| Name | Years | Dollar | Average | |
| @JayHyne | 4 | $48 | $12.0 | |
| @Laurenmass | 4 | $60 | $15.0 | |
| Alex O | 4 | $60 | $15.0 | |
| @Scroiata | 5 | $75 | $15.0 | |
| @NYsportSpace | 4 | $65 | $16.3 | |
| @danreilly11 | 4 | $65 | $16.3 | |
| @hbk2369 | 4 | $65 | $16.3 | |
| Richie K | 4 | $66 | $16.5 | |
| @eric_weinberg | 4 | $70 | $17.5 | |
| @JobaRules26 | 5 | $90 | $17.9 | |
| @NYYEric | 3 | $54 | $18.0 | |
| @AndyNY2 | 4 | $76 | $19.0 | |
| @pjmclaugh | 4 | $84 | $21.0 | |
| @theharryadams | 3 | $65 | $21.7 | |
| @treyalex09 | 3 | $65 | $21.7 | |
| Average | 4 | $67 | $17.3 |
We excluded @jaydestro prediction of eleventy billion dollars for umpteenth years (∞) since it would have skewed our results too much. For the record, my prediction is 4 years, $65 million as well so I fit right into the mode. Our average of 4 years, $67 million is not so far off, though and certainly seems like it could be the final result.
That pales into comparison with most unreasonable Yankees fans. We all know that Jeter will be overpaid, but sometimes you just need to pony up for certain guys. Freakonomics Stephen J. Dubner tries to figure out what Derek Jeter's actually worth.
One of the more interesting things is that the Yankees have already gone through this with Jeter. They nickled a dimed Jeter and Rivera before they were arbitration eligible and even when they became arbitration eligible and Jeter professed wanting to be a Yankee for the rest of his career (in January of 2000), George Steinbrenner still wanted to play hardball with his negotiations. In the end, Jeter only signed a $1 million deal because Steinbrenner refused to pony up a record contract. In the end, the delay to resign Jeter was costly.
In the end, the Yankees got close with Jeter (though took a while longer with Rivera) and eventually signed him to the pact that ended a few weeks back. The interesting thing is that the Yankees are in the opposite position this time around. If they would have signed him after, let's say, last season, they would have ponied up a lot more money than they will have to this winter. I still think Jeter gets his due (and Rivera as well).
It will be interesting to look back here in a few weeks when Jeter finally inks his pact with the Yankees and see who was closest. In the meantime Peter, make sure to get in contact with me so we can send you your book. And if anyone else wants to add a guess to this list, put it in the comments below.
Posts
There has been a lot said about the Jeter contract situation in the last few weeks. Neither side has made a strong move yet. I think the Yankees will eventually flinch first because although Jeter and the Yankees need each other, the Yankees need him more. In terms of the team's legacy, image, and even dollars and cents (driven by increased TV and ticket revenue during his imminent chase for 3000 hits) the Yankees cannot afford to even consider a future without their captain in pinstripes. Besides, Yankees fans, fans of baseball, and even MLB need Jeter to stay in NY because he is the face of the team and arguably baseball itself. Continuity in this situation is paramount.
ReplyDeleteSo in light of the tremendous amount that I've read and researched over the past 2+ weeks since I made my original prediction on November 2, I'd like to *unofficially* amend it. In fact, I'm going far above the NYaT average. I think Jeter is going to get 5 years and $90 million. ($18 mil average annual value)
Is he worth that much on the field? Heck no. But his value to the team is so very much greater than his statistical production. And as countless commentators have noted, it's hard to even quantify how much Jeter means to this club. The Yankees will reflect his significance by refusing, in the face of irrefutable business logic, to nickel and dime the most valuable since Mantle. As Teddy KGB would say, "Pay him. Pay that man his money."
I would disagree with one part (and it's a minor disagreement since they need each other), but I truly believe that Jeter needs the Yankees more than they need him. These Yankees sell a lot of seats (is attendance really going to go up that much during his 3000 chase?) and memorabilia already. The Yankees have turned the page on legends before but where is Derek Jeter going to go play? Baltimore? And give up the captaincy and tarnish his legacy?
