Guest Post: Bowling Anyone?

I received this guest post from Alex O yesterday, but unfortunately haven't been able to post until today. I know that some of it has been completed, but plenty is still good and relevant. Here is Alex O with another guest post on the college bowl season:

Yankee Stadium was the snowy site of The Pinstripe Bowl (ESPN)

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How about a little December 30 MMX bowl chatter?

Army vs. SMU just kicked off, being played in Dallas. I always root for the Black Knights having grown up 25 minutes from West Point and going to a bunch of games through the years. There is not many places as great for a College Football game then Michie Stadium on the banks of the Hudson

Army was getting 7 points but is already up 7. I think they get figured out like they did vs. Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium and they end up getting lumped (unfortunately).

Three other games today including Kansas State (-1) vs. Syracuse. I used to work with a guy named Blatchley who went to KState. I am sure he will be watching somewhere today chewing on some beef jerky with a Bud Light in hand. This is of course is the Inaugural Pinstripe Bowl, little nippy to be “chillin” at Yankee Stadium for a Bowl game of slightly above average teams. The oddsmakers think it will be close so could be worth a gander. If gambling were legal I would take the point and go with the Orange. Here is Yahoo’s short preview.

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Guest Post: Storrs, CT is the capital of college sports

In case you haven't noticed, I am the blog's only Connecticut-based writer, so I do my best to represent UConn sports.  And I think I do a pretty good job.  But the Huskies have been winning so much lately, in both men's and women's sports, that the job has become too big for just one blogger to handle.

So I'd like to introduce our newest guest blogger, Michael J. Nichols.  Mike and I have been good friends since meeting at UConn Law School in the fall of 2006.  A native of Cromwell (the literal epicenter of the Nutmeg State) Mike has both a B.A. and a J.D. from the University of Connecticut, where he was the undergraduate Student Body President and a two-term member of the Board of Trustees.  This makes him a very credible authority on all things UConn.  In his spare time, he is a scratch golfer and roots for the Red Sox, the New York football Giants, and the Hartford Whalers.  Today he will discuss how dominant UConn has become throughout the wide realm of college sports:
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According to the most recent AP poll, only 10 schools are ranked in the top 25 for both men’s basketball and women’s basketball – Duke, Ohio State, Connecticut, Syracuse, Georgetown, Kentucky, Texas, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and Michigan State.

Photo Credit: AP

Of those ten, nine have FBS football programs – everyone but Georgetown.

Of those nine, seven are headed to bowl games this year – everyone but Texas and Duke.

Of those seven, only two – Ohio State and Connecticut – are headed to BCS games, while a third, Michigan State, had a season worthy of BCS consideration.

Of those three schools, the average AP ranking of their Big Three sports is as follows: Ohio State: 7th, UConn: 10th, Michigan State: 13th.

(And, if you don’t think women’s basketball is in the Big Three of revenue sports, just wonder aloud the last time you saw a non-championship college hockey, soccer or baseball game televised on ESPN.)

But when you toss in two other prominent sports (the final rankings for men’s soccer and the pre-season baseball rankings) you get the following: UConn: 13th, Ohio State: 28th, Michigan State: 31st.

I might also toss in men’s hockey as well, but all three teams are currently unranked.

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Who Was Better? Mattingly vs Posada vs O'Neill vs Bernie

It's a slow Tuesday so I thought I'd throw this up here. I wanted to start a winter series of "Who Was Better?", a look at a few baseball players and trying to figure out who was better. The first one is Don Mattingly vs. Jorge Posada vs. Paul O'Neill vs. Bernie Williams. All four of these will probably be together in Monument Park someday but it's interesting to debate who was the best out of the 4. Below is their WAR graphs from FanGraphs and I'll talk about each candidacy briefly below. But I'm going to put up a poll on the right side and I would like you to let us know who you voted for and why in the comments below. Let's get started:

Click to expand. Original graph here

So which one was the best? Let's examine:

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Same Old Giants Fall Apart in Green Bay

Walking onto the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field (TM) yesterday afternoon, the Giants had the late-season luxury of controlling their own playoff fate.  Win and they'd be in.  The Packers, meanwhile, really had to sweat.  They had to beat the Giants, beat the Bears next weekend, and still their playoff ticket wouldn't be officially stamped.  So to say this was a must-win game for both teams would be an understatement.  And I couldn't have been more excited.  This is how late December football is supposed to be: two playoff-caliber teams playing a do-or-die game in the freezing cold with the season on the line.

Photo Credit: NY Daily News

Except only one team played like the entire season was at stake.  The Giants apparently never recovered from the hangover they sustained after collapsing at home against the Eagles last week.  Ever since they had that fateful 31-10 lead against Philly with 8:10 to go in the 4th quarter, the Giants have been outscored 73-17.  As painful as that statistic is to read, the actual gameplay has been even harder to watch.  Put simply, the Giants have played some awful football.


Note to Tom Coughlin and the Giants: no more lollygagging!!!


