Relievers: Again, 25 innings pitched qualifies you for our All-Star pickings so 66 National League relievers are in our mix to start things out. We'll start as we did yesterday by eliminating anyone with a 3.50 ERA or higher. So say so long to 20-save man Francisco Cordero (4.25 ERA), 15-save Octavio Dotel (4.85), Wilton Lopez (0.88 BB/9 but 3.52 ERA), Rafael Betancourt (6.6 SO/BB but a 5.33 ERA), Joel Hanrahan (13.07 K/9 but 4.26 ERA) or Arizona's closers from 2010 Chad Qualls (8.88 ERA) or Aaron Heilman (3.51 ERA). That eliminates 31 players to quickly chop the relievers list to 35 as we try to get down to 5.
Next we'll get rid of the extra-lucky ones so those pitchers who have an ERA-FIP of less than -1.40 (raised this time to adjust for NL, but I will make sure this time to exclude anyone whose FIP is less than 3 so we don't repeat yesterday's mistake). So we say good-bye to Jenrry Mejia (3.25 ERA but 4.80 FIP), Sergio Romo (2.64 ERA but 4.18 FIP), Javier Lopez (2.79 ERA but 4.24 FIP), and Edward Mujica (3.18 ERA but 4.60 FIP). 31 to go. Since we're in the NL, we'll also drop the xFIP expectations down to 3.70. We lose Matt Lindstrom (18 saves, but over a hit an inning and 3.87 xFIP), Ryan Franklin (15 saves, 1.39 BB/9, 3.18 xFIP), Peter Moylan (3.96 xFIP), Guillermo Mota (4.81 xFIP), Brandon Lyon (5 wins but 4.51 xFIP), Tyler Clippard (early-season phenom but has greatly cooled off and has an xFIP of 4.10), Kyle McClellan (2.50 ERA but 1 HR/9 and 3.84 xFIP), Dan Runzler (4.11 xFIP), Chad Durbin (4.20 xFIP), Sean Burnett (3.71 xFIP), and Mitchell Boggs (4.32 xFIP). 11 more down, 20 to go.
Pedro Feliciano, Johnny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty are both having great seasons but both have walked more than 4 guys per 9 innings and I can't have that from my All Star relievers. Carlos Marmol has struck out a ridiculous 16.62 per 9, but has walked 6.49 per nine which is WAY too high and his 13 saves only rank 12th in the NL (with 3 blown). So he gets the next ejection. Ryan Webb (3-1, 1.27 ERA) is having a really nice season but there are too many non-closers in front of him. The same goes for Mike Adams and Clay Hensley who aren't even the best relievers on their own teams. Jason Motte has already given up 4 HR and despite the rest of his numbers being excellent, it's too many for comfort. Matt Capps may lead the NL in saves, but he's yielded 11.23 H/9 and his .296/.329/.444 line against is too risky for a closer.
We're down to 11 and it's time for our Honorable Mentions: Matt Belisle has emerged from a really good bullpen on paper in Colorado to be the surprising best candidate out of the bullpen (and he is really good) but 3 losses so far is a lot and his 2.87 ERA may be too high for a non-closer. Leo Nunez has had a great season as the Marlins closer but 4 blown saves and a lower K-rate than any of the remaining closer candidates knocks him out of the top 5 closers so he wouldn't be in contention for a top-5 reliever. Arthur Rhodes has been phenomenal this season, but even before last night's meltdown, he came into the game with only the 27th best SO/BB ratio among relievers at 2.73. Evan Meek and Sean Marshall have been two of the best set-up men in the game, but I'm not sure they beat out the remaining candidates for a spot on the NL All-Star Team. Marshall has a 3.50 SO/BB ratio which isn't going to cut it for this team and Meek's meek 1.02 ERA doesn't compare to his 2.61 FIP or 3.08 xFIP. The last spot out was the toughest for me to figure out but the last man out is going to be Heath Bell (picture right). Despite being tied for 2nd in the league with 21 saves, Bell slots in last among the remaining relievers in SO/BB, BB/9, and H/9 (and he's given up over a hit an inning). Plus, as we'll show, he's not even the best reliever on his own team (especially after 3 blown saves).
