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| Jeter smiles but the Cold War was predicted back in February (CBC) |
Jorge Posada
What I said worst-case would look like: "Basically 2008 redux. He played in only 51 games, garnering a measly 195 PAs. The Yankees don't need him to get 545 (a number he reached from 2000-2007) but they need him to hit the mid 400s...Jorgie can't get hurt"
What actually happened: Posada played in 120 games and got 451 PAs which was more than he had logged since 2007. The problem was that he hit like 2008 when he played, putting up a .248/.357/.454 line. He also had injury issues like 2008 with a fractured foot in mid-May and a Baker Cyst behind his knee which kept him from crouching. Worse than his offense was his defense which was so bad the Yankees have informed him he is a designated hitter in 2011.
Mark Teixeira
What I said worst-case would look like: "The beginning of [2009]. He can't hit and he's killing the team out there..on May 2nd of [2009], Tex was hitting .182/.354/.338 through 99 PAs"
What actually happened: Well, through 99 PAs in 2010 Tex hit .136/.300/.259 and it took him longer to get out of his slump. He still finished with very good numbers but he didn't come close to hitting his 2009 totals. And an injury during the ALCS ended his playoffs and seemed to deflate the entire Yankees' offense. Teixeira still played great defense and got on base during his slump but it took a while for him to come around while he killed the Yankees from the #3 slot.
Robinson Cano
What I said worst-case would look like: "The first half of 2008 combined with his RISP performance from 2009. Let's hope that Cano doesn't miss his buddy, Melky Cabrera, too much. In the first half of 2008, Robby hit .246/.285/.358...Those struggles combined with the RISP futility of this past season would make for a pretty awful season at the plate. Combine that with his some lazy defense and his general malaise for running the bases and you have a lethal combo."
What actually happened: Let's just say that Cano in no way played into his worst-case scenario. He hit .319/.381/.534 with a .389 wOBA and put up a fWAR of 6.4. He had a hart start and was one of the most valuable players in the Major Leagues in 2010 and with his age and position, making him one of the most important Yankees going forward.
Derek Jeter
What I said worst-case would look like: "A worse version of 2008. I don't think we've truly ever seen BAD Derek Jeter. He's had some times he's struggles and times he's looked awful in the field, but he hasn't looked awful. But as he turns 36 next season, there is the chance that decline could hit. I can imagine a nightmare scenario where he's slipped offensively and defensively to the point the Yankees have no interest in signing him in the off-season leading to a battle colder than the Cold War itself."
What actually happened: Well, um, hmmm...exactly that. Jeter had his worst offensive season and we finally saw BAD Derek Jeter as he struggled both at the bat and in the field. Yankees fans kept on trying to wish Jeter back to 2009 form but it was not to be. It was worse than 2008 and it didn't improve once the leaves turned as they sometimes do with Jeets. That nightmare scenario where the Yankees and him got into an off-season battle over contract that was colder than the Cold War itself? Well hell froze over.
Alex Rodriguez
What I said worst-case would look like: "The worst A-Rod is the one not in the lineup. The Yankees may not be able to get away with A-Rod missing over a month this season like they were in 2009. Unclutch A-Rod making a return wouldn't be as bad as having no A-Rod."
What actually happened: A-Rod got 595 PAs but struggled with the bat putting up his lowest average, OBP and SLG since he became a full-time player in the Major Leagues. He still found his way to contribute, though, hitting 30 HR (again!) and knocking in 125 runs (though those 125 RBIs greatly overstated his value). It wasn't a good season for A-Rod but it was better than having Ramiro Pena out there full-time.
Brett Gardner
What I said worst-case would look like: "Tony Womack II. In 2005, the Yankees decided it would be a good idea to give an everyday spot to a guy who was fast but couldn't get on base to exploit that speed. That's the biggest fear with Gardner. The guy is never going to hit for power but if he can get on base at a decent clip, he can be dangerous for the Yankees. Also, if his defense isn't as good as the small sample size suggests, that really decreases the value of Gardner."
What actually happened: Until a wrist injury slowed him down in the second-half of the season, Gardner was exceeding everyone's expectations of him and even in the end played better than most could have hoped. He got on base, stole bases and played exceptional defense and left. The best part of this scenario is it not only put to bed memories of Johnny Damon, but also allowed the Yankees to use the resources they would have allocated for Carl Crawford to sign Clif....oh wait.
Curtis Granderson
What I said worst-case would look like: "Bernie Williams 2005. Bernie in 2005 had a .231/.305/.286 line vs lefties with 1 HR. The fear for Granderson is that he continues to suck vs. lefties. Former power hitter who can't hit for power anymore. Gets bad jumps on the ball and takes bad routes once he does. Doesn't hit for a great average and doesn't get on base like he used to. Speed doesn't translate to stolen bases. The nightmare of this also is that Austin Jackson has a great rookie year, Ian Kennedy is a stud for Arizona and Phil Coke becomes a dominant Tigers closer"
What actually happened: Well, almost everything on this list and yet it turned out okay for The Grandyman in the end. A late-season adjustment by fixer-extraordinaire, Kevin Long, seemed to get Granderson on track and his late season and playoff success against pitchers from both sides of the plate makes Yankees' fans hopeful that he can duplicate that for all of 2011. For as much went wrong with Granderson, it's amazing that the optimism is still there.
Nick Swisher
What I said worst-case would look like: "His 2008 season. Remember, the Yankees got this guy on a down year and he responded big time last season. What if last season was the blip instead of 2008? That's a scary thought with Nick. His defense could be worse in right"
What actually happened: Swish came into camp slimmer and with a renewed focus to improve his hitting and his fielding and the results were pretty great. Although he became quite a bit more free-swinging and his OBP suffered because of it, he more than made up for it in his career-high average (.288), SLG (.511), and wOBA (.377) leading to a career high in fWAR (4.1). And the dude married a hot girl. The worst thing that happened to Swish all season was a leg injury that slowed him down but even then he still played pretty well through the pain. One "minor" gripe: After his best postseason series as a Yankee in the ALDS (.333/.385/.750) he joined the Yankees hitting futility by batting .091 in the ALCS managing 2 hits to 7 strikeouts.
Nick Johnson
What I said worst-case would look like: "Mark Prior. The man made of glass gets injured and isn't able to play. The Yankees right now are taking a big risk by having no bats on their bench or ready to be called up so if Nick Johnson can't go for a long time..."
What actually happened: It actually may have been worse. Johnson didn't even play in 25 games or log 100 PAs and when he did play he got 12 hits (though he had a .388 OBP). His absense ended up being OK for the Yankees as they used Marcus Thames, Juan Miranda, Jorge Posada, Lance Berkman, A-Rod and a host of other characters in the DH slot but they wouldn't have to acquire Berkman at the trade deadline had Johnson stayed healthy and played well.
That's it for Part I. Overall it was a mixed bag for the starting lineup. But tomorrow we head into the Starting Pitching for Part II. Like a 2010 A.J. Burnett start, that will certainly be an interesting (and sometimes bumpy) ride...
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