Hot Stove Coal: A Few Early Grades

It's never too early or too late to assign some early grades on moves made by Major League Baseball teams and players this off-season. Let's take a quick look:

Boston Red Sox: It's been a strange conversion from the slugging idiots that won in 2004 to this team. With trading away Mike Lowell (who was the worst defensive third basemen in the majors last year...though may not be traded just yet) combined with the signings of Marco Scutaro, Mike Cameron and John Lackey (who looks like "Haywire" from Prison Break) the focus has seemed to shift to defense, run prevention, and baseball savvy. I just don't know where the offense will come from this team unless Big Papi has a bounceback year or Mike Cameron finds the fountain of youth in Boston--he's 37 and Jorge Arangure tweets: "@jorgearangure: Bill James Handbook not very optimistic about Mike Cameron. Predicts .237/.328/.428 season in 2010." (shouldn't Bill James, a Red Sox employee, alert them to these matters?). If healthy, the trio of Lackey, Josh Beckett, and Jon Lester is as devastating as they come...but that's a big if with the first two. I don't think they're done, though. Adrian Gonzalez for Clay Bucholz (with Lackey now in the rotation), Jacoby Ellsbury (with Mike Cameron on the team), and a high level prospect seems like the way to go for the Sox. But if they trade Ellsbury, they need to find a corner infielder (to replace Lowell) and a corner outfielder (since Cameron would shift to CF, his natural position). Some really like their moves but it seems to me like a lot is still in the works so I'll give the Red Sox a B so far.

New York Yankees: I had to follow one with the other, right? The Yankees are coming off a World Series championship (which they are still celebrating) and need to balance "if ain't broke, don't fix it" with "never be satisfied". The trade for Curtis Granderson continues their quest to get younger and the signing of Andy Pettitte fills a hole in the rotation, but the team still needs a left fielder/DH and probably another pitcher. Johnny Damon is a good option for the Yankees but they'll only wait so long for him to decide (though many think he'll end up back in the Bronx including me). If not, guys like Matt Holliday/Jason Bay, Nick Johnson, Vlad Guerrero, and others start looking like other options. And as for starter, now that Roy Halladay and John Lackey are unavailable, look for the Yankees to look at low-risk/high-reward guys like Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer, Chien-Ming Wang or even a guy like Jarrod Washburn. The Yankees aren't done but they're improved. And the biggest thing? The Yankees didn't clean out the farm system going after a Halladay or clean out the bank account going after a Holliday just because the Red Sox did something showing this is definitely not George Steinbrenner's teams of past. Sometimes you can have a grand day without doing anything. I'd give the Yankees off-season so far a B as well.

New York Yankees 2010 Postseason: The Yankees are screwed. Why? Not because they lost their World Series MVP or the guy who pulled off a double steal on the same play or even because Cody Ransom left the organization. It's because A-Rod and Kate Hudson split. Nooooooooooooooooo! F!

Scott Boras clients: Not really working out so well for them so far. Johnny Damon seems to think he's going to get another 4-year, $52 million contract from someone but who would be dumb enough to give that to him at 36? He better start looking around. Matt Holliday? Still on holiday and waiting for that Mark Teixeira-like deal. Adrian Beltre? He might price himself out with the Red Sox which would leave him in a precarious situation since there's not a lot of other teams who can afford to pay him what he wants. Rick Ankiel? Not on anyone's radar. Somehow the one Boras client to get signed was Ivan Rodriguez. Oh those Nationals... I'd give Scott Boras a C- so far

Seattle Mariners: I want to declare them big winners of the winter for getting Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins...but they depleted their minor leagues and they still don't have any power in that lineup. Hopefully Figgins and Ichiro can steal home a lot. Still, the duos of King Felix and Lee at the top of the rotation and Ichiro and Figgins at the top of the lineup will be hard for many teams to deal with. I just can't give them higher than a B right now.

Cliff Lee: You know the Seinfeld episode where Jerry's girlfriend asks Jerry to decide between "the voice" and her? He surprises her and everyone by choosing "the voice" (hellloooooooo!). I think that's sort of what Cliff Lee must have felt here. Lee's contract demands were said to be about what CC Sabathia got. So Philly decided to basically trade one year of Lee and heartache when he leaves for four much cheaper years of Roy Halladay. In the end, Jerry's choice of "the voice" doesn't work out (and I'm not sure the Phillies choice will either), but the person most hurt in the end is the ex-girlfriend (who in this metaphor is Lee). Lee might have missed they money fountain and goes from the NL favorites to a good, but not great team so I'll give Lee a C.