Here are the All Stars: Luke Gregerson (pictured right) has been out-of-his mind good for San Diego with a 12.75 SO/BB ratio (best among NL relievers), less than a walk per 9, and more strikeouts than any of the remaining closers. He's been a huge part of the first-place Padres pitching prowess limiting the opposition to a .121/.152/.205 line against. Despite blowing the lead on Sunday against the Yankees, Jonathan Broxton is still the NL's best reliever. His 1.87 ERA is actually worse than his 0.94 FIP and his xFIP of 1.95 shows it's all not a fluke. He leads the NL relievers in WAR with 1.8 and has given up no home runs with season while striking out over 13 per 9 and has a sick SO/BB ratio of 7 to 1. Billy Wagner has recovered very well from surgery and has gone 5-0 with 15 saves for the surprising Braves striking out an unbelievable 13.65 per 9, a 1.19 ERA and only 5.04 H/9. Brian Wilson is tied for second in the NL in saves at 21 but has been much more effective than either Heath Bell or Matt Capps only allowing 1 homer all season and striking out 12.38 per 9. The last reliever in for the NL is Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod makes Mets fans sweat at times but he's closed the door on 17 saves and been durable enough to pitch 38 innings out of the 'pen in 2010.
Counting Stats: Wilson 2-0, 21 saves, 2.25 ERA, 44 K; K-Rod 2-1, 17 saves, 2.13 ERA 48 K; Broxton 3-0, 16 saves, 1.87 ERA, 49 K; Wagner 5-0, 15 saves, 1.19 ERA, 46 K; Gregerson 2-2, 1 save, 1.60 ERA, 51 K.
Starters: Let's take Stephen Strasburg out of the equation for now and we'll figure out if he belongs later on in our group of 8. To qualify for our list of starters, you have to qualify for the ERA title. As in the American League, 55 starters qualify for the ERA title in the National League. Let's take out all the pitchers whose ERAs are over 4.50. Unfortunately that eliminates Dan Haren (115 K, 5.23 SO/BB, but 4.56 ERA), Ricky Nolasco (10.15 K/9 but 4.84 ERA), Edwin Jackson (no-hitter but 4.63 ERA), and others. We have 41 left. Next we'll copy our AL threshold and eliminate anyone whose winning percentage is less that .450 and haven't won 5 games. So say good-bye to Ted Lilly (3.12 ERA but 3-6), Wade LeBlanc (3.25 ERA but 4-6), Ian Kennedy 3.77 ERA, 89 K, but 3-6), and others. We're down to 34.
Next we look at anyone whose ERA has been depressed by luck. So we say so-long to Braves ace Tim Hudson (2.37 ERA but 4.37 FIP due to an awful 1.28 SO/BB ratio) and Livan Hernandez (3.10 ERA but 4.40 FIP because of 4.01 K/9 and a 1.38 SO/BB). 32. xFIPs of higher than 4.25 are eliminated here as well. So say so-long to Matt Cain (2.93 ERA, but only 6.35 K/9 and 4.70 xFIP), Jonathan Sanchez (3.03 ERA, 88 K, but 4.35 BB/9 leading to 4.25 xFIP), Jon Garland (8-5, but only 1.59 SO/BB ratio and 4.34 xFIP), Anibal Sanchez (7-4 but a hit per inning, and unsustainably low HR rate and 4.50 xFIP), Mike Leake (5-1 as a surprising rookie star, but over a hit per inning leading to 4.42 xFIP), Barry Zito (7-4 in a bounceback year, but 4.67 xFIP), Johan Santana (solid, but only 5.71 K/9 for former strikeout king and also 4.67 xFIP), Johnny Cueto (8-2 for the surprising Reds but 4.35 xFIP), Paul Maholm (WHIP of 1.516 and 4.74 xFIP), Jamie Moyer (9-6 with 1.048 WHIP and 3 SO/BB ratio but gopher-prone with 15 given up to date and 4.53 xFIP), and Bronson Arroyo (7-4 but 51st among NL starters with a 1.33 SO/BB ratio and only 4.4 K/9 and 5.15 xFIP 3rd worst in NL). 21 to go.