So, where to start?  Let's begin with the Giants' pass defense.  Due to a recent concussion, Aaron Rodgers was something of a question mark heading into the game, but he surgically dissected the Giants' secondary like it was a practice squad.  One thing I could not figure out through the entire game -- and apparently the New York Times also picked up on it -- was why Perry Fewell had the Giants in a Cover 2 scheme against a Packers team that's packed (heh heh) with talented deep-threat wide receivers in Greg Jennings, Jordan Nelson, and Donald Driver.  Play after play, there was Rodgers throwing to a receiver at least 5 yards in front of the closest DB.  You could see that Green Bay made an early (and obvious) adjustment to the Giants' defensive scheme.  In fact, on the first play of the Packers' second possession, Jordy Nelson took a slant 80 yards right up the seam for a TD.  This defensive approach may work next week against Rex Grossman, Chris Cooley & Co., but it was a weakness that the Packers exposed in a big way.  The result was Rodgers passing for 404 yards and 4 TDs.  Ouch.

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Happy Holidays

I wanted to wish all the readers of NYaT a very happy holidays. We had a great year here at the blog and we thank you for reading and following along. Plenty more to come this next week and so much more in the New Year. Hope 2010 has been a good one for you and your family from everyone here at NYaT

-Andrew

You Can Get With This Or You Can Get With That Week 16

Get With Josh Freeman Not With Eli Manning

Say what you will about the Giants epic collapse last week, but it was certainly not Eli's fault. The younger Manning threw 4 TD's and he can't be blamed for the fact that the Giants couldn't get the running game going when they needed it most. This week Eli gets the double whammy of playing the third ranked pass defense in the league in cold wintery Green Bay. With Woodson, the Packerse ball-hawk corner, draped over Hakeem Nicks, Manning will certainly miss Steve Smith and I find it hard to believe the mercurial Manningham will erupt for another 2 TD day. The Giants will look to exploit the Packers much more susceptible run defense as well.

Josh Freeman has a much better opportunity to put up big numbers, and he's shown all season that he can consistently score double digit fantasy points. This week he gets the 29th ranked pass defense in the Seattle Seahawks. Not only that, but this is a home game for the Bucs and nobody travels worse than the Seahawks, especially when they have to come to the east coast. This defense gave up 40 points to the 49ers for crying out loud! Start Freeman with confidence.

Get With Ryan Torain Not With Jonathan Stewart

Since returning from injury, Jonathan Stewart has played very well for a team that should really have no business running the football. However, this week Stewart gets his first real test against the very best run defense in the league with the Pittsburg Steelers. Some people say that this defense isn't the same without Polamalu, but they held a very good Jets running attack to less than 4 yards per carry last week.

Ryan Torain is another back who has played well recently after coming off an injury. The difference is that Torain faces a much more fantasy friendly defense in the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. Just last week the Jaguars made the anemic Donald Brown look like Jim Brown as he rushed for 129 yards on just 14 carries. Torain has gone over a 100 total yards in his two games back and I see no reason why that streak doesn't continue.

-Ben P

-Andrew

Hot Stove Coal: Soria Would Make Sense...If He's Available

You can't always get what you want. Or so the song goes. The Yankees wanted starting pitching and wanted Cliff Lee. They looked at Zack Greinke. They'll always have an invitation for Andy Pettitte. Now that both of them have gone over to the National League, the free agent and trade market for starting pitchers is looking pretty bleak (at least if you're not a Fausto Carmona fan or a Carlos Zambrano fan as I'm not). The Yankees have money to burn and prospects to trade and, seemingly, nowhere to turn (well, besides Russell Nathan Coltrane Jeanson Martin or extending CC Sabathia). But after trading away Zack Greinke to prepare for the future, it would certainly behoove the Yankees to relook at acquiring Kansas City Royals closer Joakim Soria as a Plan B upgrade to the team.

Soria would look great in Pinstripes (SI)

It's great to want a guy like Felix Hernandez (I mean he is the King), but the reality is that he is (and should be) untouchable. And the Yankees have worked to improve their bullpen signing Pedro Feliciano but Cliff Corcoran of Pinstriped Bible (and others) are right to question how much of an improvement he truly will be. And while a guy like Rafael Soriano would be nice, it seems the Yankees (smartly) don't want to give up a first-round draft pick for him. But while middle relievers are making ridiculous amounts of money (again), the Yankees should look into acquiring Soria, one of the best relievers in baseball--and also someone who is signed to a team-friendly contract. According to Cot's Contracts, Soria will make $4 M in 2011 and has team options of $6 M in 2012, $8 M in 2013, and $8.75 M in 2013 (with a $0.75 M buyout each time and escalators and vesting built in).

This makes him cheap in today's market but the second-most expensive player behind Gil Meche on the Royals roster. And since Meche is untradeable, a team that has conceded they won't be able to compete for a few more years (hence the Greinke deal), Mike Axisa of MLBTradeRumors opined that maybe Soria would be the next out the door. While $4.75 M guaranteed may not be a big burden, a team going no place in 2011 seems to have less need for a ~2 fWAR closer than a team that is trying to win a World Series. That doesn't mean that the Royals will trade him, but they certainly should look into it if it can improve their team when they actually will have a chance to compete.

Now this isn't an unfamiliar target for the Yankees. In July the Yankees reportedly made "a big proposal" for Soria but were shot down. But the Yankees should probably try again. Although the effect of set-up men are quite overrated, Soria has been one of the best (if not the best) reliever over the past 4 seasons. Baseball-Reference lists him as having the highest WAR among relievers while FanGraphs puts him fourth (Mariano Rivera is first). And all this before he turns 27. And with Mariano Rivera signed for two more years, Soria would seem to be a ready-made replacement when Mo decides to finally hang it up*.