Philadelphia Phillies: I don't know. I'm not a big Placido Polanco fan, but then again I wasn't a big Raul Ibanez fan and look at the season he had. I think they were better off going for it all with Halladay and Lee or just keeping Lee...but you can't argue with having Roy Halladay. I just think they took a big dent in their farm system (maybe a really big dent) without greatly improving their team which is a tough swallow and I would have gone a different avenue. They also need a better alternative in the 'pen (John Smoltz?) in case Brad Lidge falters again next season. At least they have Cody Ransom I'll give the Phillies a C+ so far.

Los Angeles Dodgers: The organization is a mess because of the divorce of the McCourts. They didn't offer arbitration to their free agents because they didn't want to pay the draft picks. They won't make any big trades or signings. The only trades they made were to acquire cheap Rule 5 picks and to get rid of Juan Pierre's high salary. This is a big mess for Scott Boras, especially. This was a team on the cusp of the World Series which is going to watch everyone else get better around them. I think you have to give them an F.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Two winters ago they lost Mark Teixeira and K-Rod. This winter they lost John Lackey, Chone Figgins and Vlad Guerrero. Their one big addition? Hideki Matsui. Matsui is an upgrade over Vlad (and may steal Japanese reporters from the Yankees), but they're losing ground to other teams. Not a good start for Arte Moreno's squad: C+.

Bud Selig: The World Series ended with huge questions about instant replay, the length of the playoffs, announcing, etc. Where are those issues now? Drowned out by Tiger Woods and the Hot Stove. His two biggest announcements of the off-season were that he may be stepping down and that he's forming a committee. Small market teams are spending money and big market teams are being thrifty bringing about the parity that commissioners dream of. I always believe a sport is best served when the commissioner is not part of the news. Nice job, Bud, you get an A-.

Chicago White Sox: I'll let Twitter handle this one: @CliffCorcoran: Updating prev tweet: Rios! Teahen! Kotsay! 43-year-old Vizquel! Bloated corpse of Andruw Jones! De Aza! Putz! Pierre! White Sox in '10! D

New York Mets: Well at least they have depth at catcher (?). At least Johan Santana is popular in Venezuela (?). They missed out on all the pitchers (including cheaper options like Randy Wolf). They made a good Rule 5 pick and then traded him away. Their rightfielder had serious ligament replacement. Their shortstop has been day-to-day for six months and "doesn't want to be a leader". Their star centerfielder may or may not be healthy. Their best bet may be to overpay for a left fielder who may better as a DH and was once on the Mets. And they can't sell seats. At least they painted the Stadium colors of their team. So far, they get a D+.

Toronto Blue Jays: They got rid of B.J. Ryan, Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen and Alex Rios. They played the Red Sox and are going to get two picks from them just for giving them the pleasure of singing Marco Scuatro. They got the prospects they wanted from the Blue Jays and didn't trade him within the division. They still have an albatross in Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay is better off traded, but I like what they've done to start over. That being said, they probably won't be good next year. I'll give them a B.

Joe Mauer: The less money the Yankees and Red Sox spend this winter, the more they have available to give him a huge contract next off-season. He's hoping that Matt Holliday and Jason Bay go to someone else so he can pave his way to a huge payday as he finds a mantle for his MVP award. I'll give him an A.

Atlanta Braves: Derek Lowe is now a hot pitching commodity that they can get a decent player from the Angels for...who would have thunk that? A-

Technology, Twitter and Statheads: No one had a better winter than this group (which I just grouped together for the heck of it). The two Cy Young winners were picked not because of wins and the AL MVP was picked not because of home runs. Then the creator of Baseball-Reference was admitted into the BBWAA and Bloomberg got into the baseball statistics game. But no one had a better off-season than Twitter which has become a big player in baseball--where rumors and deals and everything in between are broken first and where the rumor mill churns fastest. Sure there are false reports that get leaked, but it's not like that didn't happen already. Baseball writers have forgone their papers, their columns, their radio spots and their blogs to be the first one to tweet the big scoop. Twitter has become the go-to source for all baseball moves and that's why they get my only A+.

Guess the sports song

H/T to Richard for this one

A Trade Evolution: Mulder to Halladay/Lee with Holliday in Between

Sometimes, trades just continue to flow. Here is a cool one for how Mark Mulder actually ended up getting involved in the Roy Halladay-Cliff Lee deal being finished up and how Holliday and Halladay are closer than you think...and how that wily Billy Beane seems to be a part of all of this.

The Oakland A's traded Mark Mulder to the St. Louis Cardinals for Daric Barton, Kiko Calero and Dan Haren.

The Oakland A's traded Dan Haren with Connor Robertson to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Chris Carter, Brett Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith.

The Oakland A's traded Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith and Huston Street to the Colorado Rockies for Matt Holliday.

