Stretch Drive Previews: The AL Central

We started in the AL East and now we head to the American League Central for our Stretch Drive Previews series. This is a division which has had two pennant winner in the past dozen years (the 2005 White Sox and the 2006 Tigers)  and has only captured the Wild Card once (2006 when Detroit and Minnesota both made it). An AL Central playoff team has played the AL East in the playoffs each of the last 7 years, advancing only in 2005 and 2006. With that in mind, let's take a look at the September outlooks for the AL Central teams (% slashes per team are division/wild card/overall playoffs):

Rk	Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	Strk	R	RA	Rdiff	pythWL	Home	Road	1Run	≥.500	<.500	last10	last20	last30
1	MIN	76	56	.576	---	W 1	4.8	4.0	0.8	77-55	41-22	35-34	24-20	28-27	48-29	5-5	13-7	20-10
2	CHW	72	60	.545	4.0	W 2	4.8	4.2	0.6	74-58	38-27	34-33	21-21	22-29	50-31	6-4	9-11	14-16
3	DET	65	67	.492	11.0	L 1	4.5	4.6	-0.1	65-67	43-25	22-42	14-20	26-40	39-27	6-4	11-9	13-17
4	KCR	56	76	.424	20.0	W 1	4.1	5.3	-1.2	51-81	30-34	26-42	25-25	28-44	28-32	4-6	9-11	14-16
5	CLE	53	79	.402	23.0	L 3	4.0	4.9	-0.9	54-78	29-38	24-41	19-17	31-45	22-34	3-7	6-14	11-19
	Avg	64	67	.488			4.4	4.6		64-67	36-29	28-38	20-20	27-37	37-30	4-5	9-10	14-15

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/1/2010.

Minnesota Twins (85.9% / 0.2% / 86.1% chance of making the playoffs according to coolstandings.com, 89.4% / 0.1% / 89.6% chances according to Baseball Prospectus, and 86.6% / <.1% / 86.7% according to PECOTA)

Will the addition of Manny Ramirez make a difference in this race? (CBC)

Last year Minnesota tracked down Detroit at the very end of the season to stage one of the greatest end-of-season comebacks in the Wild Card era. This year, it's Minnesota who tries not to collapse and give up their AL Central lead. While the Red Sox, Phillies and others have been praised for their play despite injuries, the Twins may be even more reslient. They lost All-Star closer Joe Nathan before the season even started and have had 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau for only 81 games (though he amazingly still is tied for the team lead in HR). And yet they're cruising right along in the AL Central. Part of that certainly has to do with a starting pitching staff anchored by Carl Pavano (15-10, 3.52 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 3.94 xFIP) and Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.41 ERA, 2.31 FIP, 3.01 xFIP, 9.72 K/9) and really good defense. But a lot of credit has to go to the depth of the lineup which has forged ahead and put together the 3rd highest wOBA and Runs Above Average (according to FanGraphs) in the majors behind only the Yankees and Red Sox. This is impressive in what has been a pitching-friendly, home-run-suppressing Target Field (where they play Texas, Oakland, and Toronto--their three out-of-division opponents the rest of the way).

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"Kyle Farnsworth...It Couldn't Have Happened To a Nicer Guy!"

So started my conversation with my dad after the latest Yankees walk-off. This team continues to come back and walk-off, making them a deadly team at home this season where they have 57 wins. The only team with more than 49 wins at home are the Red Sox.

They now have 50 comeback wins and 15 walk-offs. The Yankees are an insane 51-16 at home since May 15 (via PeteAbe). Not too shabby for a team that looked, at the beginning of the season, like they didn't have any fight in them when they went down to the Red Sox 8 straight.

The best part of tonight for me (besides the fact that they did this against Kyle Farnsworth)? The fact Joe Girardi left in guys like Cervelli and Hinske and Miranda to bat and run in the bottom of the 9th when he had Jorge Posada's bat ready and able on the bench. Cervelli and Hinske will probably both be on the ALDS roster (at least I think so). Cervelli may be called on to bat in an extra inning game and Hinske may need to run the bases.

And Juan Miranda? It was awesome watching Melky run after him before he even touched first or Nick Swisher be the first guy out to the outfield. This team feels like a close-knit group. You hope that when times get tough in October, they'll stick together like this.

And let's hope there's many more pies to come in October.

Uncle Lou Comes To the Rescue, May Be Watching Weeds

You have got to love Lou Pinella. After Chicago Cubs catcher Geovany Soto admitted smoking pot, Sweet Lou came to his defense. Via ESPN Chicago:

"Look, I have smoked dope one time in my life," Piniella said before the Cubs faced the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field. "And it didn't do a damn thing for me, and I never tried it again. I'm fortunate because of that. A lot of people do. You can even buy it in California from a pharmacy."

Yes, you can, Lou, sort of. Have you been watching this season of Weeds? Because Silas and Doug are opening up their own "pharmacy" now (or is it a farm-acy if you're selling weed?). It's a really good show if you don't watch it.

