Thursday, October 14, 2010

Breaking down the ALCS Matchup

Thought I'd offer a detailed comparison of the Rangers and Yankees heading into game 1 of the ALCS tomorrow night.

Hitting:
Both teams feature equally potent lineups, with power at multiple positions.  Each team features a league MVP candidate (Cano and Hamilton).  Statistically speaking, the Yankees are statistically better in some of major offensive categories, including OBP, runs scored, and slugging.  Texas did lead the league as a team in batting average (.276 vs .267 for the Yanks), but the other statistics would seem to indicate that the Yankees are statistically superior at scoring runs.  Nevertheless, both teams are capable of scoring runs and there are very few hitters to be taken lightly.
Advantage: Even.

Speed:
Once again, both teams feature a few players for whom speed is a major part of their game.  For the Yankees, Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner bring the lightening, while the Rangers rely on Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon.  Texas stole more bases this year, but the Yankees did so at a greater success rate.  Neither Bengie Molina nor Jorge Posada are at their best any more, so don't expect them to be particularly efficient at controlling the running game.  Brett Gardner will need to up his aggressiveness on the basepaths if the Yankees want to use this factor to their advantage.  Also worth noting - Texas had the highest success rate of going from first to third this year (c/o Jack Curry).  Yankee outfield defense will have to keep this in mind when making their throws.
Advantage: Even.

Defense
The Yankees feature strong defense at several positions, including first base, second base, left field, and center field.  Derek Jeter may not possess the increased range that we saw from him last year but it's the postseason and he always manages to up his game defensively in October.  A-Rod has below average quickness and range at this point due to his injured hips but he still has a strong arm.  Nick Swisher has improved defensively and gives them decent defense in right field.  Their most glaring weak spot defensively is Posada, who continues to allow passed balls.  Texas will be sure to take advantage of this.  The Rangers also feature strong defense at several positions.  Elvis Andrus may have the best shortsop's arm in the game.  Ian Kinsler is solid at second base.  Nelson Cruz has a fantastic arm and Josh Hamilton can cover a lot of ground if he's healthy.  Bengie Molina calls a good game but is not particularly athletic behind the plate.
Advantage: Yankees by a small margin.

Starting Pitching
For the second straight year, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee will take on the roles of team aces within the same series.  Cliff Lee was fantastic against Tampa Bay, throwing a complete game in game 5.  CC Sabathia was average in his one start against Minnesota, but I expect to see better out of him this series.  The Yankees have the advantage in that Cliff Lee will not start until game 3 which means he only has one guaranteed start.  Also, according to Rangers GM Jon Daniels who was on WFAN earlier today, Cliff Lee has never pitched on short rest.  The Yankees have committed to AJ Burnett in game 4 but don't count out CC Sabathia on short rest.  The Yankees clearly have the advantage with their secondary starters.  Andy Pettitte proved to us in the last series why he's still pitching and Phil Hughes showed us what we all know he is capable of.  AJ Burnett will start one game this series and as far as the Yankees are concerned, he'll either throw a gem or he'll get in trouble early and they will pull him quickly in favor of Sergio Mitre or Dustin Moseley.  Converted reliever CJ Wilson had a great first year as a starter and Tommy Hunter was also solid.  However, Tommy Hunter is basically the Rangers' version of Brian Duensing and we all know how well that worked out for the Twins last Saturday.  And Wilson walked 93 batters this year, which bodes well for the ever-patient Yankees.  Colby Lewis, who supposedly figured out how to pitch in Japan this year, had a good year back in the Majors.  He is a strikeout pitcher and I could see him pitching well against the Yankees.
Advantage: Yankees

Relief Pitching
Both teams feature strong bullpens.  Darren O'Day, Darren Oliver, and Alexi Ogando did a great job setting up for Rookie of the Year candidate Neftali Feliz, who himself was one of the best closers in the league this year.  For the Yankees, mid-season pickup Kerry Wood has solidified the 8th inning for the Yankees and pitchers Boone Logan and David Robertson have done a great job this postseason.  Of course, their is the X factor for the Yankees that plays into every series and that's The Great Rivera.  After a shaky September, Mo has looked dominant in each of his appearances so far.  He is locating his pitches well and hampering hitters from making solid contact.  The Rangers got to Rivera twice this year, but one of those blown saves occurred during Mo's less than spectacular month of September.  The Yankees usually love to do damage against Darren Oliver and Neftali Feliz was shaky during his first postseason series.  As long as Mo is pitching like Mo, there's no contest in this department.
Advantage: Yankees

Manager
Ron Washington is a candidate for Manager of the Year.  From what I know about him, he is not much of a micro-manager and tends to just let his players play.  This is his first time managing in the postseason and managed to get his team to escape from losing their series in a Tampa Bay comeback (with thanks to Cliff Lee of course).  The Yankees feature the opposite from Girardi, who is in love with "matchups."  This has gotten the Yankees in trouble in the past.  With the exception of using Boone Logan against a hitter like Josh Hamilton, Girardi just needs to go with the hot arm out of the bullpen, no matter the matchup.  However, Girardi did guide the team to a World Series last year and has the experience that Washington does not.
Advantage: Yankees

Overview
The Rangers feature many players who are making their first postseason appearances and the team just won their first postseason series in franchise history.  They also nearly blew a 2-0 series lead to the Rays but escaped disaster with the help of Cliff Lee.  Whether they let their guard down after taking that lead is debatable, but they did manage to win the series and what happened in the last round is history.  The same goes for the Yankees.  They won games 1 and 2 against the Twins in come from behind fashion and sealed the deal by stomping on them in game 3.  However, that series also ended, almost a week ago.  What the Yankees do have on their side is experience.  The core four is still intact and the rest of the team is one World Championship's worth wiser.  Some say that winning all of the time makes you appreciate winning less and the perpetual loser can appreciate the glory of winning to a far greater extent.  However, I've always believed that the more you win, the hungrier you get to win again and thought of being anything other than a winner is unholy.
Advantage: Yankees

So it appears that the Yankees have the edge in this series.  Thoughts?

2 comments:

  1. I think you have to give the Rangers the edge in speed. Not only are the the faster team overall, but running on Jorge Posada (15% caught stealing and 8 passed balls) and Francisco Cervelli (14% caught stealing with a league-leading 13 errors)

    Treanor and Molina aren't great, but even a slipping Molina still threw out 23% of base runners and allowed only 4 passed balls.

    The Rangers aggressiveness could backfire here, but their speed is much more likely to be an advantage than that of the Yankees.

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