How about those guys who have given up too many baserunners or too many home runs without enough other compensating for it? That includes Jason Hammel (6-3 but almost 10 H/9), Cole Hamels (2.75 SO/BB but over a hit an inning and a killer 1.79 HR/9 leading to a really high 18 home runs allowed), Tommy Hanson (2.9 SO/BB ratio but 9.4 H/9 and 4.50 ERA), Chad Billingsly (9.25 H/9 and 3.16 BB/9), Hiroki Kuroda (3.27 ERA but 9.32 H/9) and Brett Myers (only a 3.61 ERA but 9.39 H/9 and 3.1 BB/9). 15 to go.
Let's get into our Honorable Mentions: Clayton Richard and Clayton Kershaw are both having great seasons but I don't see how either one cracks our top-8. Richard has a 2.75 ERA for San Diego but his SO/BB ratio under 2 to 1 and FanGraphs pitching WAR of 1.3 makes me think that he's going to miss the cut. Kershaw is all of 22-years-old and has 9.85 K/9 and is 7-4, but he also has 4.38 BB/9 and an xFIP of 4.11 which is almost a run higher tan his ERA. Ryan Dempster continues to put up solid numbers for the Cubs but at a 3.58 ERA, he's a little high in a pitcher's year and has given up 1.22 HR/9. Roy Oswalt continues to dominate with a 3.34 SO/BB ratio despite the cast around him but 10 losses and a 3.55 ERA is not All-Star material in 2010. Jaime Garcia and Mat Latos (pictured right) have been two of the best rookies in the National League but they just misses the cut. Garcia, despite having the 3rd best ERA in the league at 2.27, has the 32nd best 1.89 SO/BB ratio and is hurt by his 3.81 BB/9. Latos has been great with an 8-4 record, 2.85 ERA, and 3.23 SO/BB, but he can't crack the top-8 in a very tough year with only 1.4 WAR.
Now here's where the NL really gets competitive: you have Chris Carpenter, Carlos Silva, Mike Pelfrey, and Stephen Strasburg (I told you we'd get him back into the conversation), and between those 4, you only have two spots. Chris Carpenter is 9-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 2.94 SO/BB ratio but has struck out exactly as many guys as he's given up hits to and has given up a home run every 9 innings. Carlos Silva has had an amazing bounceback year at 8-2 with a 3.01 ERA, 4.07 SO/BB, 1.56 B.9 and 1.05 WHIP but has only struck out 6.33 per 9. Mike Pelfrey is 10-2 with a 2.71 ERA but his SO/BB ratio is only 38th best at 1.85 and he's struckout only 5.69 per 9 while giving up almost 8 hits per 9 (which is the highest among the rest of the candidates). And Stephen Strasburg has only started 5 games but has a 2.27 ERA and a FIP (1.59) and xFIP (1.54) that would lead the league if he qualified. So the debate is on. But Strasburg also has 13.64 K/9, 1.99 BB/9 and already has amassed a pitching WAR of 1.5. As harsh as it is, I'm leaving out Carlos Silva and Mike Pelfrey who, if they pitched this way in any other year, would definitely be All Stars.
The All-Star Game starters for the NL: I side with Craig Calcaterra of NBC's HardballTalk: there's no debate, Stephen Strasburg belongs in the All-Star Game. If the goal is either to win the game or be an exhibition for the fans (which seems to be the two goals), Strasburg has a place in this game. Chris Carpenter is probably my last man in and although I tried to find ways to keep him out, he's been better than Mike Pelfrey and Carlos Silva. Josh Johnson has been unbelievable and most people have missed him because of Strasburg, Jiminez and Halladay but he's right there with a NL-leading 1.83 ERA, 0.963 WHIP, 3.6 WAR, and 3.96 SO/BB with only 0.33 HR/9. Ubaldo Jiminez is 14-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 3.3 WAR. If that's not an All-Star, I don't know what is. Roy Halladay is "only" fourth in the league with a 2.29 ERA and somehow has lost 6 games, but he has a SO/BB ratio of 6 to 1 which is the best in the NL as well as an NL-leading 3.8 WAR to go along with 5 complete games (3 of which were shutouts). Many expected a drop-off for Adam Wainwright in 2010 but he picked up right where he left up last year and has 11 wins to go along with his 2.34 ERA and 3.56 SO/BB ratio. Everyone wants to know what's wrong with Tim Lincecum but I would love a 26-year-old pitcher who strikes out 10.16 per 9 and you have to wonder what's wrong with him. I would like to point out that Yovani Gallardo and Ubaldo Jiminez were my sleeper picks behind Roy Halladay to win the NL Cy Young this year and while Jiminez gets all the press, Gallardo has enjoyed quite a fine season of his own leading the National League in Ks and racking up an 8-3 record with a 2.56 ERA leading to a WAR of 2.9.
