Hot Stove Coal: Yankees Tender or Non-Tender

One way to judge how much the economy is truly affecting the baseball world will be the number of players that are non-tendered. MLBTradeRumors explains the process very well:

December 12th marks baseball's non-tender deadline. That's when teams decide whether to offer a contract to the unsigned players on their 40-man roster. Players not tendered a contract become free agents... It is a chance for certain players to reach free agency without putting in the typical six years of service time. Past non-tenders include David Ortiz, Jayson Werth, Rick Ankiel, Ryan Franklin, David Eckstein, and Chad Durbin. Last year Ty Wigginton, Jonny Gomes, Willy Taveras, and Takashi Saito were among those cut loose. Usually at least a few useful guys are unearthed and a handful sign for more than a million bucks.

There you have it. Some of the non-tender candidates this year may be guys who would make too much money had they been offered arbitration, but may make a lot more than "a million bucks" on the free agent market and which a team may try to trade before non-tendering (a guy like Dan Uggla comes to mind). I've gone through the MLBTradeRumors list of non-tender candidates as well as my own list and will give my opinion as to whether the Yankees should tender or non-tender. Even though the Yankees spend more than any team, they didn't buy a World Series last year; they just made a lot of smart decisions. Here are some that I feel they should make.

Freddy Guzman and Josh Towers - Already free agents to clear two spots on the 40-man roster. I just wanted to list these two as guys who could both possibly return on minor-league deals.

Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Phil Coke and Alfredo Aceves - All no-brainers as these guys are important pieces to the puzzle and are cheap as "reserved" players without the experience necessary to be eligible for arbitration. My vote: tender 'em all.

Brian Bruney - I think many thought Bruney had thrown his last pitch in Pinstripes during the regular season but was then added to the World Series roster. Bruney looked like the most effective member out of the Yankees bullpen last year until he got hurt and return ineffective. Bruney was on MLBTradeRumors list of non-tender candidates because of "his sore elbow and high walk rate" but they point out that Joel Sherman tweeted that it looks like Bruney will be offered arbitration. I think this is one time the Yankees really want to rethink that decision and let Bruney go. The Yankees have plenty of live bullpen arms in David Robertson, Phil Coke, Damaso Marte, and Alfredo Aceves (as well as other arms down on the farm) that I think they can let Bruney go and use that money (probably around $1.5 million) towards a more trustworthy player. Bruney's numbers the past two seasons have been very good peripherally (8-0 with a 2.95 ERA and 8.5 K/9), but a look underneath the hood reveals that he only pitched 73.1 innings combined over the two years due to injuries, and had a .390 OBP against after returning from injury last season. My vote: non-tender.

Chad Gaudin - I think that Gaudin is definitely back with the Yankees next season. An under-the-radar pickup for the Yankees last season, the Yankees were 8-3 in games he pitched, and a very impressive 6-0 in games he started. Gaudin's splits favor him against righties so he might be better as a righty specialist out of the bullpen, but I think a hybrid role of long-relief, spot starts and right handed reliever is a good place for Gaudin to fit in next year with the Yankees. My vote: tender

Sergio Mitre - I'm torn on Mitre. On one hand you have a guy who is coming back from injury and should be better next season. And on the other hand you have the fact that better is a relative term and may not even equal good. Joel Sherman says that the Yankees intend to keep Sergio Mitre, but may decline his $1.25 million option on Thursday. Then the Yankees can either offer Mitre arbitration or try to sign him to a contract. I think they should decline his option, decline arbitration and work to resign him for a minimum deal. Mitre was 3-3 with a 6.79 ERA with pretty horrible peripheral numbers. But if the Yankees can find a way to bring him back for less than $1.25 million, he may be a valuable depth asset. A team can never have too much pitching and the Yankees were 5-4 in Mitre's starts meaning he wasn't a dealbreaker for the most part. But when he was bad, he was really bad: in those 4 losses, he gave up a total of 28 runs and never pitched more than 5 innings. I wouldn't mind having Mitre back, but not for $1.25 million. My vote: non-tender.

Chien-Ming Wang - Hey, remember Chien-Ming Wang? This is a tough one only for sentimentality reasons. Wang was one of the best pitchers in baseball until he got hurt two years ago running the bases. Since, he hasn't been the same pitcher. He was God-awful last season and looks to be headed under the knife. As an arbitration eligible player, Wang would make about $5 million for the Yankees (his minimum salary if they offer him arbitration is around $4 million). There's no way the Yankees could do that even if Wang would be healthy by the start of the season. Now he may not pitch until mid-April at the earliest and would be almost two years removed from being an effective major-league pitcher. I would not mind, however, the Yankees declining arbitration but offering Wang a low-base, incentive-laden contract. He may even be amenable to it, as Joel Sherman writes, because Wang could make a lot of money back in Taiwan because of his association with the Yankees. The Yankees have seen what happens when his 95 MPH sinker goes bad, but I think the Yankees can take a low bet (like the Red Sox did on John Smoltz/Brad Penny last year) that Wang can find it again and be that 19-win pitcher he was for them in the past. My vote: non-tender.

Edwar Ramirez - Not an important piece, but a guy you could see being let go (especially if the Yankees need an extra spot on the 40-man roster to protect players from the Rule 5 draft). Ramirez, despite having what is described as a "Bugs Bunny changeup" is not a good pitcher. Ramirez has had his K/9 go from 13.3 to 10.2 to 9.0, which is still pretty impressive, but not even close to acceptable when you consider his BB/9 ratio this past season was 7.4 BB/9 (yikes!). Now Ramirez is useful as a 13th/14th arm that can be shuttled between Scranton and New York. Despite having a changeup that is supposed to neutralized lefties, he is a better career pitcher against righties except this past season where he sucked against almost everyone. He is a "reserved" player so he is not arbitration eligible. For that reason, I see the Yankees bringing him back as long as they don't need the roster space (although he really does look ridiculous as you can see on the right). My vote: tender.

Shelly Duncan - The potential is there. The 2010 CHONE Projections have him at .257/.340/.512 with 24 HR and 74 RBI. I think that's being very aggressive and Pending Pinstripes agrees as well calling the projection "pretty nutty". Do the Yankees bring him back or do they let him go? At some point, I think the Yankees need to entertain just trading him or letting him go. A team like the Mets (a platoon with Delgado at 1B/RF pop/bench bat) or Giants could certainly use a cheap player like him. I still think the Yankees should bring him up and give him a chance (especially if they let Matsui go and leave the DH spot open), but if they didn't give him a chance last year after a monster minor league season, I don't know if he'll ever get the chance. Instead of spending $10-12 million on a LF or DH, maybe a cheap Duncan is the answer as Baseball Projection suggests and maybe they can spend that extra money on a pitcher like John Lackey. The problem is that Juan Miranda may have moved past him on the depth charts. My guess is that they'll non-tender him but my vote is: tender.

Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, Francisco Cervelli and Ramiro Pena - The only players the Yankees really need to make a choice on should all not only be coming back, but all should be on the Opening Day Major League roster. Melky is going to be the most expensive one of the group since he's arbitration eligible, but I think he's worth it. Despite the fact that he's probably not an everyday player, he's still young and, at worst, tradeable. The other players should be useful, cheap bench players for the Yankees next season (especially with Cervelli taking over for Jose Molina). My vote: tender across the board.

What are your thoughts? Who would you like to see back?