NYaT Roundtable: Divisional Round NFL Picks

Well that was a fun first weekend of football. The first NYaT Roundtable of the playoffs resulted in Ari, Jay and Ben W taking the cake as the best pickers with Ben P and I bringing up the rear. None of us saw the Seahawks winning that game (though, in my defense, I did say they would cover). Now we're up to the big time as the bye weeks are over and the winners go on to the Conference Championship Game. So which teams will advance? Our NYaT panel gives their opinions:

May The Force be with you, Rex Ryan...
...you're going to need it

New York Jets at New England Patriots (Patriots favored by 9)

Ben P says: "It is always difficult when two team plays each other three times in one year. These teams know eachother very well and in these situations I think the team with superior coaching has the edge. Rex Ryan knows defense and has done an excellent job as the Jets head coach, but there is nobody better than Belichik especially when it comes to gameplanning and adjusting mid-game. The Patriots are too good offensively and if they turn this into a shootout, the Jets will be in big trouble." Patriots

Elissa says: "I can't bring myself to make a prediction for the Jets game. I choose to abstain rather than throw my team under the bus. Instead, I'll take this time to follow Rex Ryan and Cromartie's lead...F*#$ Tom Brady and his ridiculous Justin Bieber hair and F*$# Bill Belichick and his stupid cut off sweatshirts. It's personal!" No pick (but check out her post on the "War of Words")

Sarah says: "I'm TRYING to be classy and say to Jets fans I know- hey we each took a game this year - but let's face it: We are going to STOMP them" Patriots

Ari says: "I wish otherwise, but common sense says Brady mauls them. Cromartie will regret mouthing off with each passing slant strike over the middle that he can't cover. In the battle of 4 letter team name, the one that sounds like Mets sees the same result." Patriots

Jay says: "Nothing that Rex Ryan or Antonio Cromartie can say will change their fate: New England will roll at home. Face it, Jets fans, the 2010 Patriots may be boring, robotic, and soulless, but they are a dominant football team. They won their last 8 games and defeated the Jets 45-3 in their last meeting. Tom Brady hasn't thrown a pick in months and Belichick will be ready for whatever defensive schemes Rex Ryan has cooked up. The Patriots also don't make any mistakes, giving up the ball only 10 times this season (!!) and creating more takeaways than anyone but the Giants. Although the Patriots have the home field advantage, there are some things the Jets can do to help their chances: (1) take advantage of New England's bend-don't-break offensive line and get to Brady, (2) stop the Woodhead/Green-Ellis running attack and force Brady to test Darrelle Revis and Cromartie; and (3) ignore McCourty and have Sanchez attack the weaker parts of the Patriots' secondary. But all that said, I still see New England winning relatively comfortably. Double digits are likely." Patriots

Andrew says: I want to find a way to pick the Jets here but I just can't do it. Rex Ryan and company won their Super Bowl last weekend when they finally beat Peyton Manning and the Colts and I see a huge letdown this week against their divisional rivals. I will say this, though. I think that the Jets will cover. My prediction is that Jet preseason cut (one of the all-time horrible personnel moves by Rex Ryan confirmed by anyone with all their lobes intact who saw Hard Knocks), Danny Woodhead, will scramble on 3rd and 9 with less than two minutes left and the Jets out of timeouts, down by 6. A first down seals the game but anything less makes the Pats punt back to Antonio Cromartie and the Jets. Woodhead scrambles and is about to be met by Cromartie when out of no place Tom Brady runs up, pancakes Cromartie, yells "who is an asshole now?", and Woodhead gets the first by a foot. This is followed by an offseason of jokes that Rex Ryan has now lost twice because of a foot." Patriots

Baltimore Ravens at the Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers favored by 3.5)

