Thursday, October 21, 2010

The Clutchest of the Clutch: Best Yankee Playoff Hitting Performances Since 1995

A fan sitting behind me at the bleachers yesterday was remarking how amazing it was that Robinson Cano had gone from "un-clutch" to "clutch" and how Alex Rodriguez had gone from a playoff zero to a playoff hero. I remarked to my dad that we forget that A-Rod was really good in the 2004 playoffs before the whole team (including him) collapsed. We remember certain performances by guys but forget others. But which individual performances helped the Yankees the most to win games? We can debate if "clutch" actually exists, but there is a way to measure how much someone contributed to a Yankee playoff win. Using Win Probability Added (WPA) from Baseball-Reference, here are the Top 10 clutchest of the clutch Yankee hitters since the Wild Card Era:
Where will Jose Vizcaino's 2000 World Series heroics rank? (ESPN)

#1: Alex Rodriguez, 2004 ALDS Game 2

Alex Rodriguez shows up quite a bit at the top of this list. This performance--hitting #2 in the lineup--was the highest WPA of any Yankee player since 1995 with .684. In this game A-Rod went 4-for-6 and helped the Yankees to a big win after getting blanked in Game 1 at home. He singled and scored a run in the third, hit the go-ahead home run in the 5th, and hit an RBI single in the 7th to make it 5-3 Yankees. But his biggest hit came in the bottom of the 12th inning. Minnesota had gone ahead in the top of the inning and it looked like the Twins were going to leave New York with two wins. But facing Joe Nathan in his third inning of work, the Yankees got two on with one out for A-Rod who took a 1-1 pitch to left center for a game-tying, ground-rule double. The Yankees would win it two batters later when Hideki Matsui hit a sacrifice fly, but A-Rod's big hits contributed most to the win.

#2 Scott Brosius, 1998 World Series Game 3

There was a reason that Brosius won the World Series MVP in 1998. Brosius hit 6th for the Yankees in this game and was their only hitter with more than one hit, going 3-for-4 and putting up a .624 WPA. In a scoreless game, Brosius singled in the top of the 5th but Sterling Hitchcock let him go no further striking out Shane Spencer and Joe Girardi. The Padres took a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the 6th, and Brosius answered right back with a home run as the leadoff hitter. The Yankees would score one more that inning but trailed 3-2 when Trevor Hoffman, one of the top closers in the history of the game, came on in the top of the 8th. With two on and one out, Brosius hit a 2-2 pitch out of the park and put the Yankees ahead for good at 5-3. Brosius would hit .471 in the series but his Game 3 performance helped the Yankees go up 3-0 before sweeping the very next game.

#3: Alex Rodriguez, 2004 ALDS Game 4

This is why I laugh at ideas that A-Rod never performed in the postseason for the Yankees before last year: 2 of the 3 "most clutch" performances in the Derek Jeter era were by the Yankees third baseman. This game also went into extra innings, and again A-Rod proved to be the hero, going 2-for-4 with a .614 WPA. A-Rod walked in the first inning but was left stranded. In the top of the fifth, A-Rod would walk again, but even after stealing second, would be stranded again. The Yankees would tie the game in the 8th inning with A-Rod the only Yankees not to come to the plate, but he led off the top of the 9th with a double against Joe Nathan but once again would be stranded. But after doubling with one one in the top of the 11th, A-Rod would steal third and then score on a wild pitch. That run would prove to be the series-clincher as Mariano Rivera would close it out the next inning. A-Rod's no-RBI performance was the only one in the top 33.

#4: Alex Rodriguez, 2009 ALDS Game 2

The first one on the list I was there for and one hell of a game. A-Rod went 2-for-4 and put up a .592 WPA in a back-and-forth game against the Twins (yeah, them again). A-Rod's HR was the one remembered, but his first hit in the bottom of the 6th really turned the tide. The Yankees were down 1-0 when A-Rod singled to left to tie the game at 1. The Yankees came into the 9th inning down by 2 with Joe Nathan (yes, him again) on the mound looking to close out a big win for the Twins. The Twins had an 90% chance to win when Mark Teixeira led off with a single, decreasing their odds to win to 86%. A-Rod laughed at those odds when he sent a 3-1 pitch into the Yankees bullpen in right-center and the Yankee Stadium crowd went berserk. The Yankees would win the game in the bottom of the 12th on Mark Teixeira's walk-off home-run (#20 on this list), but A-Rod's previous performance was even more clutch.

#5: Jose Vizcaino, 2000 World Series Game 1

The sports-goggle wearing utility infielder was a journeyman throughout his entire career but he will always have a home in the Bronx after this game. Vizcaino batted 9th but went 4-for-6 with a WPA of .587. In the bottom of the 9th inning, Vizcaino singled to left with one out to load the bases. A Chuck Knoblauch sac fly would tie the game and send it into extra innings. That's where Vizcaino would stride to the plate in the bottom of the 12th off of Turk Wendell with two outs and the bases loaded and hit the first pitch for a game-winning single. ESPN New York's Mark Simon recently recounted that Vizcaino's amazing story--and how he got that ball he hit.

#6: Tino Martinez, 2001 World Series Game 4

The Yankees were down 2-1 in the series and 3-1 in the game when Martinez strode to the plate with two outs and a runner on against the Diamondbacks closer, Byung-Hyun Kim. Martinez got hold of the first pitch thrown to him and crushed a game-tying, two-run home run to right-center. Derek Jeter (whose performance was #25 on this list) would end it the next inning with a walk-off home run, but Tino's shot was the reason they were there. Tino had drawn a walk earlier in the game but his only hit of the game would contribute to his .530 WPA. And Scott Brosius who would do the same thing the next day? #24 on the list, right in front of Jeter.

#7: Bernie Williams, 1996 ALCS Game 1

The Yankees faced the division rival Baltimore Orioles in the 1996 ALCS and Bernie Williams' Game 1 set the tone for the series. He went 2-for-4 and had a .505 WPA. Scott Erickson got Bernie out twice to start the game, but Williams would walk in the bottom of the 5th and then double in the bottom of the 7th to chase the Orioles' starter. The Yankees would cut the deficit to one that inning and then would tie it an inning later on the controversial "Jeffrey Maier home run". Williams was intentionally walked in that inning but was left stranded. The game would stay tied until the bottom of the 12th (it's a popular inning it seems) when Williams hit a 1-1 pitch deep into the leftfield seats to win the game. Jeter's game is #13 on this list and probably gets a lot more replays, but Williams was the one with the game-winning shot. 

#8: Luis Sojo, 2000 World Series Game 5

This was the series where utility infielders were the heroes. It only took one plate appearance for Sojo but his 1-1 day and .444 WPA put him on the list because of this memorable clinching game. The game was tied 2-2 in the top of the 9th with Al Leiter pitching a gem. He got the first two outs but then a walk and a single put two on for Luis Sojo who had entered the game because of a double switch the previous inning. Sojo took the first pitch he saw (Leiter's 142nd pitch of the night) and hit what seemed to be a 23-hopper to centerfield to score two huge runs and give the Yankees the lead. Mariano Rivera would enter in the bottom of the inning and, despite a long Mike Piazza fly-ball, seal the Yankees 4th World Series in 5 years.

#9: Ruben Sierra, 2003 World Series Game 4

This was not only just one at-bat, but it was actually in a game that the Yankees didn't win--the only one in the top 28 for the Yankees. The Yankees had runners on first and third with two outs in the top of the 9th against Ugueth Urbina. The Yankees chances to win were about 8% when Ruben Sierra his a 3-2 pitch to rightfield for a bases-clearing, game-tying triple. The Yankees would lose this game in the bottom of the 12th (there it is again) on Alex Gonzalez's solo shot off of Jeff Weaver (sore subject), but the Yankees would have never been in that position had it not been for Sierra's triple and his .403 WPA.

#10: Jason Giambi, 2002 ALDS Game 1

Out of all the games in the top 10, this one was the most surprising to me. I remember Giambi going deep twice in Game 7 against the Red Sox in 2003, but this one escaped my mind (probably because of the result of the series). In this game Giambi went 3-for-4 with a .402 WPA. After singling in his first at-bat, Giambi crushed a two-run home run off of Jarrod Washburn in the bottom of the 4th to give the Yankees the lead. After Giambi grounded into a killer double play on a 3-0 count in the bottom of the 6th, he was looking for some redemption and got it in the bottom of the 8th with a game-tying single. The Yankees would go ahead on the very next batter as Bernie Williams smacked a home-run, but the Giambino got them tied.

Honorable Mentions: 
11) Chuck Knoblauch, Game 3 of the 1999 World Series (.401 WPA, 2-for-4 with a 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 runs, and reached on an error)
12) Ruben Sierra, Game 2 of 1995 ALDS (.396 WPA, 2-for-7 with a 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 1 run, 2 K, and reached on an error)
13) Derek Jeter, Game 1 of 1996 ALCS (.395 WPA, 4-for-5 with a solo HR and 1 SB)
14) Alfonso Soriano, Game 4 of 2001 ALCS (.392 WPA, 1-for-2 with a HR, 2 RBI, 1 run, 1 SB, 1 BB and  1 K)
15) Mariano Duncan, Game 3 of 1996 ALDS (.375 WPA, 2-for-3 with a HBP and an RBI)
16) Johnny Damon, Game 3 of 2007 ALDS (.370 WPA, 3-for-4 with a HR, 4 RBI, 1 run, and 1 K)
17) Chad Curtis, Game 3 of 1999 World Series (.365 WPA, 2-for-4 with 2 HR, 2 RBI, and 2 runs)
18) Aaron Boone, Game 7 of 2003 ALCS (.356 WPA, 1-for-1 with one majestic HR)
19) Tino Martinez, Game 1 of 1998 World Series (.349 WPA, 1-for-3 with a grand slam, 2 runs, 1 BB, and 1 K)
20) Mark Teixeira, Game 2 of 2009 ALDS (.349 WPA, 2-for-5 with a game-winning solo HR and 2 runs)

Top Performances of 2010 (ranks are overall for this era)
30) Lance Berkman, Game 2 of ALDS, .303 WPA
37) Robinson Cano, Game 1 of ALCS, .291 WPA
41) Mark Teixeira, Game 1 of ALDS, .281 WPA
59) Curtis Granderson, Game 1 of ALDS, .230 WPA
73) Robinson Cano, Game 4 of ALCS, .200 WPA
105) Curtis Granderson, Game 5 of ALCS, .161 WPA

Most Un-Clutch Playoff Performances in Wild Card Era*
1) Johnny Damon, Game 2 of 2009 ALDS, -0.354 WPA
2) Aaron Boone, Game 4 of 2003 World Series, -0.333 WPA
3) Nick Johnson, Game 1 of 2003 World Series, -0.331 WPA
4) Mariano Duncan, Game 4 of 1996 World Series, -0.329 WPA
5) Jorge Posada, Game 4 of 2009 ALDS, -0.319 WPA
6) Robinson Cano, Game 2 of 2006 ALDS, -0.316 WPA
7) Nick Swisher, Game 5 of 2009 ALCS, -0.315 WPA
8) Paul O'Neill, Game 1 of 2000 World Series, -0.299 WPA
9) Bernie Williams, Game 4 of 2004 ALCS, -0.297 WPA
10) Alfonso Soriano, Game 1 of 2003 World Series, -0.289 WPA

*Just for comparison's sake, Rodriguez makes his appearance at #38 on this list and has only 3 in the top 100.

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