Counting Stats: Johnson 8-3, 1.83 ERA, 107 K, 0.963 WHIP; Jiminez 14-1, 1.83 ERA, 102 K, 1.053 WHIP; Halladay 9-6, 2.29 ERA, 102 K, 1.074 WHIP; Wainwright 11-5, 2.34 ERA, 114 K, 1.031 WHIP; Gallardo 8-3, 2.56 ERA, 120 K, 1.229 WHIP; Carpenter 9-1, 2.70 ERA, 100 K, 1.149 WHIP; Lincecum 8-3, 3.13 ERA, 117 K, 1.254 WHIP; Strasburg 2-2, 2.27 ERA, 48 K, 1.011 WHIP.
That concludes our All-Star team. So what do you think? What changes would you have made to these All-Star pitchers? Would you include Strasburg? Would you have added/subtracted anyone? Let us know in the comments below.
Pictures from NBC Sports, EndScore, Bleacher Report, NBC Sports, New York Daily News and ESPN, respectively.
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Picking pitchers in the NL this year is really tough because there have been a lot of good ones. In an ordinary year Matt Cain and Mike Pelfrey would be locks. Also, although Gregerson has been better than Bell, Bell has still been a big reason why the Padres have been playing so well and will probably make the team. I also wouldn't be surprised if Latos makes his way onto the team.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I was looking at your statistical analysis and realized that by your requirements, you basically have to be a power-strikeout pitcher with an outstanding strikeout-walk ratio in order to make the team. Obviously, this is what you want out of any pitcher (great control and less contact). However, it does eliminate great sinkerball pitchers who may not amass a ton of strikeouts and naturally allow a higher number of hits per inning due to the increased amount of bpip.
Also, a good strikeout-walk ratio is telling but what about a pitcher who doesn't really strikeout a lot of batters but also doesn't walk many. Are you putting all of the credit in the guys playing behind the pitcher or can we actually give credit to a guy who finds ways to get outs effectively.
On the flip side, there are the guys who strike out a ton of batters but also walk a ton. By your standards, guys like Nolan Ryan (who also had a mediocre winning percentage) and a younger Randy Johnson (flame throwing strikeout pitcher who also walked a ton of batters) would probably fail to make your team.
But Nolan Ryan would have a good strikeout to walk ratio because he struck out so many batters (and I believe Ryan was overrated anyways but that's for another post). Baseball is a simple sport: you want to get as many outs as possible on defense. And if you allow more balls to be put into play, you're going to allow more hits. If you're not going to get swings and misses, you can't walk guys--it's unsustainable.
ReplyDeleteThe same is true of sinkerball pitchers. The reign of these guys if they don't strikeout anyone is really short unless they have great control. You can only allow so many balls to be hit in play and not expect it to find holes.
But I understand your argument. But does that mean I rather have a sinkerball pitcher like Pelfrey instead of Strasburg (or even Oswalt)? Nope. Not a chance.
I was actually trying to think of someone who defied the rules successfully and the person who came to mind was Tom Glavine. His strikeout to walk ratio was mediocre but he always had a low ERA and a good winning percentage.
ReplyDeleteSame thing could be said for a guy like Al Leiter (at least the version who pitched for the Mets).
Also with regards to Ryan, although you think he may be statistically overrated, ask any major leaguer who had the chance to face him on multiple occasions and they will tell you that he was probably the toughest pitcher stuff-wise that they ever had to face.
ReplyDelete