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| In the end, The Grandy Man could for the Yanks in 2010 (NYP) |
Curtis Granderson came to the Yankees with great expectations, having been traded for much-heralded prospect Austin Jackson and two pitchers who were on the Major League team in 2009 (Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke). So when Jackson (and Kennedy) hit the ground running and Granderson failed to produce at the beginning of 2010, many saw it as a bust. And they weren't so far off. Although he missed most of May, Granderson wasn't missed much in the Yankees lineup as he hit .233/.302/.392 through July 20th with only 7 HR and 24 RBI. Part of Granderson's problem was a BABIP one, but at times he looked just plain overmatched at the plate. He was awful against lefties and wasn't much better against righties and his inability to get on base was making his speed worthless.
But as the season went on things started to click. Granderson hit two solo homers on July 25th against the Royals and including that win, Granderson would hit .255/.342/.557 the rest of the season with 17 HR and 43 RBI. But at the time he wasn't hitting southpaws. Anyone who watched Yankees games all season could see that Granderson's swing was too long and had too many moving parts and after swallowing his pride and working with Kevin Long in August, Granderson turned around his season against pitchers regardless of which side they threw from. From the New York Times' piece on Kevin Long we linked to a few weeks back "with a shorter swing, Granderson hit more homers (14 to 10) and drove in more runs (34 to 33) over his final 165 at-bats than he did in his first 301." September was Granderson's best month of the year as he hit .263./.362/.596 with 9 HR and 25 RBI.
His hot hitting spilled over to the playoffs where Joe Girardi started him regardless of what hand the starter was going to be pitching with and he rewarded Girardi's faith with a big hit in Game 1 of the ALDS. In the Yankees 2010 postseason Granderson hit .357/.514/.607 with 4 XBH and 6 RBI. He also had 8 walks (and one HBP) to only 5 K. Although the Yankees were eliminated, Granderson went from zero to hero for the Yankees and a lot of credit has to be given to him for his willingness to adjust mid-season when needed. Overall Granderson put up a WAR of 3.6 for the regular season which was his highest output since an amazing 7.4 in 2007. Although he got terrible jumps for much of the season, Granderson finished eighth in the Fielding Bible Awards for centerfield and had an UZR of 5.3 which was his first positive output in the past three years. And although we don't get to see the inner workings of the clubhouse, Granderson seemed to fit in well there and his adjustment to New York was completed in the playoff run.
But will the Yankees keep him in the clubhouse in 2011? Granderson is owed $8.25 M in 2011, $10 M in 2012 and then either a $13 M team option or a $2 M buyout in 2013 (the option increases to $14 M if he makes the All-Star Team in one of the next two years and $15 if he finishes in the Top 5 of the MVP voting). That means that Granderson is either a 2-year, $20.25 M player or a 3-year, $31.25 (minimum) player. That's not an untradeable contract but not many teams can afford an OF who makes over $10 M a year. And regardless of which teams will take on the contract, I'm not sure many teams will give you something of equal value for him, regardless of how the season ended.
In my opinion, I can't see a scenario where trading Curtis Granderson and signing someone else would make the Yankees that much better. Although the Yankees do have a lot of lefties and could use another right-handed power bat, they feature 3 switch hitters (Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, and Nick Swisher) in their everyday lineup and the advantage of having the righty would seem to be off-set by the cost. If the Yankees can get equal value for Granderson in a position of need like pitcher, I would say go for it because the cost savings could just be applied to a guy like Werth or Crawford who are both better players than Granderson (and an acquisition of either of those guys and the subtraction of Granderson would move Gardner to CF). I would also say go for it if the Yankees feel that Granderson's value is as high as it will be and what we saw in the playoffs is as good as it gets.
But I can't see it. The Yankees invested a lot in prospects for Granderson and giving up on him after one year (especially considering he had a mid-season injury and finished very strong) would seem to be a bit hasty. Granderson may never be a early-in-the-order, big OBP guy, but his ability to drive the ball he showed late in the season could be very valuable for the Yankees further down in the order. Unless there's a team out there who is really interested in Granderson and didn't watch the first 4 months of the season, I don't see it happening. Now as for Nick Swisher...well that's for another post.
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As hot as he ended, he trade value probably isn't that high because of his first 301 ABs and his contract.
ReplyDeleteI think perhaps we may have had unrealistic expectations as to what Granderson was as a player. A few years ago, some saw him as future All Star for years to come, which may have been an incorrect prediction.
No one doubts his skills at all. He's fast, athletic, has power, and is a good clubhouse guy. However, he also strikes out a lot (The Yankees were smart to keep him in the lower part of the lineup for most of the year). He's a good player, but certainly not an offensive anchor.
Last year, we saw the best and the worst of Curtis Granderson. I would think that his true performance is somewhere in between. He's probably at .250-.270 hitter. He won't walk a lot and strikes out a lot. He'll hit for power but won't drive in a ton of runs. But the skills he has in his favor are speed and athleticism. As long as he plays a good center field and uses the most of his speed he can still be a valuable member of the Yankees.
I'm not so much worried about the strikeouts. Although there's no chance of making a "productive out" with a strikeout, they really aren't any worse than any other type of out (and they're better than a GIDP). I see Carl Crawford as a good comp, with a lot more speed and less power. Crawford struck out over 100 times this season but no one is complaining about his propensity to whiff. In fact, Crawford had the best season of his career.
ReplyDeleteWhile there are very few players in the Carl Crawford speed range, Curtis Granderson is still ranks as one of the speedier outfielders in the league and is certainly the second fastest regular on the Yankees. I'd like to see him really try to use it even more next year. The fact that he only had 12 SB last year is absurd. He should be capable of stealing 25-30 bases.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.grandkidsfoundation.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=17&Itemid=29
ReplyDeleteThe above is the link to Grandersons charity. He seems like a solid citizen and his contract is basically unmoveable. If his season was flipped and he started well and finished lousy this would be a different conversation. needless to say Centerfielder for the Yankees is a tough spot to play.
Got a beat-up glove, a homemade bat, and brand-new pair of shoes;
You know I think it's time to give this game a ride.
Just to hit the ball and touch 'em all - a moment in the sun;
(pop) It's gone and you can tell that one goodbye!
Centerfield--- John Fogerty