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| Brett Gardner's defense was huge for the Yankees in 2010 (Star-Ledger) |
It's funny to look back at the uproar that was caused by the Yankees not signing Holliday or Bay, trading away Melky Cabrera, and handing the leftfield job to Brett Gardner. Even the prognosticators saw Gardy as only slightly improved on his 2009 self. Gardner responded by hitting .277/.383/.379 with a .358 wOBA and 47 SB. Almost as impressively, Gardner's defense was among the best in the game. He won the Fielding Bible Award in a 10-point upset over 3-time winner Carl Crawford. Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues followed that up by writing: "it didn’t factor into voting, but Gardner did finish with the highest UZR (+22.3) and UZR/150 (+39.7) in baseball this season, regardless of position." He also set the record for most pitches per plate appearance (since the stat has been tracked). All this added up to 52.1 runs above replacement which was roughly 5.4 wins, good for 9th among American League position players according to FanGraphs, ahead of such guys as Joe Mauer, Ichiro, Victor Martinez, and any Yankee besides Robinson Cano (which means he also produced the greatest value relative to his salary). Baseball-Reference was slightly less kind, putting Gardner at 4.0 WAR, though his defensive WAR was 7th in the American League among position players putting him into the upper echelon.
The problem with Gardner is that he needs to duplicate that success of getting on base to be successful. Gardner was on a tear early in the season, hitting .321/.403/.418 through the end of June. That also coincided with the time that Clayton Kershaw nailed Garnder with a 91 MPH fastball on the right wrist. Although X-rays came back negative and Gardner said he felt better, his results after that told a different story. Gardy hit .232/.363/.340 the rest of the season and really seemed to struggle to drive the ball. In mid-September an MRI showed considerable inflammation in that wrist and he received a cortisone shot. Although he hit a little better the rest of the regular season, his bat was dead in the playoffs as he hit .185/.285/.185 in the postseason with no extra-base hits, 2 SB, 8 K and 3 BB. Although he still saw a lot of pitches, he looked like he was unwilling to swing the bat until absolutely necessary, making some wonder if his wrist was not bothering him some more. And it sure didn't help that C.J. Wilson supposedly stepped on Gardner's left hand when he slid into first on that fateful play in Game 1 of the ALCS.
I asked Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory about early projections for Gardner and he responded via Twitter that we were looking at .267/.357/.372 (96 OPS+). If those are Gardner's actual numbers for next year, it may be hard to justify eschewing a Werth or a Crawford for him. Now some of the negative projections could be due to his injured play being factored into what they think he will do in 2011, but a down OBP next season could really kill his offensive value. His inability or lack of inclination to bunt for base hits truly cuts down on his value when he puts the ball in play because of his utter lack of power. But Gardner's ability to avoid the Ks and show good strike-zone judgement was one of his better (and more surprising qualities). Still, while Brett Gardner's 2010 looked a lot like Nyjer Morgan's 2009, it has to scare the Yankees looking at what Nyjer Morgan did in 2010 (even before the breakdown).
So should the Yankees look to trade Gardner? It really depends how other teams value him and how the Yankees value him. If they think this is as good as it gets with Gardner, then they should trade him and go for Crawford who has shown a greater consistency to do what Gardner does and with more power. There are plenty of teams in baseball who could use a young, controllable, cheap lead-off hitter who can play any OF position and give them Gold Glove-caliber work. What teams would give up for this type of player is another debate entirely. I doubt any team would give up Gardner straight up for a pitcher, but a deal with one of their catching prospects and a few other chips may get a deal done.
My opinion? I don't think it's worth it to trade Gardner. On a team of old and slowing guys (remember, A-Rod and Jeter aren't going to be stealing that many bases on this side of 30), Gardner is relatively young (will be 27 next season) and cheap. If you trade Gardner and sign Crawford, you're locking yourself into a large commitment for a player who may be only marginally better in the long run. And if you sign Werth, either he or Swisher would have to play leftfield in Yankee Stadium which is not an easy task and would not be as pretty defensively. And, while Juan Pierre was once trade for three pitchers (including Ricky Nolasco), the Yankees dumped their top prospects for Chuck Knoblauch, and Kenny Lofton was once traded for a top catching prospect (Max Ramirez), gone are those days where teams traded top pitching prospects for no-power lead-off hitters. In a post debating whether to trade Granderson or Gardner (if you needed to make one of the two available), Steve H of River Ave Blues concludes "maybe the Yankees are 100% sold on Gardner and like his cheap production, but if these guys come up in trade talks during the offseason, I’d much rather Gardner be the one packing his bags."
In the end, unless Brian Cashman gets blown away with an offer for Gardner or Werth and Crawford become very cheap, I think they're best off sticking with Brett Gardner in left (or center). The Yankees Game 1 win in the ALCS was fueled by Gardner's speed (and slide) and that speed and defensive ability cannot be overlooked. I think this is an area the Yankees can leave alone for 2011. The rest of the outfield? Well that's for another post...
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The Yankees have an age problem. They look old, they play old, and they are getting even older. So let's not forget how important the age factor is here.
ReplyDeleteGardner is 27 with 300 career MLB games.
Werth is 31 with 775 career MLB games.