The Oakland A's traded Matt Holliday to the St. Louis Cardinals for Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson.

The Oakland A's have agreed to trade Brett Wallace for Michael Taylor who is being traded to the Blue Jays with Travis d'Arnaud and Kyle Drabek for Roy Halladay (who is being dealt in the same deal as Cliff Lee).

Got all that (H/T to Baseball Reference for all the deals)? You would be missing a few positions, but you could field a pretty good team with all those players.

Reviewing the NFC Playoff Picture

Earlier we reviewed the AFC Playoff Picture. Let's take a look now at what's going on in the NFC.

NFC:

1. New Orleans Saints. 13-0

The Saints have already clinched the division and a first-round bye. They can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win vs. Dallas and a Minnesota loss vs. Carolina. With games left against Tampa Bay and Carolina, it may just be a formality at this point for the home-field advantage, the real question is whether this team can go 16-0. If they beat Dallas this weekend, it looks like smooth sailing the rest of the way.

2. Minnesota Vikings. 11-2

Amazingly, all Minnesota has clinched so far is a playoff birth. The Vikings can clinch the division this week with a win or a Green Bay loss and they can clinch a first-round bye with a win and a Philly loss. Playing Carolina this week, they should at least wrap up the division and the Giants are hoping they can wrap up the bye before their Week 17 game.

3. Philadelphia Eagles. 9-4

The Eagles had a chance to lose a bad game to the Giants and have a chance of falling out of the playoff race. Now they're driving the playoff race and trying to wrap up the #4 seed. The Eagles can clinch a playoff spot with a win and either a Giants loss or a Dallas win. Yes, the Eagles, if they win, will be rooting for their enemies, the Dallas Cowboys, to do the same. Strange times. The Eagles play hot San Francisco and Denver at home before going to Dallas for Week 17. The Eagles will have to continue to play strong to win the division. 75% of NYaT voters thought that the Eagles would make the playoffs and that % should go up this week?

4. Arizona Cardinals. 8-5 / San Francisco 49ers. 6-7
I know it's weird to put them together but San Fran's only way into the playoffs is through the last divisional spot. The Cards lost a chance to clinch the division and lost Larry Fitzgerald last night against the 49ers. But I don't think they have much of a chance of losing the division. Arizona needs a win against lowly Detroit this next week and for San Francisco to lose to the Eagles in Philly to clinch the division. Even if somehow they don't do it this week, the Cards play St. Louis in Week 16...but the 49ers also get the Rams and Lions after Philly. So if San Fran can get through Philly, they should be 9-7 which means that Arizona needs to find a way to win a few games here. 75% of people voting in the poll thought the Cards would make it but 0% thought the 49ers would. I wonder if that % goes up this week?

5. Green Bay Packers. 9-4.

If this team didn't lose to lowly Tampa Bay, they'd be competing for the division. The Packers can clinch a playoff spot with a win vs. Pittsburgh and either a Dallas loss or a Giants loss. Their situation may be even more complicated than that. From CBS Sports' "Tiebreaker Expert" Joe Ferreira (see if you can keep up with this): "The GB situation is interesting.  Since GB beat DAL H2H and there is no other team that DAL can use from another division in a three-team tiebreaker, DAL would need to win the East division title to keep GB out.  If DAL loses this week to NO, the potential three-team tie for the division title among PHIL, DAL and NYG could stretch out to strength of victory if PHI win is against DEN.  However, it appears there is no way in that scenario that DAL could finish ahead of NYG, meaning DAL would have no chance to win the division, which means they could not clinch a playoff spot ahead of GB." With games against Pittsburgh, Seattle and Arizona, Green Bay has a chance of having a very good season and should give fits to whoever gets the #4 seed. Only 62% of you thought they'd make the playoffs in our last poll, but that number should be much higher this week.

6. Dallas Cowboys. 8-5.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say I think the Giants are going to make the playoffs over Dallas. Why? Dallas schedule the rest of the way is brutal and they may not have DeMarcus Ware for a little while which would put even more strain on a bad secondary. Dallas has games left at New Orleans, at Washington and then against Philly. Ouch. Dallas is only 3-3 on the road this season as well. This could be a 9-7 team. 87% of voters thought the 'Boys would make the playoffs but I don't know if anyone is as confident anymore.

