"Expert" MLB Predictions

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball... I stare out the window and wait for spring." - Rogers Hornsby

There are heavy quotes around "expert". I am far from it. I'll do a separate preview later of the two New York squads. But here are my overall thoughts on the Major League Baseball season (subject to change at any time with no money-back guarantee).

 

AL East

1) Red Sox

2) Yankees (Wild Card)

3) Rays

4) Blue Jays

5) Orioles

 

The "Did You Know" section of ESPN mobile said that the Yankees spent over 4 times as much this offseason as the next 4 closest clubs. So can their blowing away of the competition off the field translate to on it? I think it can. This is a stacked rotation 1-5.
A.J. Burnett and Joba Chamberlain may be health risks, but Phil Hughes and Alfredo Aceves are waiting in the wing this year instead of Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner. They are still not a good defensive team, but they've improved in right, 1st, and CF. The keys will be the bullpen (which was superb last year) and health of guys like A-Rod, Jeter and Posada: the three guys that don't have everyday-ready backups. 

So why did I pick the Red Sox to finish first? Reverse Jinx. Well, not totally that. This team has a dominant bullpen and starting rotation. Their starting pitching goes about 9 deep. They have some major-league ready arms waiting for callups to supplement that bullpen. And if John Smoltz comes back, they could just stick him in the 8th. How scary is that? The one biggest fear for Sox fans has to be the fact they are one bat short in the middle of the order (especially if Big Papi goes down). This is why they went so hard after Teixeira. But they spent the money they didn't use on Tex wisely bringing in guys like Baldelli, Penny, Saito, Smoltz, and others to fill holes nicely.

Too often we pick Cinderella teams in baseball to repeat their success the next year. The glass slipper doesn't always fit twice. If you look at some teams that have gone to the World Series in recent years with so-so bullpens (or, rather, bullpens that have greatly overachieved)--Cards, Tigers, Astros, ChiSox, etc.--they have not been able to duplicate their success the next year. Still, I like some of the moves that the Rays made, especially picking up Burrell for cheap to balance out that lineup. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 1st or 2nd in the division, but I think, in the end, they'll come in 3rd.

The Blue Jays were supposed to be what the Rays were last year: the AL East team that developed talent and came out of no place to win. It just hasn't happened and won't this year. Doc Halladay is a beast at starting pitcher, but after him, what big-time players do you have? BJ Ryan is coming off injury. Vernon Wells looks like he'll never develop into what many thought he would. Alex Rios is a fine player, but can he carry an offense? The key for Toronto will be the development of it's young pitching and the play of Travis Snider who looks like he could be a ROY candidate.

The Orioles just need to worry about developing some useful trade candidates for July so that they can bring in some more young talent to play alongside guys like Wieters, Markakis, and Adam Jones.

 

AL Central

1) Tigers

2) Indians 

3) White Sox

4) Twins

5) Royals

 

There are a few truly awful divisions in baseball and this is probably the worst. 86 wins should be enough to take this division. And I do believe any team could win it. But one team has to come in first. So we'll go last to first to eliminate teams in this division:

The Royals are a good, young team with some good pitching at the front-end and the back-end but they are a little thin in middle relief and lack the defense and hitting needed to win. This is a team that is going with Teahen as their Opening Day 2nd baseman (a position he hasn't played since his freshman year of college) just because they need the bat.

The Twins have the M&M boys, but not much else. Liriano doesn't look like the next Santana and this team seems like it has a ton of holes. Good luck filling it in that market in this economy...

The White Sox I had everyplace on this map. I think they're going to miss Javier Vazquez badly. And I've heard that Bobby Jenks may not be at the level he once was. That would be doom for this team which is relying a lot on older players to carry their lineup.

