Hot Stove Coal: Granderson and Lackey vs. Perception and Reality

As we move into the baseball offseason, I will start a new segment called "Hot Stove Coal" where we heat up the hot stove with rumors, innuendos, factoids, and just general meandering thoughts. The first one has to do with the two names most prominently brought up in the Yankees rumor mill over the past two days: John Lackey and Curtis Granderson. Although both seem like great players who would be a solid fit, let's see if perception equals reality.

Curtis Granderson seems like a nice player. In 2006, he started in centerfield for the Detroit Tigers and they went to the World Series. In 2007, he hit 23 triples to go along with 38 2B,  26 SB, 23 HR, with nice slashes of .302/.361/.552 and came in 10th in the MVP voting. That same year Granderson and Jimmy Rollins became only the third and forth players to go 20-20-20-20 in those categories, the last one to do it before them being Willy Mays. So the comparisons started to the great CF of all-time. And he had the personality to back it up being well-spoken, humble and willing to speak with the media and spend time giving back. He even won "Man of the Year" (photo on the right from that article)

Well Granderson's star has fallen a bit since 2007. His 2007 was helped by a BAbip of .362 and it hasn't been as good since. Granderson went from a .913 OPS in 2007 to a .858 OPS in 2008 to a .780 OPS in 2009. His runs scored dropped from 122 to 112 to 91. Although he hit 30 HR this season, his XBH totals have dropped from 84 in 2007 to 61 the past two years. And his speed is deceiving as he--like Bernie Williams--is fast without great base stealing skills.

Joel Sherman found out that Granderson (owed $25.75 million the next three seasons with a $13 million club option or $2 million buyout for 2013) may now be on the trade block because of the financial mess that Detroit and the Tigers may be in and the Yankees seem like a perfect trade partner. But Keith Law tells the harsh reality that this guy might not be an everyday player:

"The problem with Granderson is that he's become a platoon player but is still perceived as an everyday player. Granderson hit just .183/.245/.239 against LHP this year, the second time in three years he failed to crack even a .500 OPS against southpaws. So while he's strong against right-handed pitchers and plays above-average defense, a team acquiring him needs to consider a right-handed-hitting platoon mate, and be sure that they don't overpay expecting him to be an everyday guy."

This may surely be a case of where perception trumps reality. Now it could be bad luck on Granderson's behalf as River Avenue Blues points out: "Granderson’s BABIP stands out as a reason for his dip in production. After posting marks of .362 in 2007 and .317 in 2008, he fell all the way to .276 in 2009." But will he be able to turn it back around? Even in a down year Granderson was a valuable player for the Tigers. But what if he doesn't bounce back? And if the Yankees would have to surrender a top prospect such as Austin Jackson in the deal, would it be worth it? I think the Yankees may be better off sticking with in-house options if the price in players gets too high.

I also think the Yankees need to do the same with John Lackey. Despite his reputation as a "bulldog" and a "workhorse", Lackey has missed quite a bit of time in recent years with injuries. After pitching in exactly 33 games each year from 2003-2007, he pitched in only 24 games last season, and, after missing the beginning of the 2009 season with injury, pitched in only 27 this year. Now the Yankees got away with one injury-free season from A.J. Burnett, but are they willing to have two guys under contract for half a decade who have missed as much time as those two?

And despite his playoff success in the Angels World Series run of 2002 (Lackey's rookie season), since then Lackey is only 1-4. He's only 2-5 in Fenway in his career (in the regular season) with a 5.75 ERA and 3-7 with a 5.25 ERA overall against the Red Sox. That doesn't exactly bode well for the Yankees. Especially if Lackey wants a lot more than Burnett. I like John Lackey a lot, but I'm not sure he's worth a lot more than Burnett is. River Avenue Blues urges patience when considering John Lackey and recommends passing on the free agent starter. 

That being said, I'd take Granderson and/or Lackey in Pinstripes at the right price. I would hesitate trading a young Jackson in a package for Granderson and I would decline a Melky and Cano for Granderson swap (as I heard mentioned today). For Lackey, I'd wait and see what the market does. If Texas' ownership situation continues to be up in the air and other teams can't afford to add his salary to the payroll, Lackey's salary demands may move closer to where Burnett ended up and make him an attractive pickup for the Yankees. I just think the Yankees (and their fans) need to understand that perception with these two may not be reality and the Yankees should take some caution before they try to acquire either one.