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A Giant Debacle

I don't even know where to begin with this post.  But in my lifetime as a Giant fan, I have only experienced two losses that even come close to this - the 2003 wild card game against San Francisco and the 2006 loss to the Titans.

As I watched the first half from a Hoboken bar, I figured there was no reason to worry.  The Giants were on their way to wrapping up the division and we had seen Michael Vick limp, if only briefly, at the hand of Justin Tuck.  24-3 was the score at the half.  If the Giant defense played the way they did in the first half, the Giants would breeze through to a long needed victory against the hated Eagles.

The second half began with an Eagles TD, but the Giants responded back, making it a 31-10 game.  With under eight minutes left in the fourth quarter, the Eagles managed 3 TDs, sparked by an unexpected onside kick and by Michael Vick's fantastic running game.  To my amazement, the game was tied.

I already knew that the Giants were in trouble by the time the Eagles had closed it to seven, but the game was now tied and the Giants had just gone three and out on offense.  Matt Dodge, the unpredictable rookie punter, was ordered to put the ball away from kick-returner extraordinaire and showman Desean Jackson, creating as much hangtime as possible and allowing them to take as much time off of the clock as possible to force overtime.  Instead, Dodge punted the ball on a straight line drive to Jackson, who briefly fumbled the ball, but then returned the ball for a TD, stopping to prance around before entering the end zone.

I sat in disbelief at how this could have happened.  Rather than delve into my hatred for the Eagles and their two stars of the game, here is what I think happened (Although I will say that Desean Jackson's antics better stop because it will come back to haunt him at some point.  If only the Giants had realized he was going to prance around the 1 yard line they could have knocked him down, forcing overtime.  Or better yet, the officials should have flagged him for unsportsmanlike conduct before entering the end zone).

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You Can Get With This Or You Can Get With That Week 15

Get with Jason Campbell not with Ben Roethlisberger

Playing Big Ben in Fantasy Week 15 could be ugly (LA TImes)

Ben Roethlisberger is a very good quarterback. The man has two Superbowl rings to prove it. However, since his return from suspension this year, Big Ben has run a little hot and cold (4 very solid games, 4 ok games, and 1 stinker). His last good game was in Week 11 against a then banged up Oakland Secondary (Nnamdi Asomugha did't play). Roesthlisberger's lack of consistency can be tied more to the line's inability to block anyone rather than anything else, but in fantasy the reasons aren't important, the results are. This week the Steelers face an embarrassed and newly desperate Jets team. The Jets have a lot of talent at the cornerback position which allows them to blitz early and often and not have to worry about leaving receivers with one-on-one matchups. This will be a hard fought game, but I doubt it will be a high-scoring one.

The Raiders and Campbell are home this week against a Broncos team which seems to have gone from bad to worse after the firing of their head coach. Let's not forget Campbell posted a respectable 2 TD game earlier this season in Denver, and I can't think of a reason of any kind for a drop off. Certainly not after the Broncos showed they are capable of giving up over 40 points to the inept Cardinals. Campbell on the other had is coming off consecutive good starts.

Get with Tim Hightower not with Rashard Mendenhall

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Guest Post: Four Things We Learned From The Heat’s Win Over the Knicks

As the New York Knicks continue to improve, the more fans want to jump on the bandwagon. But our guest blogger this week has been rooting for the Knicks throughout--through the good times...and the Isiah Thomas times. He was at Madison Square Garden when there was no one there and he's seen the building slowly fill up as the Knicks have gained traction in 2010. He was also there last night to witness LeBron take apart the Knicks defense and he brings us some insight of what we learned last night. Without further ado, let's turn it over to Russell Simon for a guest post on four things we learned last night:
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LeBron was too much for a "mere" 24-point, 14-board Amare (The Record)

1. When Amare Isn’t Playing At An MVP Level, The Knicks Can’t Beat The Best.
Stoudamire has been one of the best players in the league throughout the Knicks 8-game win streak, averaging 26.6 points per game and 9.3 rebounds. He had 39 against the Celtics and almost single-handedly got people talking about the Knicks again. Unfortunately for the Knicks, when STATS not on, the Knicks aren’t either. He had 24 points, but was 11 for 28 shooting, and missed five free throws. It seems like it will take 30 points and 10 rebounds from Amare for the Knicks to win, and for them to go far the have to find ways to win when he has a mere 24 point 14 rebound day.

2. If The Knicks Starters Keep Playing This Much, They Won’t Make It To March Much Less Into The Playoffs
Mike D’Antoni has a problem: Rest Amare, Felton and Gallo and watch the team implode, or play them for a consistent 35 minutes a game. Amare is second in the NBA in minutes played with 37.6 minutes per game. Stoudamire had micro fracture surgery on his left knee in 2005, and like Raymond Felton, is playing more then he ever has in his career. This also shows just how horrible the Knicks bench is as they added only 12 points last night, with 8 coming from Toney Douglas and 4 coming in garbage time. The Knicks have to get their bench more involved, if only to give some of the starters a break, but can’t do that without the risk of falling behind, as they did in the second quarter against the Heat.

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A Look at the Giants: Giants Could Clinch a Playoff Spot This Week

Towards the end of the NFL season I always check out CBS Sportsline's Clinching/Eliminating scenarios for the week. I was shocked today to see the Giants appear on the list as one of the teams that could clinch a spot this week (this was especially true after playing around with ESPN's awesome Playoff Machine and finding out there are scenarios that the Giants could win 11 games and not make the playoffs). So there's a chance the Steve Smith-less Giants we talked about earlier could find their way into the postseason in Week 15. Here's the scenario:

Mario Manningham and the Giants could clinch a spot (MSNBC)

NY Giants clinch a playoff spot:
1) NYG win + CHI loss + GB loss + TB loss + NYG clinch strength of victory tiebreaker over Tampa Bay

Ok, simple enough, right? Well...no.