7. New York Giants. 7-6.

This team doesn't deserve to make the playoffs. Their defensive coordinator should be fired. Their star defensive player (Osi Umenyora) looks like a shell of his former self and is just getting manhandled on the field. Their wide receivers can hold on to the ball. Their special teams coverage stinks. And their two kickers should be cut. Yet this team has a clear shot at the playoffs. The Giants remaining games are at Washington (who they beat in Week 1), at home vs. Carolina (who they should beat at 5-8), and end on the road at Minnesota (who should have everything locked up by then and be resting starters). If they win 3 games, they're not guaranteed a playoff spot, but Dallas would have to win out and Philly would have to win their first two and then lose against Dallas. The Giants controlled their own destiny and now need help. Their schedule may be the greatest help. And this is a Giants team that won the Super Bowl two years ago as a #6 seed that looked like it had a lot of holes coming into the playoffs and everyone expected would get bounced early.

8. Atlanta Falcons. 6-7.

I don't see a scenario where they get in, but it is mathematically possible and with games against the Jets, Buffalo and Tampa, it's likely they'll get to 9-7. But I don't know if 9-7 gets you in, especially not ahead of the Giants or Cowboys who hold the tiebreaker against the Falcons. And I don't know if they get to 9-7 if Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are still injured. Sorry Atlanta. Their 12% confidence should go down a lot this week.

What do you think? Who will join the Saints and the Vikings in the playoffs.

Reviewing the AFC Playoff Picture

I'm still trying to get over the Giants disappointing loss to the Eagles where a Michael Boley missed TAINT still haunts my dreams. But let's take a look at the playoff picture heading into Week 15 for the AFC and we'll do the NFC right after.

AFC:

1. Indianapolis Colts. 13-0

The Colts have homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs wrapped up and the only thing left to accomplish in the regular season is winning 3 more games. With Jacksonville, the Jets and Buffalo on the schedule, they should be able to do that.

2. San Diego Chargers. 10-3

It's pretty simple for San Diego. They win in Week 15, they're in and clinch the AFC West. If they win and Denver and New England loses, they get a first round bye. There's a lot of other scenarios to get in for the Bolts, but a win against Cincy at home would make it much easier. They should be the division winners at the very least. 83% of you thought they'd make the playoffs and it seems like it's just a formality at this point.

3. Cincinnati Bengals. 9-4

Another team that has it simple: win and they're the division winners. A Ravens loss (unlikely vs. the Bears) would get them the same thing. This team plays Kansas City next week so the clinch may have to wait a week. 91% of you thought they'd make the playoffs and it would take an epic collapse for them not to.

4. New England Patriots. 8-5

They can't beat a good team which may be a good thing for the Pats since they have mediocre Buffalo, Jacksonville and Houston still left on the schedule. The bad thing? Only one home game since the Pats are 7-0 at home and an abysmal 1-5 on the road (and their one "road" win was in London against Tampa Bay). This team seems like it will make the playoffs, but if it doesn't win the division, they're not winning a game since this team is bad against good teams and bad on the road. 91% of you felt they'd make the playoffs, but even after a win, their chances aren't as good as they should be.

5. Denver Broncos. 8-5

They've made life easy for themselves by getting to 8 wins, with Oakland and KC left on their schedule, they should have 10 which will be enough for a playoff spot in the AFC, though their 6-4 record in the AFC will hurt them if other teams run the table and hit the 10 win mark. 75% of you thought they'd make the playoffs and they've put themselves in good position to do so.

6. Jacksonville Jaguars. 7-6

The true colors for this team are shining through. The Jaguars have won four games by three points or less. The combined record of those four teams is 14-34. Not good. Jacksonville has Indy at home and then goes on the road to New England and Cleveland. This team is probably 8-8 at this point unless they can pull some upset wins. Only 16% of you thought they'd make the playoffs and you look correct at this point.

7. Baltimore Ravens. 7-6

Baltimore has risen from the dead and are in a great position to make the playoffs. They play Chicago at home and then go on the road to struggling Pittsburgh and Oakland. If Baltimore does not make the playoffs at this point, it would be a huge disappointment. They should run the table and end up with 10 wins, but at the least, have 9 wins and have a good shot at that last playoff spot due to a good conference record. 41% of NYaT readers voted them as a playoff team and that looks like a greater possibility now.

8. Miami Dolphins. 7-6

Miami has a good chance to sneak into the playoffs again. They go to Tennessee and then close with Houston and Pittsburgh at home. They need Ricky Williams to hold on to the ball and carry this team on his back. Can he do it? Debatable. But if he can, this team has a chance of maybe sneaking away with the division as well. 16% thought they'd make the playoffs and I think that % may increase slightly in the new poll

9. New York Jets. 7-6

The Jets keep on hanging around. If Mark Sanchez can get healthy and stay away from mistakes, they have a chance...but does anyone really see that happening? The Jets play Atlanta, at Indy and Cincy in the last game at the Meadowlands. If they can beat Atlanta this week, they might get favorable situations in their last two games against teams resting starters. I don't think Indy will let up, though. The Jets have hurt themselves going 0-2 against Miami and that may bite them come tiebreaker time. Only 8% of you thought they'd make the playoffs and the Jets just keep on hanging around and defying odds.