ReplyDeleteThe Yankees supposedly offered Jeter three years and close to his $18 M salary average. I think that's more than fair. And if he turns it down to sign for more elsewhere after making $200 M in his career, he'll be seen as greedy. They need to come together and figure out a deal and I think it'll look sometime like 4 years and maybe in the $75 M range. We shall see...
This disagreement of ours is really minor, since they obviously need each other, but this is a sports blog so why not keep the comments going...
ReplyDeleteThe Yankees sell a lot of seats, but they don't sell every seat. They seldom run off streaks of sellouts like some teams do (ahem, Boston). But when Jeter gets close to 3000 hits -- one of the few signature MLB milestones that a Yankee has never accomplished, especially a career Yankee -- I think you'll see every single seat taken. Even the $1500+ seats. For an extended stretch of games. Good stuff.
And while the Yankees do sell a ton of memorabilia, far more than any other team, the demand for Jeter products around his 3000 hit campaign (not to mention his impending retirement, whenever that occurs) is going to be higher than for any other Yankee player or event in the last 40 years. Thurman? Reggie? Donnie Baseball? Their fanfare will pale in comparison to what Jeter will generate. Just think of those millions of dads who will take their millions of sons and daughters "to see Jeter play one last time" or buy a Jeter t-shirt "while they're still around."
Anyway, here's my last point. It will be very difficult for Jeter to look greedy here. There is a rebuttable presumption that Jeter cares more about winning and being a Yankee than the bottom-line dollars and cents. Meanwhile, we are talking about the YANKEES here. There is a rebuttable presumption that they are a ruthless machine that will not hesitate to turn the page on legendary players if business or baseball logic says it's time to move on. They don't typically spend money to preserve an image or a legacy or whatever.
So if Jeter walks away from a 3-year, $54 million offer, the fans and the media will not call Jeter greedy. They'll call the Yankees cheap for not giving him the money he deserves.
A) I do not think the Yankees care what anyone says about them...... nor should they.
ReplyDeleteB) I think it was Hal who said this is a business decision. Whether or not it is implied or explicit remains to be seen but I think any deal will involve much talk of keeping Jeter in the organization for a long time. I think that is his ultimate value going forward.
C) The Yankees will fold and give a generous deal. I think a part of this is that their is not an attractive alternative right now. There is no great shortstop free agent ready to be plugged in.
D) I am not ready to bury Jeter as a player. No debate, his #'s were poor this year, BUT his numbers in 2009 were very good. It is possible he can produce with similar results. Is it probable? We will see.
E) Let's not discount how much a factor it is in these negotiations and others that the Steinbrenners are not paying a few hundred million in estate taxes because George died this year. There were rumors that they were going to sell a piece of their pie to Goldman Sachs so they could pay the estate taxes when the time came. I will give credit to Doug Kass to that speculation.
F) Let's see if the Yankees have learned from the crazy deal they gave A-Rod.
There are a few things that have yet to be brought up:
ReplyDelete1-Will this be his last contract? If so, will they be negotiating any sort of personal services contract?
2-Will any of his contract contain deferred money?
Great point on George's death being in year with no estate tax. I'm pretty sure this year will set the record for old people with lots of money dying. Someone needs to make a chart of this.
ReplyDeleteI don't know why the Yankees would try to defer any of Jeter's money. It's not like they have current cash flow problems. While A-Rod's contract goes down over time, Granderson, Cano and Swisher's all increase.
ReplyDeleteAnd this will be Jeter's last contract, in my opinion.
Has there even been a whisper about another team talking to Jeter's agent? He can sign with anyone right now, correct?
ReplyDeleteThis in from ESPN.com:
ReplyDeletehttp://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=5843151&campaign=rss&source=ESPNHeadlines
Cashman seems fairly confident that no one else will give him more than what the Yankees have offered.
And who would offer him more? A team would have to be nuts to try to top that offer.
ReplyDeleteOn a multi-year basis, no one will offer more but for a single year someone might give him a good deal (how much do you think a team like the Sox or Mets would love to see Jeter get his 3,000 hit outside of a Yankee uniform).
ReplyDeleteWhat I don't get is the cavalier approach Cashman is taking. I understand not wanting to overpay him but it's as if they are also trying to make him look bad. Now, if Jeter signs for the current deal on the table, Jeter certainly would look like he is taking a hit.
