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| Overcoming injuries like Kiwanuka's is a sign of a good team (Star-Ledger) |
And it really doesn't feel too much different than last year.
At the quarter mark last year, the Giants were 4-0 and looked unstoppable. I predicted 11 wins, but Jay was more bold saying they were a 13-win team "at worse". Yeah, well, it was much worse. The injuries piled up. They got embarrassed on Monday Night Football to fall to 5-4. The Giants finally won their first game in 42 days and looked like they could jump right back into the playoff race. And then they laid down to end the season.
So what's different a year later? Well Big Blue has turned into "Jet Blue" and the Giants offense seems to be more in sync. Osi Umenyora is back as a defensive force and Perry Fewell's defenses are not just imaginative, they're effective. But although the defense has looked better, they still have allowed the opponents to stay in the game every game this season--a bad sign for a team that's supposed to go deep into the playoffs. They turnover the ball way too much and although Eli Manning is probably on his way to a Pro Bowl, he still makes decisions that make us all show our "Manning Face". The special teams is anything but special and actually has been the Giants biggest problem area. And let's not forget this team is less than a month away from calls for Tom Coughlin to be fired.
My thoughts? I think this is a playoff team, but the road there is not going to be easy. The Giants have a bye week at the worst possible time considering they're hot and they're healthy. They come back from the bye and go right to Seattle to play a Seahawks team who is very, very good at home, play Dallas at home in a very winnable game, and then they have to go to Philly for a very tough division match-up. After playing Jacksonville and Washington at home (again, two winnable games) the G-men's last 4 games will truly test their might as they play at Minnesota, host the Eagles, and then close at Green Bay and at Washington.
If I had to predict, that's a 9-5 or 10-6 team at the worst, but last year taught me never to count those chickens before they've truly hatched. This Giants team is deeper this year but an injury to Eli Manning or Ahmad Bradshaw (the NFL's leading rusher) could spell doom for the Giants. But for some reason I have confidence this team will learn from last year's mistakes and take advantage of that depth when injuries come. Last year, an early injury to Kenny Phillips seemed to doom their season; this year, an early injury to Mathias Kiwanuka just became a rallying cry for the rest of the team. I see this team making the playoffs.
What about you? Do you feel good about this team? Feel frustrated they can't close out teams? Worried about the special teams coming back to bite them? Or are you sold on "Jet Blue" and this passing game?
As Steve Serby of the New York Post writes: "Last Rodeo for the Cowboys. Ride 'em Giants."
Wanted to add this great chart from ESPN here at the bottom. Lesson, don't blitz Eli Manning:
ELI MANNING TO HAKEEM NICKS
When Eli Manning was under pressure Monday against the Cowboys, he turned to Hakeem Nicks. The two connected for two touchdowns when the Cowboys sent five or more pass rushers.| Pass rushers: | 4 or fewer | 5 or more | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comp-Att | 2-4 | 7-10 | |
| Yards | 25 | 83 | |
| Yds per rec | 6.3 | 8.3 | |
| Passer rtg | 30.2 | 134.6 | |
| Source: ESPN Stats & Information | |||
Posts
A few big reasons why I see good things for the 2010-11 Giants...
ReplyDeleteFirst, as Andrew mentioned, Ahmad Bradshaw is the NFL's leading rusher. Last year, the Giants were still trying to figure out the best mixture of Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. This year, there is no question -- Bradshaw is the premiere running back on this team. Jacobs's role is to spell Bradshaw here and there, and to get a yard or two in third-and-short situations. The best part is that Bradshaw is making this move look brilliant. He's learned to break tackles and turn what used to be 3-4 yard dashes into long runs. In fact, Bradshaw is leading the NFL with 10 runs of 20+ yards. the next closest RB has only 6 runs. Wow.
Second, the secondary is healthy and playing well. Corey Webster might be having his best season, and Kenny Phillips is impressing everyone after missing nearly all of last season. Deon Grant has been a really great surprise, 4th among DBs in tackles, 3rd in pass deflections, and tied for 1st with 2 INTs. This is all especially important with the Giants' pass rush, which forces opposing QBs to throw the ball while hurried or being hit. You want your DBs aggressive in that situation.
Third, you can't say enough about the pass rush. Osi, Kiwanuka, Tuck, and Cofield have 19 total sacks in 7 games. Not to mention the 5 QBs they knocked out, as Andrew mentioned. Despite some late game lapses, this is how you win in the NFL.
Finally, Eli. He's throwing well because he finally has an elite group of receivers to throw to. Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith are both Top-15 WRs in the league in terms of receiving yards, and no other WR has any many TDs as Nicks (8). Once Manning learns to limit his picks (that last INT against Dallas was inexcusable) look for this team to really pile on the scoring. Very exciting stuff!
So what's your win prediction for this team? Last year you were extremely confident and the team stumbled down the stretch as we ignored all the warning signs that were there. This team has had a relatively soft early season schedule and I worry that we forget that this team is turnover-prone and horrific on special teams (many of use were there for that Titans game). I think this team is going to be a playoff team, but I think that there are still holes. That being said, I am very excited about this team, especially since the NFC looks so weak.
ReplyDeleteThe key is health. If Bradshaw stays healthy -- remember, he had 3 surgeries in the offseason, one for his ankle and two to insert screws into both feet -- I like their chances. If Eli stays healthy -- and like we saw with Tony Romo, injuries can happen in the blink of an eye -- I like their chances. If Osi stays healthy -- he is only 0.5 sacks behind the league leader -- I like their chances.
ReplyDeleteSo there are a lot of "ifs" and there are holes, too. Matt Dodge has looked good recently, but his punting game was the worst I'd ever seen earlier in the year. He still needs improvement and could regress at any time. The secondary has given up a lot of big pass plays, helping the opposition to stay in games. And turnovers may be the biggest problem of all. The Giants are WORST in the entire NFL with 21 turnovers. That has to stop.
All of that said, let's take a look at their schedule. Qwest Field is a tough road game, but they should win in Seattle. Dallas at home should be another win (all praise Jon Kitna). Jacksonville at home should be a win. And you have to figure that the Giants will, at the very least, split their home-and-home games with Washington and Philadelphia.
The two close games are Minnesota and Green Bay. There are too many variables to really know at this point how these matchups will play out. Will Brett Favre be 100%? Will he even play with his broken ankle? Will Green Bay still be banged up in Week 16? Will they have already locked up a playoff spot and thus be resting their starters? I don't know. So I'll guess that they'll beat Minnesota and lose to Green Bay.
That gives us wins against Seattle, Dallas, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Washington, and Minnesota. Thus, losses versus Green Bay, Philadelphia, and Washington.
6-3 the rest of the way for an eventual record of 11-5. That's my prediction.
THE MIAMI HEAT LOST.
ReplyDeletesorry, just wanted to write that.