The Indians should be #1 but I just don't trust their pitching at the front-end or the back-end. This is a team going with Carl Pavano as a #3 starter. 'Nuff said. Fausto Carmona needs to carry this team, especially since Cliff Lee looked nothing like an ace this spring. I love some of their hitters and their defense should be good, but they need Travis Hafner to bounce back if they want to have that middle-of-the-lineup bat on offense

And that leaves the Tigers. There is one caveat here: This pick is only valid if they don't have to trade away salary due to the toxic Detroit economy. But the one hope I have there is seeing them dump Gary Sheffield, taking the salary hit to improve the team. This team should be slightly better defensively than last year's team which had a lot of moving parts and some big holes. They should also be a pretty darn good offensively with Cabrera (who could win the MVP) and Ordonez mashing in the middle of that lineup. The one concern on paper is their pitching which seems to be one starter and one bullpen arm short. But in a division of teams with problems, Detroit seems to have the least.

 

AL West

1) Angels

2) A's

3) Rangers

4) Mariners

 

Another bad division. The Angels will be without Lackey, Santana and Escobar for a long time. They never replaced Teixeira's bat in that lineup. And they lost their closer. But somehow they seem to have the best team. They also have the best manager. I'm not saying they'll run away with it, but they seem like the best team on paper.

The Athletics are an interesting mixture: They have good, young starting pitching that's not yet developed and older, more experienced position players that are built to win now. If this team starts to fall out of the race, guys like Holliday will be gone. So it's imperative for this team to get off to a fast start. But this actually should be a very good lineup with Giambi and Holliday added. But can they replace the likes of Harden and Street on the pitching side? Time will tell with these youngsters. But besides Giambi at 1B, this should be a really good defensive team.

The Rangers haven't been to the playoffs in a long time, mostly because of bad free agent signings. They got rid of a lot of their worst, but still have Kevin Millwood and Vincente Padilla going 1-2 in their rotation (and Kris Benson #3!). Otherwise, this should be a good team. With Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Josh Hamilton in the middle of the lineup, they should be able to produce the offense. The question will be what the score is when they finally do...

And, lastly, the Mariners. This is a team that must be full of regret. They traded for Erik Bedard and he looks like a scared shell of the former Baltimore pitcher. They threw money at Carlos Silva, Miguel Batista, Jeff Weaver, and Jarrod Washburn to fill starting pitching roles and all have been pretty bad. And then they missed a chance to let the Yankees take Washburn away from them last season. So now they have new management in place and they should be a better team. But this team still has no offense. Who is going to hit more than 15 homers for them? Anyone? Losing Raul Ibanez hurts them more than it helps Philly.

 

NL East

1) Phillies

2) Mets (Wild Card)

3) Braves

4) Marlins

5) Nats

 

I know. That was the easy pick. But this is definitely the best division in the NL. And it's a lot closer than you think...

If the Braves pick up a bat (like Matt Holiday or Magglio Ordonez) at the trade deadline, they vault to #1 on the list. Right now they're too thin in the bullpen, back-end of the rotation and especially in the lineup to put them in the top 2, but they're awfully close. They have a good front 2, they have some good role players, I think they just need a big bat to go in the middle of the lineup with Chipper and Brian McCann.

The Marlins could surprise everyone and win this thing, but I also think they'll need to make a move at the trade deadline. Kevin Gregg is another one of those players who I think hurt his former team more than help his current team. I think the Florida bullpen is thin and their defense with Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla up the middle is below average. I think this team will scare a lot of people this year and are my early pick for the NL East in 2010.

The Nats are horrible. I don't think Ryan Zimmerman is going to be a great player so they really don't have any one position player to build a team/lineup around. I think Adam Dunn was a good pickup, but will be even better if they can trade him in July for some good young talent. On the pitching side, I think this team can get excited by what Jordan Zimmermann has showed this spring. I think maybe 13 wins may be all his capable of this year, but developing him is an important step for the Nationals.

That leaves our final 2. And, really, it could go either way. But how the Mets have choked the past two Septembers, I have to go with Philly. The biggest problem with the Mets is they haven't really changed their positional core from the past two year's collapses. Reyes, Castillo, Delgado, Beltran, and Wright are all still there. Now if you truly believe the problem was solely their bullpen, then fine, this team is much improved. But the problem wasn't just the bullpen: this team couldn't hit in the clutch. I think they missed out on a golden opportunity to get Manny Ramirez (or even a guy like Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu) who could propel them over the top. They have to worry about K-Rod's arm with that violent motion and the fact that he pitched multiple innings during the WBC this spring after not doing it at all last season. But Putz may be the most important pickup they made because of that.

