltimore wins. Well Baltimore is in and the Jets are out. Let's check out the rest of the scenarios:
  • If Denver wins and Pittsburgh loses, Denver is in.
  • If Denver wins and Houston wins, Denver is in.
  • If Pittsburgh wins and Houston loses, Pittsburgh is in.
  • If Houston wins, but Denver loses, Houston is in
  • If Denver loses, Pittsburgh loses, and Houston loses, but Jacksonville wins, Jacksonville is in
  • If Pittsburgh, Houston, and Jacksonville all lose, Denver is in no matter what they do
One more! Now let's say the Jets and Ravens both lose. The Jets and Ravens are out so let's see who is in...
  • If Houston wins, they are in.
  • If Denver wins, they are in.
  • If Pittsburgh wins and Denver loses, Pittsburgh is in.
  • If Pittsburgh loses and Houston loses, Denver is in no matter what they do
  • If Pittsburgh loses and Jacksonville loses, Denver is in no matter what they do
  • If Miami loses, Houston loses, and Jacksonville loses, Denver is in no matter what they do
  • If Pittsburgh loses, Jacksonville wins, and Denver loses, Jacksonville is in
  • If Pittsburgh loses, Jackonsville wins, and Houston loses, Jacksonville is in
  • If Denver loses, Jacksonville wins, and Houston loses, Jacksonville is in
  • If Miami wins, Houston loses, Jackonsville loses, and Denver loses, Miami is in
Got all that? Vote on the right of who you think will make it as the Wild Card seeds in the AFC
Posted by Andrew Katz at 12/28/2009 03:32:00 PM
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3 comments:

  1. craftyleftyDecember 28, 2009 at 3:39 PM

    Any chance that if the Jets win; they get the #5 seed (and play Cincy the next week in the playoffs)?

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  2. Andrew KatzDecember 28, 2009 at 3:43 PM

    Actually...that very well could happen. I didn't figure out the seedings, but if the Jets win and Denver loses, I think the Jets guarantee themselves the #5 seed and most likely would play Cincinnati the very next week.

    And since the Bengals/Jets game is at 8:20, they'll know all that by then. Will be interesting if the Bengals give it a little bit effort just so they don't have the play the Jets in back-to-back weeks.

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  3. craftyleftyDecember 28, 2009 at 4:05 PM

    I was thinking the opposite- since they may play again the next week; maybe Cincy holds back players.
    Who knows? Just hoping the Jets don't screw it up.

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