Jay: "This might not be the most exciting game this weekend (that honor goes to Pats vs. Jets) but it will be the best and closest game. The Ravens and Steelers are big rivals who play physical football. They split the season series, with each win coming by only three points. Pittsburgh is playing at home, where they are historically tough to beat, and they have a historically clutch Super Bowl MVP playing QB. But Baltimore is coming off a huge road win at Kansas City, where they shined in several ways: Flacco played mistake-free football, the two-pronged rushing attacked worked well, and the defense singlehandedly turned the game Baltimore's way in the second half. My prediction is that Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace will combine for a big game-changing play, and the Steelers will win a low-scoring game." Steelers

Ari: "Really a great game. Pit lost to the Jets at home. That wasn't lost on me. Baltimore is rallying around Ed Reed, who is mourning the loss of his brother. That is some powerful heartwarming shit. This one goes to the birds. BTW - Did anyone notice how many damn birds we had in the playoffs this year? Of the 12 teams 4 were birds (Eagles, Ravens, Falcons, Seahawks) plus a man-made bird (Jets). Only one bird, the Cardinals, sat the playoffs out. 4 outa 5 for a third of the playoff field. Pretty good year for birds.)" Ravens

Sarah: "Ravens are solid this year - and I still hate Big Ben" Ravens

Elissa: "This one is also going to be a nail biter to the very end. Both have strong Ds. Both Flacco and Roethlisberger are going to put on a great show - but on a big stage like this I have to give it to Roethlisberger. He's at home, he's got the experience, and he has 2 rings that he can look at for motivation before the game. Although Flacco's probably hungry for a big win, their records are in big Ben's favor (Roethlisberger: 8-2 against the Ravens, Flacco: 2-5 against the Steelers)." Steelers

Ben P: "This game should be a very close, hard fought defensive battle. I think the Steelers win though because their offense has more big-play potential and home field advantage never hurts. The Ravens will shut down the Steelers running game, but they still are soft in the secondary, so if Big Ben gets any time to throw the Steelers will put points on the board." Steelers

Andrew: When you have a close game like this, I think you need to go through the four main parts of the game that truly matter in a playoff game (in my opinion). The first is defense and while the Ravens are better than most give them credit for, this is not the defense that won the 2000 Super Bowl. O the other side, Pittsburgh is 1st in defense according to Football Outsiders so mark number one goes to them. The second one is deep threat and while I really do like the receiving trio in Baltimore, none represent as great a deep threat as Mike Wallace who has quietly developed into one of the best WR in the league. Third I go with quarterbacks who don't make dumb decisions--and while Big Ben makes plenty off of the field, according to a recent ESPN article, he's one of the best not making them on it. Lastly I go with running game and while the Ravens had a large advantage here (and in special teams), it's not enough to make up the other three, plus home-field advantage, plus the fact that the Chiefs were one all-time bad 4th-and-1 play from maybe pulling out the game last week. Steelers

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (Falcons favored by 2.5)

Ben P: "Looking at the Falcons team, I'm amazed that they were able to win NFC. They have a good running game but Turner doesn't scare me, and Matt Ryan is solid but not elite. Their defense is also good but not great. While everyone talks about Rodgers and how good he is (and he is quite), it's the Packers' defense that makes this team dangerous. They can stop the run and the pass equally and with Matthews and Woodson they aren't strangers to forcing turnovers. I think the Packers offense will have success passing the ball and if James Jones decides to catch the ball, we might even see a blow out." Packers

Elissa: "I think this game is close to a toss up. Both Ryan and Rodgers can lead a 2 minute drill (they showed that in Week 12). I think their offenses are pretty comparable, but Green Bay has the edge defensively. Ryan may already be having nightmares about what Clay Matthews may do to him on gameday. Atlanta barely eked out a win against Green Bay in week 12 - I just don't see it happening twice." Packers

Sarah: "Rodgers over Ryan" Packers

Ari: "I think it could go either way, but a rested Hotlanta team at home should take this one." Falcons