I was tempted to throw the Phillies off their pedestal. They made a bad move by going out and getting Ibanez, a guy who didn't seem to fit into their lineup (and who they could have waited to sign and got for a lot less). Their starting pitching is shaky: Hamels is already dealing with injuries, Myers has gopherball syndrome, Moyer is close to 50, and Blanton and Park are average at best. But the bullpen is just as good and this lineup can mash (it's the best in the NL). The key for Philly will be starting pitching to get them back to the World Series.

 

NL Central

1) Cubs

2) Cardinals

3) Reds

4) Astros

5) Brewers

6) Pirates

 

Pro/Con list:

Cubs

Pros: Good lineup now with high Bradley's high OPS to go along with some bashers, a really good starting rotation, and some great bullpen arms.

Cons: Gregg may not be the answer at closer, Bradley never plays a full season, Fukudome looks like a potential bust, and the loss of DeRosa will hurt.

Cardinals

Pros: Carpenter looks like he's back, Wainright has developed into a very good pitcher and they have Sir Albert in the middle of any lineup.

Cons: The bullpen has some good arms, but no defined closer, Ludwick may have been a one-hit-wonder, and if Carpenter doesn't come back fully, the pitching they have may not be enough

Reds

Pros: Good young nucleus with Votto, Phillips, and Bruce on the filed and Volquez and Cueto pitching. Lots of energy and speed.

Cons: Never replaced Adam Dunn's bat, Aaron Harang looked a little off last year, Dusty Baker is not good for a young team, and this team seems like it's still a little while away.

Astros

Pros: Ivan Rodriguez was a good pickup to help out a lineup with Tejada, Lee and Berkman in the middle and from Roy Oswalt to Valverde, they have a good SP-RP combo.

Cons: They have very suspect starting pitching other than Oswalt, Tejada is a criminal, they can never draft anyone worthwhile because their owner is in bed with the commissioner's office and they may not have enough middle relief.

Brewers

Pros: They made the playoffs last year so they know how to get there, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are big-time middle-of-the-order bats, and Gallardo should be a big part of this team.

Cons: They barely made the playoffs with Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia who put this team on his back, their pitching is pretty spotty and they don't have a ton of depth anyplace.

Pirates

Pros: They can't be any worse and they have some good, young prospects

Cons: They will having a losing record for the 17th consecutive season and that's a major league record. 'Nuff Said.

 

NL West

1) Dodgers

2) Diamondbacks

3) Giants

4) Rockies

5) Padres

 

I originally had the Dodgers 3rd. I think Manny Ramirez makes that much of a difference. The Diamondbacks or Giants could win this division also. The Padres will come in dead last and if they trade Jake Peavy, they'll be one of the worst teams in the league. The Rockies seem like a 4th place team to me, but could rise depending on development of their youth. The Giants were tempting to pick in the top 2. They have a really, really good rotation. They just have no hitting. None. Manny Ramirez would have propelled them to 1st as well. The Diamondback's success depends on their 1-2 starters Webb and Haren. If those two combine for 35 wins, they could win this division. The Dodgers seem to me to be the most complete team. They have hitting, starting pitching and bullpen. They will miss Derek Lowe and they may have to get a starter at the deadline, though Kuroda/Billingsley/Kershaw should be a good 1/2/3. But this team should be good enough to win this division if MannyBeingManny is Manny.

 

MVP Predictions: MannyBeingManny and Miguel Cabrera. Cy Young Predictions: Johan Santana and CC Sabathia.

 

As for playoffs? I'll take the Yanks/Sox and Phillies/Cubs in the league championship series, with the Cubs taking it all over the Sox in the battle of the Curses. Why not? It's probably never going to happen, but spring is here, it's opening day and anything can happen. That's why I love baseball.