Anyways, this is not the only World Baseball Classic violation it seems. Sidney Ponson was caught taking what he says are diet pills, but are being described as a "stimulant". I've seen Sir Sidney before and I'm pretty sure that he's not on diet pills. Not positive. But pretty sure. They're certainly not helping his pitching with the Royals (1-5, 7.27 ERA).

So diet pills and pot? Sounds like a college campus to me.

Some Day Of Sports

Today was one of those Sundays where sports ruled.

The New York Metropolitans started out the day. And Johan Santana was dominant for the Mets against the Marlins. But despite 13 Ks and no earned runs from Brohan, he still was hung with the loss as the Mets lost to the Fish (their arch nemesis the past few years).

Next was the Yankees. A cold, rainy day in Kansas City started out fine. Joba allowed only one earned run over 6 innings and handed a 4-3 lead to the bullpen. Bruney got 3 outs and then Marte got 2 more. And then, inexplicably, Girardi decided it was important to go mix-and-match. He brought in Veras who walked the first batter on 5 pitches. Girardi then goes back out to bring in Phil Coke who not only blows the save, but loses the game as well. Soria dominated for the save. I know it's early in the season, but a loss like this stings for the Yanks. Torre overused and abused certain guys in the bullpen (see Scott Proctor's Arm). Girardi micro-manages games (a la Buck Showalter) and the loss has to be hung on him. Other goats include Phil Coke (BS and L), Cody Ransom (.050 BA) and Melky (who had 2 GIDPs).

Next was to the Masters where, despite huge days from Lefty and Tiger, they left some strokes out on the course and it ended up hurting them in the end. There's still a few different guys in it, but Angel Cabrera looks like he's more interested in finishing and getting to the buffet than winning this tournament. Kenny Perry or Chad Campbell seem to be the two frontrunners right now.

Also on TV, the Rangers are playing a meaningless game in Philly...at least for the Broadway Blueshirts. The Broad Street Bullies have home ice advantage to play for. Even so, the Rangers seem to be matching the Flyers as the score is 2-2. Dubinsky has 2 goals. Despite a tremendous start to the season and a lot of promise, Dubi's two goals today only gives him 13 for the season.

There is one baseball game still on that I'm keeping my eye on: Angels vs. Red Sox. The game started off with Bobby Abreu pissing off Josh Beckett who in turn pissed off the entire Halo bench. This led to a Torii Hunter ejection. "Shockingly" no Sox player was ejected. 4-3 Angels in the 7th there.

One last thing. I got a call today from Jay, a contributer on this blog, who wanted to revive the Joba debate after what happened today. I hate rehashing the same argument I give everyone (would you want a great pitcher to pitch 60 innings or 200?), so I pointed out that the Yankees would haven't been in the position to win today had it not been for a really good start from Joba. Look at what happened to the Yankees the first two games of the season when they got really crappy starting pitching? They hardly had a chance to win. But Joba gave them a good chance to win the game today. If it wasn't for Girardi, I think it probably would have been a W. But I'm sure this blown save will bring out the naysayers...

Who Will Make the Hall Of Fame? AL Central Edition

After the Joe Torre book and the A-Rod thing, let's get onto happier baseball topics. So last month I went through the AL East and dissected who will make the Hall of Fame. I put the guys into four groups. To refresh your memory: The first group is sure-fire, first-ballot Hall of Famers, guys who, if they retired tomorrow, would make the Hall of Fame. The second are probable Hall of Famers, guys who should make it as long as they continue along their path or guys who may not make it the first ballot, but will be in eventually. The third are guys that are just short of the Hall of Fame but could get in if they have some big years. The fourth are guys who are really young, but seem like they could be on the Hall of Fame path.

I think the one change I would make from the previous list was to put A-Rod in the second category now. Although I think that some people will never vote for him for the Hall of Fame now, I think that eventually his numbers and the time that will pass will allow him entry.

So on to the AL Central:

Detroit Tigers

Category 1

No one

Category 2

Miguel Cabrera. The stats are quite amazing. This guy has exactly 175 home runs and 650 RBIs at age 25. His career OPS+ is 140. He had a horrible start to last year, couldn't find a position, was called a bust and hit 37 homers (league leading) and drove in 127 runs, while leading the league in total bases...not too shabby for a bad year. Baseball Reference does similar batters through age 25. There are some great names up there like Hank Aaron, Orlando Cepeda, Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, Vlad Guerrero and Al Kaline. But there are two HUGE cautionary tales: Andruw Jones and Ruben Sierra. If Cabrera can stay in shape (which he was not at the beginning of last season) and continue to rake, he may put up some unbelievable numbers someday. The good news for him is that he's an actual great hitter as well as being a great slugger.