NOTE: The explanation of the NYG tiebreaker is as follows:
If CHI and GB both lose, then if GB finishes 10-6 they win the North (beat CHI h2h in Wk 17 and would split h2h, finish tied in division and common opponents and would have better conference record because CHI would be losing to MIN this week). So since CHI could not finish ahead of NYG in tiebreaker with a h2h loss and at best 7-5 conference record, that would mean three teams in South would have to beat out Giants -- and if Giants clinch SOV over TB that would be impossible

And...the WORST CASE SCENARIO for NYG is a tie in strength of victory (SOV) tiebreaker with TB.

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A Look at the Giants: Giants Tested By Injuries Headed Into Eagles Matchup

The Giants had Steve Smith back for one catch. That catch ended his season. Before the most important game of the season, the Giants learned they were going to have to go without Steve Smith, their top 3rd down possession receiver for not only the upcoming game against the Eagles, but for the entire year. So the Giants, who have also lost wide receivers Ramses Barden, Victor Cruz, and Domenik Hixon to injured reserve and have Mario Manningham questionable for Sunday with a hip flexor will once again have to dip into the well to find replacements.

Manning will be without Steve Smith the rest of the season (ESPN)

It seems that's when the Giants perform best.

In 2007 the Giants lost Mathias Kiwanuka and Jeremy Shockey during the season and had Justin Tuck and Kevin Boss step up for them. This season they lost fullback Madison Hedgecock and had former tight end Bear Pascoe step into the role and perform brilliantly. They lost Kiwanuka again and Jason Pierre-Paul has emerged. When Smith and Manningham went down for a few weeks Derek Hagan came off his couch to play a huge role. Now they will have to find a way to adjust to the loss of Smith (and Clint Sintim who they also placed on injured reserve).

In 2008 the Giants lost Plaxico Burress and played the Eagles at home right after--but lost and never seemed to recover. The hope is that in 2010 they've learned from that and can find a way to win. The Giants still have two deep-play threats in Hakeem Nicks and Manningham and while winning that battle is what wins games, they will miss Smith as a third-down target. Hagan and Boss will certainly be looked at to help fill that role. You love to see a guy like Manningham playing through the pain and promising his teammates he'll be out there. That's what drives a team.

One huge positive for the Giants is that their patch-work offensive line is starting get healthy with Shaun O'Hara expected back soon. Although the backups played admirably, I think a rested veteran line down the stretch will be huge for the Giants--especially as they've just gotten then run game really going. On Monday night both Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw topped 100 yards for the first time since...2007 (sense the theme?).

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Hot Stove Coal: Reviewing Yankees Worst Case Scenarios from 2010

I figured today was a good day to revisit a depressing topic. Last winter we launched into a series looking at the Yankees worst-case scenarios for the 2010 season. I didn't expect it to be as popular as it was but it was copied on Yankees blogs, national baseball blogs and even Red Sox blogs. Our three-part series went into what it would look like if everything went wrong. Well, despite winning the Wild Card and making the American League Championship Series, some of these worst-case scenarios actually came to fruition. Let's look at each of them again and see how close we go to predicting the worst-case scenario, starting with Part 1, "The Starting Lineup":

Jeter smiles but the Cold War was predicted back in February (CBC)

Jorge Posada 
What I said worst-case would look like: "Basically 2008 redux. He played in only 51 games, garnering a measly 195 PAs. The Yankees don't need him to get 545 (a number he reached from 2000-2007) but they need him to hit the mid 400s...Jorgie can't get hurt"

What actually happened: Posada played in 120 games and got 451 PAs which was more than he had logged since 2007. The problem was that he hit like 2008 when he played, putting up a .248/.357/.454 line. He also had injury issues like 2008 with a fractured foot in mid-May and a Baker Cyst behind his knee which kept him from crouching. Worse than his offense was his defense which was so bad the Yankees have informed him he is a designated hitter in 2011. 

Mark Teixeira 
What I said worst-case would look like: "The beginning of [2009]. He can't hit and he's killing the team out there..on May 2nd of [2009], Tex was hitting .182/.354/.338 through 99 PAs"

What actually happened: Well, through 99 PAs in 2010 Tex hit .136/.300/.259 and it took him longer to get out of his slump. He still finished with very good numbers but he didn't come close to hitting his 2009 totals. And an injury during the ALCS ended his playoffs and seemed to deflate the entire Yankees' offense. Teixeira still played great defense and got on base during his slump but it took a while for him to come around while he killed the Yankees from the #3 slot.

Robinson Cano

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Hot Stove Coal: Yankees Out of Cliff Lee Running; Looks Like Phillies

The last time the Yankees didn't get their man: Greg Maddux in 1992. To tell you how long ago that was, Brett Favre's streak that ended tonight of 297 consecutive starts started way back in 1992. But despite trying to get Cliff Lee at the trade deadline and then offering him a seven-year deal this off-season, Cliff Lee has supposedly decided to spur the Yankees according to many major news outlets (all signs right now point to him going to the Phillies).