10. 11. 12. Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Houston.
I'll just group them together since none of them should make the playoffs. Pittsburgh has just collapsed and have lost too many games to bad teams this season. Tennessee has too little, too late after a dreadful start but has something to build on for next season. And Houston always seems to play best when it counts least...so it's no surprise they're playing well now.

New poll is up on the right, I'm assuming the Colts, Bolts and Bengals are in so tell me who will be joining them.

Hot Stove Coal: All About Rule 5

The last time the Yankees had the first pick in a draft (any draft) they selected a pitcher named Brien Taylor. Let's just say Taylor ended up being the arm that changed the Major League [Rule 4] draft. Well the Yankees once again had [rights to] the first pick yesterday in the Rule 5 draft. Who they were going to take was a secret for many days, and in the end the pick surprised many. Did the Yankees do well? Let's take a look.

First off, let me say that it's rare that team finds a real gem in the Rule 5 draft, but it does happen. Johan Santana, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, and Shane Victorino were all Rule 5 selections (and Victorino was actually selected twice). The key to the Rule 5 draft is to find a guy you have a spot for on your roster and find a way to keep him there the whole year. The Yankees usually don't have that type of spot and that's why the only pick they've made in the Major League portion of the Rule 5 draft since 1997 was Josh Phelps, who besides one memorable home run against Joe Borowski, wasn't all that memorable.

Let's just say that leading up to the draft, no one saw this pick coming. MLB.com listed 20 potential draft choices and none of them were the guy the Yankees took. Pending Pinstripes thought the Yankees would pick a pitcher after trading Ian Kennedy, Brian Bruney and Phil Coke. LoHud's Chad Jennings talked about the popular rumor that the Yankees would get back their own exposed Rule 5 player, LHP Zach Kroenke, but had a few other possibilities as well. River Avenue Blues listed some candidates as well as did IIATMS. But in the end, the Yankees took none of the guys on any of those lists.

As NYP's Joel Sherman first revealed 17 minutes before the draft, the Yankees selected 6'3", 235 lbs, former Carolina Hurricaines draft pick, and right-handed hitting OF Jamie Hoffmann. Baseball America has a little more:

Hoffman has major league experience and tools, and at 25, he's still got room to improve. He hit .291/.390/.466 between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Albuquerque, and went 4-for-22 with a homer in 14 big league games. He's a career .285/.357/.407 hitter in 2,428 at-bats since singing as a nondrafted free agent in August, 2003.

"He's a big, physical outfielder with big league experience," said Yankees pro scouting director Billy Eppler. "Our scouts saw some good things in him, including good defensive ability and a good arm. He runs well for his size, we've got him as a 55 runner at 6-foot-3, 235. Kevin Long, our hitting coordinator, looked at him on video and thinks there's a foundation there hitting-wise."

Now let's hope that Kevin Long didn't add that he can fix his swing in 15 minutes a la Rick Peterson talking about Victor Zambrano with the Mets. But it seems like there is a good background there. Chad Jennings has a bigger background on him including some interesting facts about why he was available. Pending Pinstripes has some details on Hoffmann (and some more here). River Avenue Blues does a prospect profile and The Times-Tribune has some YouTube Video for him.

So where does Hoffmann fit in with the Yankees? Well, he was great against left-handed pitching last year and can be seen as the right-handed caddy for Curtis Granderson, a player they can obtain for that role without giving up prospects or signing a guy to a lot of money. Hoffmann is also a good defensive player who will compete for a backup OF role with Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera and give the Yankees the option of trading either one of their incumbent CFs for a more valuable prospect (even though Baseball Analysts ridiculously thinks that Brett Garnder shouldn't be an employed Major League player). And if Hoffmann doesn't work out? The Yankees' investment is minimal.

Now many were disappointed with this pick for the Yankees. The Yankees lost 5 pitchers this week--Bruney, Coke, Kennedy, as well as Kroenke and Kanekoa Texeira in the Rule 5 draft (though Texeira may be returned as U.S.S. Mariner surmises)--and many thought they'd select a pitcher to replace them. Others thought they should shoot for the moon and take a player with great upside. But with the fact the player picked has to stick on the Major League Roster, and with the knowledge that the Yankees don't usually carry around extra guys on the roster who need time to develop, this was a good, safe pick for the Yankees. And the best part in my mind about Hoffmann is that he's still developing and has a chance to be much more than he's shown due to his early career being split between hockey and baseball. I'm sure the Yankees are curious to see how he develops concentrating full-time on baseball. At the worst, they return Hoffmann to the Dodgers. At the best, they found themselves a good, cheap backup OF who should be an important player on the 2010 Yankees.