Category 3
None. But Gary Sheffield, if he was deemed clean, would have been here. If he hits 23 home runs this year, he'll pass guys like Ernie Banks and Ted Williams and be 18th on the all time list. Let's review, once again the top 25 home run hitters (we'll put a * next to any guy who played in the past 11 years...no real reason for the * but we'll use that): Barry Bonds*, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Jr.*, Sammy Sosa*, Frank Robinson, Mark McGwire*, Harmon Killebrew, Rafael Palmeiro*, Reggie Jackson, Alex Rodriguez*, Mike Schmidt, Jim Thome*, Mickey Mantle, Jimmie Foxx, Manny Ramirez*, Willie McCovey, Frank Thomas*, Ted Williams, Ernie Banks, Eddie Mathews, Mel Ott, Eddie Murray, Gary Sheffield*. So you're telling me we're going to keep 10 out of the top 25 home run hitters out of a museum, the Hall of Frame, because they played in this era? I'm not saying Sheffield should be in, or 500 home runs should be the barometer anymore (or that guys like Ken Griffey, Jr. who never were accused of anything would be held out)...but it's a little ridic.

Category 4
Justin Verlander. I really don't think he'll make it...but who knows. He regressed a lot last season and maybe some of his weaknesses began to shine through. How is this for you? He wins the Rookie of the Year in 2006 with an ERA_ that is 7th in the league. Then in 2007 he goes 18-6, comes in 5th in the Cy Young voting, throws a no hitter, and strikes out almost a batter per inning...except the same year he also allows almost a hit an inning and leads the league in wild pitches and hits batsmen. That leads him to 2008 where he led the league in losses. So needless to say, he may be going in the wrong direction. But if he can right the ship, with a good team and a good pitcher's park behind him, he could make an interesting case for himself down the road.

Chicago White Sox

Category 1

No one

Category 2
Jim Thome. This will be an interesting one. His stats are in the top 10 of every offensive category during the so-called steroids era...yet Jim Thome's name never showed up on a Mitchell Report or BALCO investigation or government investigation. Does that mean he was/is clean? Nope. Could his name be one of the 103 left on that list? Yup. If it isn't, does that make him a lock for the Hall? I don't think so. But if he has another 59 home runs (he hit 111 in the last three seasons), he'll get 600 home runs. The only guys on that list are Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey, Jr., Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds. According to Grey and Black Ink, he's not there, but according to the other two monitors, he's in. I'll leave this one up to the voters to figure out.

Category 3, Category 4
None that I can see.

Minnesota Twins
Category 1
No one

Category 2

Joe Mauer. I debated which category he fit into. But a catcher with two batting titles before he turns 26? I think that guy fits into Category 2. Fangraphs just loves this guy and all the predictions seem to indicate he'll be in the running for more batting titles as the years go on. In those two batting title years, Justin Morneau came in first and second in the MVP voting. That is not a coincidence. Fangraphs estimates that he's been worth over 200 value runs, almost 20 value wins, and over $77 million in just over 4 season in the bigs. Similar batters through Age 25 include guys like Bill Dickey, Tony Lazzeri, Derek Jeter and Rod Carew (though Robinson Cano's name is on the top of the list...so I hope they both follow the same Hall of Fame path). If he can keep this current progression, especially as a catcher, he should find himself in the Hall. And how can you deny a guy whose last name is one letter off from being Bauer?

Category 3
Justin Morneau. The guy has won an MVP and came in second in another voting. The overall stats aren't tremendous, but that has a lot to do with not having a lot around him besides Joe Mauer. He hit less home runs last season (although hit a lot more doubles), but still finished second in the MVP voting because he hit .300/.374/.499 and was in the top 3 in RBIs, Adjusted Batting Runs and Batting Wins. He needs to keep on mashing and hope to pick up a few more MVP awards if he hopes to represent Canada in the Hall of Fame.

Category 4
No one as of now...though guys like Liriano could find themselves back in this discussion.

Cleveland Indians

Category 1, Category 2, Category 3

No one

Category 4

Grady Sizemore. It seems Peter Gammons has been singing this guy's praises from the second he stepped onto a baseball diamond. Sizemore will only be 26 this season and many others are expecting a big breakout, MVP number season from him including Bill James. His Fangraphs numbers look even better than Mauer's. In the same 4+ years, he has over 270 value runs, almost 27 value wins and has been worth $105.1 million. Even factoring in positional differences, Grady Sizemore may actually be a better player than Joe Mauer. If Sizemore breaks out this year, he jumps up to Category 2. If he has two mediocre seasons, he falls off the list completely. Amazingly, the most similar batter through age 25 is Barry Bonds. We'll see what a guy who was so similar through those years does in the next 15 without steroids.

Kansas City Royals

Category 1, Category 2, Category 3

No one. It's amazing in this whole division we've had zero category ones...

Category 4

Joakim Soria. He's young. And we don't know if he'll be a starter or closer. But he was a damn good Rule V draft pickup and he had 42 saves last year at the ripe old age of 24. The most similar pitcher through that same age (mad props to baseball-reference.com for an amazing site, once again) is Bruce Sutter and--like it or not--he's a Hall of Famer. Not saying Soria will be there. But he certainly is young and has a chance.

Agree? Disagree? Did I miss someone? Let me know!