It looks like Cliff Lee is heading back to Philly.

According to Buster Olney of ESPN "the Yankees' offer to Cliff Lee was 6 years, $138 million, with a seventh-year player option for an additional $16 million; total $154 M." Lee has supposedly turned that down for a 5-year, $100 M deal with the Phillies who he played for in 2009. In an off-season of Lee or bust, the Yankees have seemed to drawn a blank. Now they must look to their Plan B's as we discussed last week.

While those options aren't great, you wonder if somehow this is somewhat of a blessing in disguise for the Yankees. They never really seemed to want to go to 7 years for Lee and instead of him signing with Texas or the Angels or *gulp* Boston, he is heading to the National League to the Phillies. So if you can't sign him, let's just hope you don't have to face him (and the rest of that ridiculous rotation) until the World Series. The Plan B options may not be great, but the Yankees may be happy about what happened in 5 years. Maybe.

Of course, this is the same Phillies team that traded Lee last off-season thinking they wouldn't be able to sign him to a long-term deal and worried about his injury history. Now he's heading back to team up with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels. I think Sandy Alderson wants a Do Over on taking the Mets GM job.

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Winter TV Review: Dexter Comes to an Unsatisfying Close

It's been a while since we did some real recapping of television here at NYaT, but since the "T" stands for "Television", I felt that last night's finale of Dexter was a good time to get back into the television business. Dexter is one of the more under-appreciated shows out there; a funny and serious show that makes you laugh, cringe, and hide your eyes all in the span of a few minutes. People took the leap to rooting for a drug dealer in shows like Weeds or Breaking Bad but those shows always put the characters actions in the context of "this was for their family". Dexter is a serial killer who kills to satisfy his own dark passenger and fans eat up every minute of it. It was anything but safe and predictable and that's what made it different and exciting. But after a season and season-finale that was less-than-spectacular, I wonder how many of those fans are questioning their devotion to Harry.

The Season 5 Dexter finale wasn't one of the show's best (Showtime)

It may be that expectations of Dexter are so high, but I just felt like Season 5 didn't hold a candle to Season 4. John Lithgow was fantastic (and got Emmy recognition for being fantastic) and so it was going to be hard to match The Trinity Killer. But it wasn't Julia Stiles fault Season 5 didn't match the aura of last season--actually I found her quite good in the role and wished she had stuck around*. And it wasn't Jonny Lee Miller (previously of Hackers and Eli Stone fame) who was convincing as the ultimate bad guy. My issues were the plot holes so large you could drive a surveillance van through them and the way the show just dropped plotlines like they were body parts into the ocean.

*Side Note: The last time that Stiles made a non-Bourne movie that got a "fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes? 2001 with The Business of Strangers. She also starred in O that year which got a "fresh" rating. That's it for her non-Bourne career. Although I liked 10 Things I Hate About You, her career has been choc full of movies like The Omen, The Princess and Me, A Guy Thing, and Down to You (four movies I've never seen and it seems with good reason). Why do I mention this? Because Stiles should have begged the people behind the scene at Dexter to keep her on board. Jimmy Smits resurrected his career and he was less-than-great on the show. Lumen and Dexter for another season would have been awesome.

The early seasons of Dexter were like the character himself: always grasping with whether Dexter is a good person while making sure that everything is cleaned up neatly by the end. As fans, we were given the real dilemma as to whether we could truly root for a character who is a serial killer. We debated with ourselves as Dexter debated with himself how much proof he truly needed before he could kill someone bad and whether he was really doing a service for society or feeding some monster inside of him. Now? It all seems black-and-white. Dexter can kill whoever he wants and we're not supposed to feel conflicted. What, really, did Liddy do to deserve to die by Dexter's hand according to Harry's code? Nothing. Is it OK that he killed him? Sure. But what happened to Dexter grappling with that?

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A Look at the Giants: Why the Metrodome Roof Collapse is Good for Week 14

Usually a huge snowstorm that collapses an entire dome and leaves one team stranded hundreds of miles away isn't a good thing for anyone involved. Questions were asked whether this game would be moved to the University of Minnesota outdoor field (which would have never worked because the Giants didn't bring their cold-weather gear with them and the college field would supposedly take a week to be ready), New Orleans, Indianapolis, or Detroit. But with no one reportedly injured in the Metrodome (or is it Mall of America Field?) roof collapse and the game now reportedly being moved to Monday night at 7:20 PM EST at Detroit's Ford Field (according to ESPN), the Giants look like the big winners in this situation.

Eli Manning and Big Blue have been stuck in KC

Eli Manning never plays well against the Vikings but playing in Minnesota against the Vikings at the Metrodome--one of the best home-field advantage fields in the NFL--would have been a tough match-up for his audible-heavy system. Now Manning and the Giants get to go to a neutral field for an away game which certainly swings the game in their favor. Now, think about all the injured guys around Manning who get one more day of rest: David Diehl, Hakeem Nicks, and Steve Smith. A day and a half more rest can only be good for that trio.

On the Vikings side, this also means that Brett Favre gets a chance to be healthy enough to play. According to Favre, he would not have been able to play had this game been played at 1 PM on Sunday--but thinks he'll be able to go with the extra rest. This keeps his streak alive but it also means that the Vikings will have a QB who won't be 100% healthy. Although the New York Post may be a little over the top saying that "the Giants should be doing somersaults in celebration", I think that Favre on the field swings the advantage back to the Giants. The Vikings have a ton of talent, but the Giants would seem to be better equipped to deal with their offense with Favre slinging the ball under center.

