Wednesday, January 5, 2011

NYaT Roundtable: Filling Out a Full Hall of Fame Ballot

Once in a while I'll hit post and think that something I've blogged about has been posted. This is one of those times. I wrote up NYaT's Hall of Fame Ballot about a month ago, hit "publish post"...and, well, it isn't there. So I head back to fill out our hypothetical Hall of Fame ballot before the actual results are announced. It's never been an easy job but I think it's even harder this year with so many guys on the ballot who could theoretically go either way. We decided to give you a quick blurb on everyone. So here we go: NYaT's Hall of Fame ballot
NYaT like Alomar for the Hall of Fame in 2011 (KC Star)

Class of 2011

Roberto Alomar: A unanimous selection by our panel and rightfully so. Craig Biggio, Ryne Sandberg and Jeff Kent were all great but Alomar has been the best second baseman I've seen play--and the numbers back it up. Jay said: "John Hirschbeck might disagree, but Alomar's the best 2B since Ryne Sandberg. 12 straight All Star selections. Career .300 hitter who played at least 140 games in 14 of 16 seasons. Not a power guy but topped 100 RBIs twice. HOF-worthy in my book." And Ben W chimes in: "If it weren't for the spitting incident he probably would have been in last year.  Probably best all around second baseman of the last 50 years." I agree: Alomar's history-making moment is at hand.

Jeff Bagwell: I can't say how much issue I have with people leaving Bagwell off of their ballots. Bagwell was the ultimate package of power, OBP, speed, and defense...and he did most of it while playing in the ultimate pitchers haven of the Astrodome. Ben says "Great offensive player, run producer, and base runner (202 career SBs).  Also good defender.  Gets my vote." Jay adds: "University of Hartford, whattt!!  Seriously, one of the big boppers of the Steroid Era who has never been the subject of a rumor.  Played his whole career in Houston and put up ridiculous numbers that get him into the Hall despite not reaching 500 HRs." MVP and Rookie of the Year. Another unanimous selection for the NYaT voters and rightfully so for one of the best firstbasemen not only of our generation...but of all time. I agree with HardballTalk's Craig Calcaterra: it sounds like steroid McCarthyism at work here.

Bert Blyleven: Not unanimous, but the NYaT ballot gets it right and puts him in. I was skeptical about his candidacy but I've read a ton of really compelling arguments and I've joined the fray. Ben was our one contrarian: "Career longevity certainly helped him.  Lots of strikeouts but not a great winning percentage." If you want to read the case for and against, here is an excellent summary.

Barry Larkin: I have to admit I fluctuated as I filled out this one and Larkin just missed in my book. He was right on the border of our voting requirements but got in when all was said and done. Jay voted for him, saying, "Larkin had 12 All Star selections, an MVP, 379 SBs with just about 200 HRs, and a career .295 average.  Also won 3 Gold Gloves.  Along with Ripken and Ozzie, one of the 3 best SS of his generation." Ben joined me in waiting: "at the time, his offensive production was considered superb for a shortstop.  I think he'll get eventually but he doesn't standout to me at this point." Here is one compelling argument: at least in the regular season, Larkin and Jeter are awfully similar. The postseason and the durability is what sets Jeter apart in my opinion.

Just Missed

Fred McGriff: McGriff was one of the closest to being elected without actually getting in, though I don't see it. The Crime Dog was a solid player throughout his career but nothing about him screamed "Hall of Fame" to me. I think he may get in eventually and Ben agrees with me: "His HOF worthiness is debated.  At some point I think he'll get in because he's career numbers are really impressive." USA Today thinks that McGriff has a long road to induction.

Tim Raines: Our other "just miss". It's really too bad we saw him at the end of his career in the Bronx because this was a heck of a player. Even at the end of his career he could still do all the things to help the Yankees win. A stolen base machine (808 SB), he was able to do so at an amazing 85% success rate. Bill James and Rich Lederer do a great job of outlining his candidacy. Ben was on the fence: "If there was a poor man's Rickey Henderson, it was Tim Raines.  800 SBs is no small feat.  He'll get in eventually." He better

Better Luck in 2012

Harold Baines: I just don't see it. A solid player who put up Ok numbers but really never did anything exceptional which is not good for a guy who spent much of his career as a DH. Besides his accumulated hit total (2,866), I think that Baines would be off the ballot completely. Ben disagrees: "I originally said no, but on second look his numbers are fantastic."