Crawford is 29 with 1235 career MLB games.
Gardner is the youngest player with by far the fewest miles on his odometer. The aging Yankees need his fresh legs, his aggressiveness on the bases and in the OF, and his energy in the clubhouse. He's also cheap and doesn't come with a long term commitment. I don't see how you can trade him for an "upgrade" that isn't even a guaranteed improvement.
Also, I think we tend to get too wrapped up in stats. (Yes, Andrew, even you!) Let's look at the players. Gardner is a good team guy. He seems to have the respect of his teammates and his coaches. He never says anything bad to the media. Scandal free. Appears comfortable playing in NY.
Werth is more of a country boy. Lots of people have speculated that he wouldn't be happy in NY. Seems quiet and introverted, at times hiding behind his very un-Yankeelike beard. Probably not comfortable being a high-priced free agent import, and will probably struggle with the increased expectations.
Crawford is a different story. I have always heard that he's kind of a dick. A selfish, me-first, stats-driven kind of guy. A possible clubhouse problem. He's extremely talented and you can't deny that he's a legit superstar. But...I see him as a Gary Sheffield type of acquisition. He might come to NY and put up monster numbers but he won't fit in and may rile up teammates. He's also a huge media liability. (Can you imagine what would've happened in NY after he got thrown out by Greg Golson to end the game at third base? SKEWERED. I don't know how well he'd handle that.)
My point is that Gardner is the guy who will fit in best on the Yankees. He's younger, cheaper, and more likeable from a chemistry perspective. And if he gives you 85% of their production (the missing component being his lack of power) I am fine with it. That's why we have Cano, Teixeira, A-Rod, Granderson, and Posada/Montero/whoever. Those are the HR guys. Gardner is the play-D-and-steal-bases guy.
Now if only Kevin Long and his new 3-year contract can teach him how to lay down a friggin bunt...
I totally agree with you Jay and I meant to put a part of how well that Gardner fits on the team. I don't think that either Crawford or Werth would actually be a bad fit, but Gardner just seems to be in that mold.
ReplyDeleteMy biggest issue with him besides the bunting (and that is so frustrating) is that he's not aggressive enough on the bases. He stole bases at about an 84% clip last year and is a little over 85% for his career.
Although I totally disagree with John Sterling who thinks Gardner should steal every time he touches first base, I think Gardner needs to be more aggressive. When you don't hit for power, you need to manufacture the extra bases with you legs and sometimes Gardner is so worried about being thrown out that he doesn't realize that.
And Hal told Mike Francesca that the Yankees won't be expanding payroll (http://www.theyankeeu.com/2010/11/hal-payroll-to-stay-on-same-level-22735)
ReplyDeleteWhile that could be a bluff, if true it means that a possible Cliff Lee signing is about all that will fit after their own free agents are signed
Sorry...Michael Kay the blog post says, my B
ReplyDeleteI've heard rumors that Swisher could be on the trading block, although we heard the same thing last year.
ReplyDeleteQuite honestly, are Jason Werth and Carl Crawford tremendous upgrades over Nick Swisher or Brett Gardner? Yes, Crawford is by far the best left fielder in the majors and is incredibly talented. But with exception of power and run producing, Brett Gardner probably matches up with him well in terms of defense and speed (although he needs to be more aggressive). He also has a superior OBP ability to Crawford. Now this isn't saying that Brett Gardner is as good as Carl Crawford, which just isn't the case. But I certainly don't think Jason Werth is "werth" the investment.
The only condition under which I trade Brett Gardner is if it gets you a starting pitcher. Otherwise, he should be playing LF and batting leadoff next year.
YES....thank you, Ben. Gardner should be batting leadoff. I'm glad to hear others agree with this.
ReplyDeleteAnd it goes without saying that one of Long's offseason priorities should be teaching Gardner how to bunt for base hits. Perhaps he should adopt the Lou Brown method of coaching.
Lou Brown: Well, you can run like Hays, but you hit like shit. With your speed, you should be hitting the ball on the ground and be legging them out. Everytime I see you hit one in the air, you owe me 20 push-ups.
andrew,
ReplyDeleteI think they will concentrate on pitching. They can win with the outfield they have, however, they need to improve the pitching to get over the hump and back to the series. Nothing empirical just a gut feeling!
Charlie Alter
The biggest problem is that they had a team good enough to get it done but they did not get it done. CC and Hughes were not good in the ALCS. Their bats were dead. It will be interesting to see how Hank negotiates. i guess he said "things could get messy" with jeter. Will they play hard ball with Cliff Lee since he got hit in the Series..... are they bold enough to think that Lee and his agent don't know that George dieing in 2010 saved them a few hundred mill? This is a more interesting off season then most.
ReplyDeleteLet's keep Gardner, play some kids some more (Montero, Nunez, Nova, Albaladejo etc.) and I am also lobbying for keeping Kerry Wood.
Are you people smoking crack.. Brett G batted 259 7 hr and 39 rbi's. Really not even decent numbers for a shortstop. He is not a great fielder he can't figure were the ball is half the time he gets to some because he is fast. We went from Matsui 300 25 hr 100 rbi. Really really. keep Brett G..
ReplyDelete