When the Giants may be hurting because of this scheduling change is in Week 15. With the most important game of the season to be played at home against the Eagles next week, the last thing the Giants needed was a short week to prepare for the battle for the NFC East. Now they'll have to worry about the Vikings while simultaneously getting ready to play Michael Vick. But one of the things they won't have to deal with? The Metrodome noise which is certainly going to be a plus for Week 14.

You Can Get With This Or You Can Get With That Week 14

Get with Jon Kitna not with Eli Manning

History says to stay away from Eli Manning vs the Vikings (Newsday)

The Giants are getting healthier on offense, but they’re not all better yet. Diehl is set to come back and Steve Smith will be back in the mix at wide receiver, but the Giants are still missing a couple of O-lineman and their best receiver, Nicks, might play but will most certainly be limited. These injuries, as well as the resurgence of Brandon Jacobs has turned the G-Men into a running team, and I think that will continue in Minnesota this week. Minnesota is a tough place to play and the best way to take the crowd out of the game is to run the ball with success and control the clock. Also, Manning simply does not play well against the Vikings. His career QB rating against them is a measly 48. That’s a tough combination to expect fantasy brilliance from.

John Kitna has turned into a very reliable fantasy QB the past 4 weeks (7 TD’s and 2 INT’s) and the loss of Dez Bryant is getting overblown (4 receptions for 22 yards the past 3 weeks). Kitna still has his favorite target in Jason Witten and enough talent on the outside with Austin and Williams. This week he faces the Eagles who have been mediocre against the pass and their best corner, Asante Samuel, is coming back from injury and might not play. Start Kitna with confidence.

Get with LeGarrette Blount not with Fred Jackson

When the Bills offense was humming, Fred Jackson was their unsung hero, but now with several key injuries to their O-line, the Bills and Jackson did next to nothing against the Vikings last week. A banged up line means less time for Fitzpatrick to throw, which means less of a passing threat, which means less running lanes for Jackson. Throw in the mix that CJ Spiller is starting to get more carries and that they are playing a very physical Browns team, and I’m staying away from Jackson this week.

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Hot Stove Coal: Secondary Pitching Options Not Looking Great for Yanks

After the Red Sox broke the bank (or not) for Carl Crawford yesterday, the Yankees have seemed to step up their effort to sign the top player remaining on the market, Cliff Lee, even getting creative on contract details. While I think 7 years for a 32-year-old pitcher is pretty insane, with the Red Sox strikes leaving five lefties in the starting lineup, Lee seems like an even better option than he did a day ago. But what happens if everyone's forgone conclusion is wrong and Lee signs with the Rangers or the Angels or the Nationals or some other team? Well Yankees fans, the secondary options either aren't all that great or aren't all that available. Let's look at these outside "options" (I'm excluding guys in the minors, Ivan Nova, projects like Mark Prior, or a guy like Joba Chamberlain for now).

If Lee disappears, Yankees' options are pretty bleak (Globe & Mail)

To break down possible targets, I used Baseball-Reference's Play Index and looked for any starter who had one season of at least 3 wins (B-R WAR of 3+) in the past three years. Although this is far from a perfect metric, I figured that any starter they acquire probably will need to fit this criteria to be a viable option in the power-hitting American League East. Here's a few candidates:

Zack Greinke: He's probably not a good fit for New York with anxiety issues, but if the Yankees can get some reassurance he'd be okay in New York, I think he's firmly their "Plan B" (as has been rumored). With guys like Jeff Weaver bombing out in New York, I don't know if the Yankees would go this route again, though. I like Greinke a lot: only 27, has been excellent the past three years (though fell of just a bit last year), signed for two more years at a reasonable $13.5 M a season, and seems to want to go to a place he has a chance to win. With chips like Jesus Montero, Brett Gardner, Joba Chamberlain, and young pitchers to play with and a need to rebuild for the Royals, this could be a good match-up player-wise. I just worry about Greinke in the Bronx since "personality" and "adaptability to a big market" are not measurable stats.

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Guest Post: Revival of the Knicks

Wait, there's still a basketball team in New York? It's no "Second Coming Sale", but what's been going on with the New York Knicks has been very much of a revival of a team that has been dead for quite a while now. The Knicks are a legit playoff team, they have one of the best rookies in the NBA, and led by Amare Stoudmire--who just recorded his 5th straight 30-point game in a win over Minnesota (maybe the Judaism is helping?)--the MSG basketball team has shot up the standings to the point they are one game behind Miami. As ESPN's Chris Sheridan wrote in a chat this past week, the Knicks schedule will determine if they're for real, but they've been fun to watch and "you couldn't use "fun to watch" and "Knicks" in the same sentence for the past 10 years." But once again I will turn the analysis over to Alex O, our resident Knicks expert, to give us some more details on the high-flying Knickerbockers.
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Amare has led the Knicks back into respectability (NYT)

“Is me being a Knicks fan my punishment for being a Yankees fan?”

This was a tagline to a comment yesterday on the Knicks blog “Posting and Toasting” by Benny Blanco from the Brix

Many Knicks/Yankees fans may ask themselves the same thing. We can’t have it all. Steelers/Pirates fans have a similar dichotomy as did Sawx/Celts fans for many years. This may be changing as the Knicks have won 10 of 11 games for the first time since the 2000-2001 season. Starting five then was : Camby, LJ, Spree, Houston, and Mark Jackson.