Edgar Martinez: If you're not going to play the field, you better be so exceptional with the bat that you're an undisputed Hall of Famer. I don't see that with Edgar. The man killed the Yankees but his overall body of work just isn't there in my book. Jay voted him in saying: "Edgar is a tough call, but I'll go out on a ledge and vote for him.  Truly a revolutionary DH who instilled pure fear in Yankees fans whenever he stepped up to the plate.  The numbers don't do justice for his pure hitting abilities.  More walks than Ks, and a lifetime .312 hitter with 7 All Star selections and 2 batting titles.  I'd give it to him." Ben went the complete opposite way and said: "His career totals are actually far lower than one would expect based on memory of him.  Should have been a DH his whole career."

Jack Morris: A lightening-rod candidate among baseball bloggers, I just don't see it. He pitched great in a big game in the playoffs but if that was all it took for induction, El Duque may be preparing his acceptance speech. Ben agreed: "The ultimate big game pitcher.  His career numbers are very very good, but not stellar.  I think he'll find his way in eventually." Tyler Kepner of the New York Times voted yes but I just don't see it and agree with ESPN's Rob Neyer that he just doesn't pass muster.

Make You Think Twice...but No

Larry Walker: A really interesting candidate who is going to be left off many ballots due to his home park and the era he played in. Still a fantastic player and a borderline candidate for the Hall. MVP, 7-time Gold Glove winner, 3-time batting champ and career line of .313/.400/.565 with as many HRs as Harold Baines. Tough, tough call.

Alan Trammell: Ben says: "good hitter from the shortstop position during the 80s but not getting in on my ballot." He may be better than he's given credit for but I don't think it will be enough to get him into the Hall.

John Franco: A classic compiler who put up some pretty good numbers...but not Hall-worthy.

Juan Gonzalez: A tremendous slugger who was a part of an era of baseball that is not going to look kindly on one-dimensional sluggers. Still, 434 HR nothing to sneeze at no matter how he got there (and home park certainly played a factor here too). Jay says "similar numbers to Bagwell, but for some reason I am more suspicious of his performance.  Falls just short in my mind." Ben says "At one point he could have finished his career as one of the greatest right-handed hitters of all time.  However, can't deny the numbers."

Kevin Brown: This is a player who may be better off down the road than he is now. Fantastic pitcher who finished in the Top 6 of Cy Young voting 5 times, but end of career was marred by Yankee meltdown. His huge contract will play against him when voting occurs as unfair as that is. Ben writes: "Probably had the best power sinker of his era but not HOF worthy at this point." Jay says: "Brown is close thanks to a stellar career ERA but just not enough Ws to make it."

Don Mattingly: A lot of love for Donnie Baseball but not enough to get him into the Hall. A tremendous player whose back may keep him out of the Hall of Fame will never keep him out of the hearts of Yankees fans everywhere. Ben agrees: "As much as I would love to say yes I can't."

Not Quite...

Lee Smith: Don't be fooled by the save totals: Smith is not a Hall of Famer. Jay disagrees: "Only here for pure save count.  Longevity counts for something!" It counts for something...just not in Hall voting. If it did, I don't think Jamie Moyer or Omar Vizquel will ever retire.

Mark McGwire: What if he'd never gotten in front of Congress...

Rafael Palmerio: Ditto

John Olerud: Olerud and Will Clark are statistical twins. I was surprised when I saw the numbers (.295 BA, .398 OBP)...but they're still not good enough. Here's why Edgar Martinez is not a Hall of Famer: John Olerud played a position, played it exceptionally well (career UZR of 100.5), and he's still not a Hall of Famer. Here's FanGraphs' Jack Moore examining Olerud's case. I still am convinced that if Olerud doesn't step on his bat, the Yankees win the 2004 ALCS. Alas...