Jay: "The winner of this game goes to the Super Bowl. There's no way Jay Cutler can play two error-free games in a row, and Seattle won't have its "12th man" is gone for the rest of the playoffs. With a trip to Dallas on the line, expect a hard fought battle inside the Georgia Dome, which is certainly a huge advantage for Atlanta. But defense wins in the playoffs, and the Packers have that in spades. They did a great job containing Mike Vick and DeSean Jackson last week (only 16 points, well below Philly's regular season scoring average) and that should continue vs. Matt Ryan and Roddy White. I think Aaron Rodgers extends his coming-out party as a truly Top 5 elite QB with another gem. Look for the Packers to snatch a huge win on the road." Packers

Andrew: I think people are really overbuying the Packers and really undervaluing the Falcons. You're talking about a team that has been decimated by injuries all season and barely beat a Chicago Bears team to make the playoffs against a Falcons team that doesn't lose under their dome. The Packers have the better defense and a slightly better QB but with Roddy White as a deep threat and a FAR superior running game, I think the Dirty Birds will fly all the way to the Super Bowl. And here's the spot that I think the Packers are going to suffer: special teams. Matt Bryant and the Falcons special teams was ranked number one through 18 weeks and I think they will be the difference maker this weekend." Falcons

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (Bears favored by 10)

Jay: "Seattle needs to contain Jay Cutler if it wants to stay in this game. The Seahawks have a notoriously weak secondary which will be exposed if their pass rush can't put any pressure on Cutler. That, in turn, will force Matt Forte and the Bears' rushing attack to control the clock and the game, which is a better matchup for the Seahawks' defensive line. In an otherwise boring and forgettable game, look for something special on special teams: in Devin Hester and Leon Washington, both the Bears and the Seahawks have real playmakers. As for a prediction, I see the Bears winning by a touchdown." Bears

Ari: "Seattle over Chicago!!! The 2007 Giants all over again!! Wait, no, they have no defense. Chicago does. On a cold Soldier Field their luck runs out. Bears win and advance to the NFC title match." Bears

Sarah: "Still not 100% sure how they beat the Saints - but the Hawks stop here." Bears

Elissa: "I think that this game will be closer than most people are predicting. Although Chicago won the NFC North, I am never really sure which Chicago team will show up. As long as they protect Cutler and have a decent running game, I think they'll come away with a win. I think Seattle will give them a run for their money though - they're riding high after last week's win and I still don't trust Cutler 100%." Bears

Ben P: "I'm still not sure how the Seahawks won last week, but I think their miracle run has to come to an end this week. The Bears are inconsistent offensively as any team with Jay Cutler and a bad Offensive Line will be, but they're defense is flat out nasty and I don't see how the Seahawks score on the frozen tundra in Chicago. Lynch won't be breaking any long runs against a very good Chicago front seven and I don't think Hasselbeck throws for another 4 touchdowns. The Seahawks beat this Bears team earlier in the year, so they won't sneak up on the Bears like they did to the Saints either." Bears

Andrew: If there was ever a one-and-done type team, it looked like the Seahawks were it last week, but after they won, I now say that if any team looks like a one-and-done team, it's the Bears. If anyone saw the Bears-Packers game to end the season, they will understand why. The Bears played their best game of the season against a tough Packers team playing for a lot more. They fought hard and kept the score low. They were driving at the end to try to tie the score when everyone in the building knew Jay Cutler was throwing a pick to end it--and then he did so. I'm going on a limb (and, really half-joking) and not only picking the worse team to cover here but with all the momentum in the Seahawks favor, I'm going with them to win outright. Really, I just want people to realize that the ONLY way the Seahawks can have a winning record is to win the Super Bowl and then to have to process that for two weeks of talk radio when they win the NFC Title game. It's too delicious a story to pass up for Jay Cutler and the boring Bears. Seahawks

So what do you think? Who do you have in the Wild Card weekend? Let us know in the comments below.