Reality check….. as Mitch Lawrence points out in the Daily News how the Knicks have been feasting on a “cupcake schedule”. Of the 10 wins only 2 were against winning teams, Golden State, and New Orleans who started hot but has been terrible of late. Next they play Toronto, and the Wizards followed by Nugs, Celts, Miami (2x), Okie City, Bulls, and Magic. As my 8th grade Science teacher Mr. Bowles would say “this will provide a good litmus test”.

It is a good time to evaluate the team since we are ¼ of the way through this long season. The Knicks schedule has been the easiest in the league if you look at opposing teams win %, but they have played a lot of games on the road, and have had 7 back-to-back games. Their success on the road and in back to backs has been a key to their 13-9 record, good enough for sixth position in the East.

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One (Not-So-Clear) Winner In The Derek Jeter Negotiations

A few weeks back I asked NYaT's readers and Twitter followers to guess what Derek Jeter's next contract would be. The guesses were all pretty good and I thank everyone again for participating. But now that Derek Jeter has officially inked his new contract, we need a winner. Like the actual negotiations between Jeter and the Yankees, this was not as easy as I thought. I was OK with the Yankees and Jeter working out the contract, but I was interested to see who would win our last book .But before we get to a winner, let's talk a little about the end of these negotiations.

Jeter and the Yankees' brass heading to the presser (NYT)

All it took to finalize these dealings, it seems, was for the Yankees to meet face-to-face with Jeter and hammer out what SI's Jon Heyman correctly calls "a creative and complex deal." Jack Curry via Twitter seemed to be the one to break the contract details out first and it includes a bit of everything: a large amount of guaranteed money, deferred money, an option with a buyout, and incentive clauses. Despite the fact that most announcements during the Winter Meetings are actually made where the Winter Meetings occur, the New York Post's Joel Sherman says that Jeter made the Yankees go to Tampa for the announcement, certainly the first sign that something wasn't quite right in Jeter's head.

In the end, the discussion is over and Derek Jeter is a Yankee though it didn't take long for people to start pushing loads of blame on the Yankees or on Jeter--and, honestly, both are loads of crap. This is a business negotiation not a Disney movie and, honestly, if George Steinbrenner was alive, there's no guarantee this wouldn't have gone worse for Jeter and the Yankees considering the path of his first negotiations. I don't think anyone "won" here but I think in the end, that's the sign of a fair negotiation. The Yankees got their man and Jeter got paid.

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A Look at the Giants: Black and (Big) Blue

8-4. That's a pretty good place for this Giants team to be considering they started 1-2, have suffered through a ridiculous amount of injuries on the offensive end, and looked to be dead at halftime of the Jaguars game two weeks ago. Now, with a game coming up against the Vikings this week followed by a home game against the Eagles next week, the Giants have to be eying a division win. But while it's fun to look ahead, let's take a look back at this big Giants drubbing of the Redskins.

Brandon Jacobs had the Giants off to the races Sunday (NYT)

It's a bad idea to judge a team right after playing the Washington Redskins, but with all the Giants injuries, it was impressive to see how they methodically worked their gameplan on offense. Brandon Jacobs got 8 touches for 103 yards and two TDs (I don't have a problem resting him at the end of the game...Jacobs' biggest issue is he gets run down from so much physical running) and Bradshaw carried 25 times for 97 yards and a pair of TDs (getting him to 1,000 yards on the season). The most important part for me about the early run success is it allowed the Giants to start fast for the first time all season.

Derek Hagan has filled in fantastically at wide receiver catching eight tough passes on Sunday for 65 yards. Rich Seubert has adjusted to playing center so well that not only is he not a liability, but if you look at most of those Giants runs, Kevin Gilbride was running his backs right up the middle with Seubert--and the guards Chris Snee and Kevin Boothe--leading the way. Bear Pascoe has been awesome as well, having to fill in at fullback and not only throwing "some hellacious blocks", but proving to be a viable passing option as well coming out of the backfield (and with Kevin Boss and Travis Beckham gives the Giants three legit passing TEs). And on special teams Danny/D.J. Ware gave them a legit kickoff return man (can we just cut Darius Reynaud at this point?) while former Redskin Devin Thomas had a superb game on special teams with the triumvirate of a big tackle, punt downed inside the 5 and a blocked punt.

But while the offense was impressive, let's not forget what the defense did: 6 turnovers--and it could have been two more if Deon Grant had held on to an easy interception or pounced on a fumble he had his hands on. When Mathias Kiwanuka went down with a season-ending neck injury, the Giants looked to be in trouble but Jason Pierre-Paul (like Justin Tuck when Kiwi went down in 2007) has stepped up big time. Two more sacks for Pierre-Paul after two last week to go along with a forced fumble, a defended pass and a fumble recovery. He seems to be motivated by teammates and coaches challenging him. And the man plays special teams with speed that is usually reserved for guys half his size.

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You Can Get With This Or You Can Get With That Week 13

Get with Sam Bradford not With Matt Ryan

The Atlanta Falcons are a perfect 6 and 0 at home. Unfortunately this week they are away, playing in Tampa, their division rival. When Tampa came to Atlanta earlier this year, Ryan was efficient as he threw for 235 yards and 1 TD, solid numbers but not spectacular. I think those numbers take a dip now that the Falcons are away. The Bucs are good against the pass and I think Ryan is going to have to take more chances with the football to try and beat the upstart Bucs.