Trivia Thursday: Granderson Edition

I realized I forgot my Trivia Tuesday so we'll just do it today. This one comes from Buster Olney's blog (don't cheat and look up the answer):

From Mark Simon, a Yankees/Curtis Granderson-related trivia question: In 2009, Granderson had the only 30 HR/20 SB season in Tigers history. On the other hand, four different Yankees have done it: Alex Rodriguez (three times) and Alfonso Soriano (two times) are two of them. The other two are outfielders with famous names ... Can you name them?

Put your answer in the comments below. I'll reveal the correct answer later.

Hot Stove Coal: My Take on the Granderson Deal

Work got busy yesterday so I didn't get a chance to post about the three-way deal that netted the Yankees Curtis Granderson. I figured I'd break down my thoughts on the deal:

A few points (the picture on the right from Chad Jennings of LoHud shows that Granderson does wear #28 as the Yankees go after World Series #28):

-My initial reaction about the Granderson rumor a few weeks back was that the Yankees tread carefully, but trended on the negative. My problem was that Granderson comes with some negatives (which LoHud's Sam Borden helps to debunk). That said, my mind changed throughout the day. Tyler Kepner seemed to have the same thoughts. I give this deal an A-/B+ right now.

-The reason I say right now is that the Yankees still need--as Keith Law wrote on ESPN--a right-handed caddy. I'm not saying that Granderson won't find a way to hit lefties (many have pointed out that Paul O'Neill did once he got to New York), but the Yankees could use a backup OF that's righthanded, especially if Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui come back. Reed Johnson, as Tyler Kepner tweeted, is a FA and would be a good fit. So would Rocco Baldelli.

-I am worried about Granderson having two down-trending years (though not as worried as NYBD is about Granderson's "average" in a very "average" article). But the Yankees acquired Nick Swisher under similar circumstances last off-season and he was great for them. Ben however pointed out that the Yankees gave up a lot less in that deal. Fair enough, but we pretty much know that Granderson is worth about 3.5-4 wins, even if he doesn't return to his status of 3 years ago.

-And that's because he's an above-average defensive and offensive centerfielder. The Yankees haven't had someone like him roaming center since Bernie Williams was in his prime--and Bernie was never good as Granderson defensively. That defense should help shore up a solid Yankees OF as they continue to get better defensively.

-As for the haul: Phil Coke was a second lefty in the bullpen and is pretty easily replaceable (maybe by Mike Dunn whose removal--Joel Sherman tweeted--was the key for the Yankees pulling the trigger) and Ian Kennedy is no longer a top prospect for the Yanks. Would he have been a useful 6th starter or top AAA arm? Maybe. But the guy threw one inning last year and supposedly has an ego problem (according to an old Pete Abraham post), so I don't have an issue letting him go. The one piece you cringe about giving up is Austin Jackson, an athletic OF who had become a jewel in the Yankee farm system. Trading him leaves the Yankees without any top non-catching position prospect. And while Jackson may become a good player, he wasn't going to be this year and Granderson will be better than him next year as well. I don't love parting with AJax, especially for a non-pitcher, but a prospect is just that: a prospect. And if you believe Jackson's ceiling is Curtis Granderson as The Girl Who Loved Andy Pettitte does, you need to get Curtis Granderson now on a win-now Yankees team.

-FanGraphs gives this deal an overly enthusiastic A+ for the Yankees. I usually take grades like that with a grain of salt, but FanGraphs is usually dead-on with these predictions and here is what Dave Cameron had to say:

From the Yankees perspective, this deal is almost too good to be true. Heading into his age 29 season, Granderson is a legitimate +4 win center fielder signed to a bargain contract for the next four years...and the Yankees are getting him for a variety pack of role players. He instantly makes their team better, giving them a legitimate all-star center fielder who should thrive in Yankee Stadium. For as much as the Yankees have a payroll advantage, they continue to win because Brian Cashman targets the right players. Granderson is a fantastic acquisition for them.

I have to say that this assessment made me feel a little better and Rob Neyer agrees with "his friends". Big League Stew likes this one for the Yankees as well. MLB.com looks at the prospects

-The big winner in this trade may end up being the Tigers. They get--as MLBTradeRumors and others point out--potentially 22 years of control, a few premium young players, and they were the ones who needed to make a move as The Detroit Free Press points out. That's pretty good, though the reason they got to this point--as Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports points out--is because of a bevy of bad decisions and trying to buy a title. Max Scherzer and Edwin Jackson are a wash in my book and Scherzer may end up being better (though I would be worried if I was the Tigers about why Arizona was so quick to dump him). Austin Jackson will step into their OF right away and the two lefties will give them power arms out of the bullpen. Danny Knobler of CBS Sports likes this trade a lot for the Tigers as does Keith Law, Frankie Piliere of AOL FanHouse and others.

