Saturday, January 22, 2011

NYaT Roundtable: NFC Championship Picks

The NYaT Roundtable gave you their picks for the Wild Card round (none of us picked Seattle) and the Divisional Round (none of us picked the Jets), so we're going to try to have someone go for a perfect week as the Conference Championships are being played out. #2 seed vs. a #6 seed in each conference. We'll start in Chicago where the Bears are Packers are playing for the third time this season but the first time in the playoffs since 1941. Here's what our panel thinks:
Jay Cutler vs. Aaron Rodgers III. Winner to the Super Bowl (NYT)

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (Packers favored by 3.5)

Russell: These teams met week 17, but over the last 2 weeks the Bears have played the Seahawks, while the Pack beat Philly and then demolished the Falcons. They have all of the momentum and they are going to beat the Bears. Packers

Ben P: In this game we have two teams that are fairly similar. They both have dominant defenses and depend on their quarterbacks to score points. Given this shared formula, I like the Packers since they have a better and more consistent quarterback as well as better receivers. I think this game will come down to who puts more pressure on the opposing quarterback . Both teams have players that can get at the quarterback, but I think the Packers Offensive Line is better than the Bear's line and Rodgers mobility will also help him buy time to look downfield. The Packers' west-coast style offense will also suit them better than the Mike Martz down the field attack that the Bears will sport. Packers

Sarah: Its tough to judge here. The Bears had it easy last week as the Hawks were never a real threat so hopefully they saved up some energy for this weekend's matchup. I also hear Obama wants to go to the game if the Bears made it to the Superbowl. I still think Rodgers is strong though, and they gave the Falcons a good whooping. I'm going Green Bay. Packers

Jay: Aaron Rodgers's coming-out party as one of the NFL's elite QBs will continue. Aside from the Jets/Pats trash talk, the most compelling storyline of the postseason has been Green Bay's dominance on both sides of the ball, but most notably their offensive production. And it all comes back to Rodgers, whose 77-for-105, 969 yard, 10 TD, 1 INT performance so far in these playoffs has been incredible to watch. Just think: he threw for 366 yards and 3 TDs on the road in the Georgia Dome, where Matty "Ice" Ryan had only lost twice in his entire career. Amazing. He will carry this team to the Super Bowl. Honestly, despite Chicago's resurgence following their dreadful losses to the Giants, Seahawks, and Redskins, is anyone really scared of them? I feel like we are just waiting for the other shoe to drop, perhaps in the form of a classically dreadful Jay Cutler multi-INT stinkbomb. I think the Packers continue their road dominance, winning by 10. Packers

Elissa: Green Bay has the QB I trust more down the stretch and Chicago's not as consistent of a team. I've thought Green Bay was a Super Bowl team all playoffs, so I'm going to stick with them now. Packers

Andrew: I've learned my lesson but overlooking the Seahawks against the Saints and the Jets against the Patriots (and what's really the difference between Rodgers and Brady?). The Packers are favored by more than a field goal on the road in the playoffs and although I don't think a lot of the Bears, I think that may be motivation enough to pick them. After the Giants demolished the Bears early in the season, I felt like they were done for as a team but they've been resilient behind an air-tight defense, an underrated running game, and a scary special teams attack. In Week 17 these two teams played in Green Bay with everything on the line for the Packers and nothing on the line for the Bears and yet the Bears dominated quite a bit of that game. Even though they lost in the end, do you think the may have kept a few plays secret just in case they played them again in the playoffs? Of course. The Packers biggest weakness is the running game and how do they expect to win this playoff game without one? I think while everyone is thinking "Packers blowout" here, I'm going with the disrespected Bears and *gulp* Jay Culter (that was difficult to type). Bears

X Factors

Packers

Jay: Aaron Rodgers. It all comes back to him.

Ben P: James Jones

Russell: Aaron Rodgers had one of the best playoff games ever by a Packer last week, passing for 366 yards and 3 td's. He just hasn't made mistakes and has taken the Packers offense to another level. If Rodgers plays at this type of level then the Packers can't lose. Rodgers makes all of his receivers better, especially Greg Jennings, and the Pack should beat an overrated Bears team.

Andrew: James Starks. Like Obi Wan to Princess Leia, Starks is the Packers only hope--for a running game.

Bears

Ben P: Devin Hester.

Jay: Matt Forte must play well so that Cutler doesn't feel pressured into making unwise throws into traffic.

Andrew: Julius Peppers. They need someone to get to Rodgers and get him out of his comfort zone.

Biggest Weakness

Bears

Russell: Offensive Line-The Packers blitz a lot with the 3-4 scheme and the Bears offensive line has been weak at times this year. Cutler was sacked 52 times this year and if Matthews can get Cutler scrambling he will make bad throws that can lead to easy interceptions

Ben P:  Pass Protection

Jay: Secondary must keep Rodgers at bay

Andrew: Giving Cutler time - To win the Bears need to allow Cutler time to survey the field and make good decisions. When he's rushed, Cutler makes bad throws or holds onto the ball and gets killed by the defense. Too often this season he's had too much to worry about besides throwing to his receivers.

Packers

Ben P: Running the ball on offense

Russell: Running Game. While Rodgers is one of the NFL's best. The Packers have a hard time running the ball. With Ryan Grant out for the year the Packers have had a RB tandem with Starks and fullback Kuhn. Even in the rout against Atlanta the Pack only accumulated 96 rushing yards, and if somehow the Bears prevent the packers from throwing, they could exploit their weakness in the running game.

Jay: Rushing attack is weak sauce.

Andrew: The running game. Isn't it an issue in the playoffs when you can't run the ball? And what makes anyone think the Packers can do so against the Bears? If the Packers get the lead, will they be able to milk the clock or will the lack of running game keep the Bears in it? This could be a huge issue...

What do you think? Let us know your predictions in the comments below.

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