Sam Bradford is having a spectacular rookie season and I think that continues this week against the Cardinals. In Bradford’s first game as a pro he played Arizona and was able to compile 250 yards and 1 TD, but he also threw 3 picks. Bradford has grown up a lot since then. Even though he doesn’t have a lot to throw to, I like his chances against the league’s 25th ranked pass defense. The wiser Bradford isn’t as careless with the ball this week as his strong season continues.

Get with Ahmad Bradshaw not with Rashard Mendenhall

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2010 Non-Tender List Presents Interesting Options

Last night marked the deadline for teams to tender contracts to players who had still not yet accumulated six full years of Major League service.  This includes players who have accumulated three full years and are now arbitration eligible.  For such players, when a team tenders them a contract, that team runs the risk of going to salary arbitration and possibly paying a hefty price.  Many teams try to negotiate a contract with a player prior to the deadline or trade that player to another team, in which case the responsibility of tendering a contract falls on that team.  When the aforementioned transactions cannot be accomplished, many teams choose to non-tender such players for with whom they do not wish to risk going to arbitration with.  Bare in mind that a team can still resign a player who has been non-tendered, but that player is now free to negotiate with any team that he wishes.

Here the official non-tender list for 2010, courtesy of MLB.com:

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Baltimore: Matt Albers, RHP
Boston: Taylor Buchholz, RHP; Andrew Miller, LHP; Hideki Okajima, LHP
New York Yankees: Alfredo Aceves, RHP; Dustin Moseley, RHP
Tampa Bay: Willy Aybar, IF/DH; Lance Cormier, RHP; J.P. Howell, LHP; Dioner Navarro, C
Toronto: Jeremy Accardo, RHP; Fred Lewis, OF
White Sox: Bobby Jenks, RHP; Erick Threets, LHP
Cleveland: None.
Detroit: Zach Miner, RHP
Kansas City: Josh Fields, IF
Minnesota: None.
Angels: Kevin Frandsen, IF
Oakland: Travis Buck, OF; Jack Cust, DH/OF; Edwin Encarnacion, IF;
Seattle: Ryan Rowland-Smith, LHP
Texas: Dustin Nippert, RHP

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta: Matt Diaz, OF
Florida: Ronny Paulino, C; Jose Veras, RHP
Mets: Chris Carter, OF; Sean Green, RHP; John Maine, RHP
Washington: Wil Nieves, C; Joel Peralta, RHP; Chien-Ming Wang, RHP
Philadelphia: None.
Cubs: None.
Cincinnati: None.
Houston: Sammy Gervacio, RHP
Milwaukee: Todd Coffey, RHP; Joe Inglett, IF/OF
Pittsburgh: Brian Burres, LHP; Argenis Diaz, IF; Lastings Milledge, OF; Donnie Veal, LHP
St. Louis: None.
Arizona: Blaine Boyer, RHP; D.J. Carrasco, RHP; Ryan Church, OF; Augie Ojeda, IF
Colorado: Manny Delcarmen, RHP
Dodgers: Russell Martin, C; Trent Oeltjen, OF; George Sherrill, LHP
San Diego: Matt Antonelli, IF; Tony Gwynn Jr., OF; Scott Hairston, OF; Luis Perdomo, RHP
San Francisco: Chris Ray, RHP; Eugenio Velez, IF

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Hot Stove Coal: Jeter and the Yankees are Taking a While...But That's OK

One of my favorite shows on television is The Office but there are episodes where Michael Scott's interactions with others get so painful to watch that you almost want to turn the channel. The Derek Jeter negotiations are on the verge of that--but aren't there yet. Like Dunder Mifflin and Michael Scott, you feel like the current version of the Yankees and Derek Jeter will always be together, when, in fact, both of those pairings will separate at some point in the not-so-distant future. But in the meantime, Jeter and the Yankees have waged a very public, sometimes uncomfortably messy negotiations for Derek Jeter's last contract. In the end, though, I think that will be okay for both the Yankees and Jeter.

Derek Jeter and the Yankees need each other (MSNBC)

Let's test your Yankees free agent memory: Do you recall the Yankees telling Bernie Williams to hit the road? Do you remember when the Yankees refused to give Andy Pettitte a large guaranteed deal and instead made him play for an average salary with incentives? How about when Jorge Posada and the Yankees had very public negotiations with Jorge threatening to bolt for Flushing? Maybe you'll recall letting World Series "heroes" Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon walk? All of these happened in the past 5 years and yet the Derek Jeter negotiations are seen by some in the media and Yankee fandom as "unprecedented", when, in fact, the Yankees have already had these types of public negotiations with Derek Jeter, himself, in the past (sometimes those were pretty messy, too).

The Yankees used to operate differently. With George Steinbrenner in charge the Yankees doled out multi-year contracts like they were Halloween candy, never worrying about the consequences or a budget. But after getting bogged down with the Carl Pavanos and Jaret Wrights and, now, A.J. Burnetts of the baseball world, the Yankees are trying not to make the same mistake again. The Yankees' "core" is getting to the point where most teams would send them out to pasture with a shotgun in the pickup but Pettitte, Jeter, Rivera and even Posada can all serve a purpose to a Yankees team trying to win in 2011. They all have meant a lot to the Yankees teams of the past and have been well-compensated for that, but can still contribute to a winning team in '11.

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