Personally, I'm quite upset that the Yankees have taken such a public approach to this negotiation. It should have been taken care of quietly and privately. And I understand Cashman doesn't like to overpay his aging veterans (ex. Bernie Williams, Posada, etc) but this is Derek Jeter, Mr. Yankee, The Yankee Captain, and quite possibly the most beloved New York athlete of the past twenty years. There would be no new Yankee Stadium without him, nor would there be the enterprise that is the New York Yankees.
I can assure you this, if Jeter isn't in Yankee pinstripes next year, there will be a whole lot fewer fans in Yankee Stadium, I for one being one of them.
And again, I'm not saying that 15 million dollars is absurd for how he performed last year. But he's "freakin'" Derek Jeter. Just pay the guy.
A team is really going to give Jeter more than $15 M a year to say fuck you to the Yankees? I doubt it.
ReplyDeleteThe Yankees and New Yankee Stadium wouldn't exist without Derek Jeter? That's also a bit much. And the Yankees did let an aging star named Babe Ruth leave even though he had supposedly built them a stadium.
And I'm calling your bluff, Ben. You'll be in Yankee Stadium next year whether the Yankees sign Derek Jeter or not. I just don't believe you won't show up because poor Derek Jeter (a guy who has earned over $200 M in his career) turned down $45 M from the Yankees. Boo fucking hoo.
Andrew, I must admit I'm surprised by what seems like a willingness to see Jeter leave. Either that or you think that this is all just a bunch of nonsense and in the end he will definitely re-sign.
ReplyDeleteHowever, Hank Steinbrenner seemed to echo some of Cashman's comments from yesterday. http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/11/23/hank-weve-already-made-these-guys-very-very-rich/. Yes Hank, you have made them very rich, but they have made you far richer.
Yes, I think a team would pay Jeter more than 15 million a year for a one year contract, but in reality it's a moot point because Jeter probably wants a multi-year deal.
And by all means, please do call my bluff.
I think it's all nonsense. Where the heck is Jeter going? Japan? The Independent Leagues? And if Jeter is offered $15 M for THREE years and he is "offended" by this offer why the heck would he sign a one year deal for $15 M? The Yankees have all the leverage here.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure Jeter is insulted because the Yankees gave A-Rod what he wanted but they hardballed Andy Pettitte, sent Matsui out the door, let Bernie walk, and told Johnny Damon to leave if he didn't like their offer. This is a business, like it or not and the Yankees aren't just going to throw 5 years, $100 M at Derek Jeter because he's Derek Jeter.
So tell me straight up...would you be ok if Jeter walked?
ReplyDeleteAnd by blow him away, I mean a team offers him 20 million for one year.
If Jeter is that greedy that he decides to walk, it's fine with me. His range is awful and he's a declining player, so if he really wants to go elsewhere, I'm sure the Yankees can put that money to good use. I'm all for sentimentality and I say go up to $18 M a year if you need to, but this is getting ridiculous here. This is not Michael Jordan or Wayne Gretzky here. I love Jeter and I appreciate everything he's done, but the Yankees paid him very, very well for doing all of that.
ReplyDeleteBut the last time I checked, $20 M is less than $45 M. And, please, tell me the team that is going to give Derek Jeter $20 M for one season?
he is staying. if he walks it won't be cause of money, it will be because he is pissed about the yankees offer and cashman's comments. but he has proven he isn't stupid. his best chance at LIFELONG earnings is to stay in the yankee family, not make himself an outcast and go suck it up for some other team at a dollar amount they can barely afford.
ReplyDeleteThank you, Ari. If Jeter really wants to make money in the long term, he stays. The Yankees brand will continue to sell if the team is winning but Derek Jeter's long-term marketability will take a hit if he goes to the Tigers or Mets or whoever you imagine will be giving him a contract.
ReplyDeleteAnd that's not to say that the Yankees won't increase this offer. I'm sure they'll go to 4 years and/or increase the AAV if needed, but it makes no sense to give Derek Jeter a 5 or 6 year deal because of what he did for the past decade.
Two interesting things to read:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/11/24/its-time-people-got-real-about-what-derek-jeter-means-to-the-yankee-brand/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40355050?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS