Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Hot Stove Coal: Soria Would Make Sense...If He's Available

You can't always get what you want. Or so the song goes. The Yankees wanted starting pitching and wanted Cliff Lee. They looked at Zack Greinke. They'll always have an invitation for Andy Pettitte. Now that both of them have gone over to the National League, the free agent and trade market for starting pitchers is looking pretty bleak (at least if you're not a Fausto Carmona fan or a Carlos Zambrano fan as I'm not). The Yankees have money to burn and prospects to trade and, seemingly, nowhere to turn (well, besides Russell Nathan Coltrane Jeanson Martin or extending CC Sabathia). But after trading away Zack Greinke to prepare for the future, it would certainly behoove the Yankees to relook at acquiring Kansas City Royals closer Joakim Soria as a Plan B upgrade to the team.
Soria would look great in Pinstripes (SI)

It's great to want a guy like Felix Hernandez (I mean he is the King), but the reality is that he is (and should be) untouchable. And the Yankees have worked to improve their bullpen signing Pedro Feliciano but Cliff Corcoran of Pinstriped Bible (and others) are right to question how much of an improvement he truly will be. And while a guy like Rafael Soriano would be nice, it seems the Yankees (smartly) don't want to give up a first-round draft pick for him. But while middle relievers are making ridiculous amounts of money (again), the Yankees should look into acquiring Soria, one of the best relievers in baseball--and also someone who is signed to a team-friendly contract. According to Cot's Contracts, Soria will make $4 M in 2011 and has team options of $6 M in 2012, $8 M in 2013, and $8.75 M in 2013 (with a $0.75 M buyout each time and escalators and vesting built in).

This makes him cheap in today's market but the second-most expensive player behind Gil Meche on the Royals roster. And since Meche is untradeable, a team that has conceded they won't be able to compete for a few more years (hence the Greinke deal), Mike Axisa of MLBTradeRumors opined that maybe Soria would be the next out the door. While $4.75 M guaranteed may not be a big burden, a team going no place in 2011 seems to have less need for a ~2 fWAR closer than a team that is trying to win a World Series. That doesn't mean that the Royals will trade him, but they certainly should look into it if it can improve their team when they actually will have a chance to compete.

Now this isn't an unfamiliar target for the Yankees. In July the Yankees reportedly made "a big proposal" for Soria but were shot down. But the Yankees should probably try again. Although the effect of set-up men are quite overrated, Soria has been one of the best (if not the best) reliever over the past 4 seasons. Baseball-Reference lists him as having the highest WAR among relievers while FanGraphs puts him fourth (Mariano Rivera is first). And all this before he turns 27. And with Mariano Rivera signed for two more years, Soria would seem to be a ready-made replacement when Mo decides to finally hang it up*.

*Side Note: there is an option to try to stretch Soria out and use him as a starter (he still throws four pitches) or using him in the bullpen and putting Joba back in the rotation (yeah right), but the Yankees have shown no willingness to truly go through the process of converting relievers to starters so I think that option is out the window. But it's certainly worth considering...

Now what would you give up for Soria? I don't think it's worth trading Montero (who the Royals supposedly asked for in the Greinke talks), but with a very deep list of prospects, the Yankees could put together a pretty enticing package. While prospects are valuable, they are not as valuable to the Yankees who prefer more established players and give very few chances for prospects to stick. Plus, with Many of their top players nearing the end of their useful playing careers, the future is now. Maybe a player like Eduardo Nunez (who the Royals asked for in the Greinke talks but has no spot in the Bronx) and a young pitcher?

This all may be a moot point. The Yankees tried for Soria once with a big package and failed. The Royals are claiming they have no interest in moving Soria, Soria seems like he wants to stay, and Soria does have the Yankees listed on his no-trade list (though this may just mean they have to guarantee his option years for him to approve the deal). But it's worth Cashman's while to look at a deal because while he may not be able to solve the starting pitching issue right now, he can certainly keep up with the Red Sox spending and improve the bullpen with Soria setting up Rivera.

1 comment:

  1. Well it seems that Soria won't block a trade to the Yankees: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/soria-wouldnt-block-trade-to-yankees.html

    ReplyDelete