-Arizona's role in this was curious (peer pressure?) but I think that Jackson and Kennedy will both pitch well in Arizona and the no-hit NL West. I just think they gave up a lot to get them, though The Arizona Republic likes this deal for the DBacks. With Jackson, Webb and Haren, the Diamondbacks have a front three to go against the duos on the other West squads of Lincecum-Cain and Kershaw-Billingsly. Kennedy needs to be a good #4 to make this trade more palatable.

-Via MLBTradeRumors: "Granderson is owed $5.5MM in 2010, $8.25MM in '11, and $10MM in '12, with a $13MM club option/$2MM buyout for '13". So it's $25.75MM for 3 years or $36.75MM for four years (plus award bonuses). That's reasonable. As IIATMS writes: "For plus defense in CF and 25-30 home runs, I don't think $8.5m AAV is a bad deal. Again, if he tanks, well..."

-This does not spell the end for Melky or Damon or anyone else. The Yankees still have moves to make to fill out their roster and River Avenue Blues gives a few thoughts of where the Yankees move next.. I don't think they're going with Melky in left and Juan Miranda as the DH. Though if the Yankees wanted to deal Melky, MLBTradeRumors points out "the Cubs are one possible suitor." Joel Sherman writes that this increases the Yankees leverage with Damon. This trade does seem to end the Miguel Cabrera-to-the-Red Sox rumors as Pete Abraham writes.

-This actually may be the best thing I heard about Granderson's numbers from Chad Jennings: "One thing to like about Granderson: He’s at his best when he’s pulling the ball. And managed to pull the ball roughly 50 percent of the time last season. And pulling the ball is a good thing for a left-handed hitter to do in Yankee Stadium." Yes it is. As long as he doesn't get too homer-happy at Yankee Stadium, he could have a bounceback year, especially since his last year may have been depressed by bad luck judging from his BAbip. River Avenue Blues and the Detroit Tiger Weblog go more in depth on this and say that the problem was that getting too pull-happy meant a lot of weak pop-ups the other way. Buster Olney also wrote that Granderson hit out of place as a lead-off hitter. If he's lower down in the Yankee lineup without the pressure of leading off, it may be best for the Yankees and Granderson. And Joel Sherman writes the Yankees know Granderson well, having scouted him the last month of the season when the Yankees thought they were playing the Tigers in the playoffs.

-And, lastly, I would be amiss if I didn't mention Granderson's "intangibles". He's supposedly good in the clubhouse and great in the community as Newsday's Wallace Matthews writes. He possesses a lot of Jeterian qualities as Jayson Stark writes. Now is he clutch, Joel Sherman wants to know?

Hopefully this all leads back to championship #28 with #28 roaming CF for the Yankees.

Ask a Doctor: Concussions and the NFL

Once in a while we get a special guest blog here at NYaT and today is one of those times. This one comes from Cynthia Brown, MD. Cynthia was formerly a practicing Neurologist for over 20 years at Fallon Clinic as well as President of the Medical Staff  at St. Vincent Hospital at Worcester Medical Center. She now works for an EBSCO subsidiary, DynaMed (from the website: DynaMed is a clinical reference tool created by physicians for physicians and other health care professionals for use primarily at the 'point-of-care'.); In her free time, Cynthia now lives in Ipswich, Massachusetts and is an active localvore, full-contact bird watcher, eco-traveler, rower, gardener, mother, and lover of old Jews telling jokes. We asked to her to give us a little background on concussions and her advice for the NFL as this is a hot topic right now. Here is what Cynthia had to say:
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The American Academy of Neurology Guidelines for the management of concussion in sports is in the process of revision, so the official date on this is 1997. The old guidelines were somewhat more lax than is current practice and allowed for players to return to the "contest" is they had their "bells rung" (AAN wording!).

One of the leading world authorities on this subject is Dr. Cantu who arrived at the grades of head injury. He and a committee recently published guidelines for returning to play which are somewhat non-committal.

In my practice, I did not allow an player to return to play for 1 week after a head injury, even without a loss of consciousness. A second incident meant they were out for a month. A loss of consciousness kept them out for at least 2 weeks to a month.

The Massachusetts Medical Society recommendations are based on the AAN guidelines:

The athlete should have no symptoms (subjective findings as expressed by the player such as headache, feeling groggy, or foggy) or signs (objective findings that are seen by another observer, such as the player moving clumsily or appearing stunned or dazed) of a concussion. Any amnesia (memory loss) is a critical warning sign. For example, you may notice the athlete repeatedly asking the same questions without remembering that he or she asked them, or without remembering the answers. If an athlete misses any of the
confusion/orientation or memory test questions, in addition to not returning to play, the player should seek emergency medical attention. He or she should not return to athletic activity for a minimum of five to seven days after all symptoms have disappeared and should be cleared first by a physician or certified athletic trainer. Rest is the only known method of treating concussions.

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I think that's a pretty definitive answer on how concussions should be handled. It will be interesting to see the next steps the NFL takes in this matter.

Hot Stove Coal: Yankee Rumors From Day 1

Well Pat Burrell didn't head to the Mets...or anywhere. And--as far as I know--Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson are still on the Tigers. So let's review a day of rumors and deals, shall we?

The Yankees did make one deal yesterday, trading Brian Bruney to the Washington Nationals for a player to be named later (the 'ole PTBNL) as Reuters writes (picture also from Reuters). Mark Feinsand was to the first to report via Twitter that the Yankees would be receiving Washington's Rule 5 draft pick (the first in the draft) as the PTBNL. Now first I have to say I have no clue why the Nats would make this deal. Brian Bruney is about to become ~$2MM relief pitcher with zero control. You get sucked in with Bruney with the K/9 and sometimes a low ERA but his walk rate is insane which means that pairing him up with Mike MacDougal should do wonders for the Nats bullpen. Here was Bruney's very up-and-down four years in New York courtesy of Baseball-Reference (his 2008 was actually very good):



Why I'm so surprised that the Nats really did this is that of all teams, the Nationals have a spot on their roster to store a Rule 5 player all season long as Rob Neyer writes. The Rule 5 draft requires that player taken to stay on your Major League roster all season long or else they need to be returned to their former team. The Yankees actually got some of their own players back last season because of this reason. The Nationals, with about 4 players that should be above AAA, have plenty of room to do this. The Yankees, usually do not. Obviously the Yankees have a player in mind to take (or want to parlay this pick into another player via trade) but most are curious as to who the heck that is, especially since the non-40-men to excel during the Arizona Fall League were mostly Yankees. One guess via Twitter: @leokitty Only one that jumps out at me is Yohan Pino, but I am excited to be surprised. I am excited to be surprised as well and this seems like another smart move by Brian Cashman who can now take the $2MM owed to Bruney and reallocate. With many power arms on the 40-man, the Yankees could surely afford to let the unreliable Bruney hit the road.

As for deals, they didn't make...well...there was plenty of them. River Avenue Blues describes the evolution of a rumor which seems to run the gamut from "overheard in the lobby" to "made up".

Here's how something like this develops. The Yankees "checked in" on Kelvim Escobar. Well, they should. He has an arm and he was a good pitcher in the past. Why wouldn't they "check in". That doesn't mean they're close to getting him or even interested. They are doing their due diligence. The Yankees also checked in on Mark DeRosa and Jason Marquis. And Andy Pettitte either rejected a one-year deal from the Yankees or hasn't received one yet. It's pretty out there right now.

That being said, there was one true rumored deal out there that stuck around all night. From Ken Rosenthal via MLBTradeRumors: "The deal would send Curtis Granderson to the Yanks, along with a prospect or two from the D'Backs. Arizona would obtain Edwin Jackson from the Tigers and Ian Kennedy from the Yankees. The Tigers would obtain Max Scherzer from the D'Backs and Austin Jackson, Phil Coke and Michael Dunn from the Yanks." But that deal has fizzled because the Yankees and the Tigers both don't like their return from the deal. The Tigers backed down from wanting Phil Hughes and Austin Jackson from the Yankees for Curtis Granderson, but they still don't like their haul from this deal. I think that the Yankees need to be cautious with Granderson because of his LHP struggles, but I think that they also need to realize that Austin Jackson may never even develop into what Granderson is now. The other prospects the Yankees are giving up in the deal are pretty minor.

Now there's some thought involved that the Yankees are really just getting involved in the Granderson talks to drive down the price of Johnny Damon as Joel Sherman writes. But, truly, the Yankees could sign Damon and trade for Granderson and still have plenty of room for both. I wrote about Granderson earlier. As River Avenue Blues wrote they would welcome Granderson and say goodbye to Jackson or they would be OK with keeping AJax and letting Granderson go to the Cubs or some other team. IIATMS says that unless Jackson is going to be used to get a top-flight starting pitcher, he can be used in a deal like this, and I have to agree with that as well.

It will be interesting to see what ends up happening, but if Day 1 is any indication, it will be quite exciting.