Dave Parker: Hall of Very Good. Ben is on the fence of Hall of Fame, though: "Certainly borderline.  Andre Dawson getting in certainly helps his case, as they compare similarly."

Dale Murphy:  Ben says: "Another really good hitter but not HOF worthy, yet."

YES Network; No Ballot

Al Leiter: Ben writes: "Came into his own with the Marlins and the Mets and was one of the better pitchers in the NL when he was with the Mets but certainly not HOF worthy."

Tino Martinez: Jay writes: "Deep down I want Tino and Donnie Baseball to make it, but their numbers fall just short."

Not a Chance

Carlos Baerga: Mets fans laugh at this

Bret Boone: Ben says "Had his few big years with Seattle.  Solid player and good defender but definitely not HOF."

Marquis Grissom: Ben says: "Solid player but the onlyl thing that stands out are his stolen bases."

Lenny Harris: Pinch hitting is not Hall of Fame

Bobby Higginson: I once yelled at a Yankee-Tiger game "Hey Bob-O!" in my best Bobby's World accent and Higginson turned around and laughed. Weird moment

Charles Johnson: Ben says: "May have been the best defensive catcher in the NL when he played and had some pop but that's about it."

Raul Mondesi: One of the most frustrating Yankees of my liftetime

Kirk Rueter and Benito Santiago: I remember them as San Francisco Giants...and not Hall of Famers

B.J. Surhoff: True story: someone listed Surhoff...but not Robbie Alomar on his ballot. This is why ballots should be taken away for stupidity.

So what do you think of our list? Let us know in the comments below!

4 comments:

  1. Just fixed a few typos/errors in the post (thanks Ben for pointing them out).

    Someone also pointed out to me that I may be overlooking Trammell. Went back and he may be right. Trammell looks like he has no shot at the HOF but the stats show that he certainly deserves a second look: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1013157_335_826_1012186_ograph_%20_1_5_2011.png

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  2. Alomar and Blyleven in. Here's the official voting:

    Roberto Alomar 523 (90.0%), Bert Blyleven 463 (79.7%), Barry Larkin 361 (62.1%), Jack Morris 311 (53.5%), Lee Smith 263 (45.3%), Jeff Bagwell 242 (41.7%), Tim Raines 218 (37.5%), Edgar Martinez 191 (32.9%), Alan Trammell 141 (24.3%), Larry Walker 118 (20.3%), Mark McGwire 115 (19.8%), Fred McGriff 104 (17.9%), Dave Parker 89 (15.3%), Don Mattingly 79 (13.6%), Dale Murphy 73 (12.6%), Rafael Palmeiro 64 (11.0%), Juan Gonzalez 30 (5.2%), Harold Baines 28 (4.8%), John Franco 27 (4.6%), Kevin Brown 12 (2.1%), Tino Martinez 6 (1.0%), Marquis Grissom 4 (0.7%), Al Leiter 4 (0.7%), John Olerud 4 (0.7%), B.J. Surhoff 2 (0.3%), Bret Boone 1 (0.2%), Benito Santiago 1 (0.2%), Carlos Baerga 0, Lenny Harris 0, Bobby Higginson 0, Charles Johnson 0, Raul Mondesi 0, Kirk Rueter 0.

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  3. The good news for Larkin, Morris, Bagwell, Raines, et al is that the most impressive players joining the ballot next year are Bernie Williams and Tim Salmon. And since neither one is a Hall of Famer, Blylevin and Alomar drop off because of being voted in, and Parker drops off because of being on for 15 years there's a lot more room for them to be included. Next year is certainly the year if they want to take advantage of a lack of competition.

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  4. I do not beleive that Bert be home Blyleven should have gotten in, but I have not seen the analysis. I just don't think he was ever great. Dale Murphy was the top player in the league for a few years as was Andre Dawson. Blyleven weas never a top 5 pitcher in his career, form what I can remember. Al Leiter 4 votes.... i didn't know Michael kay had 4 votes. I do think larkin and Raines should and will make it.

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