Jon Heyman desribes the Yankees off-season plans: "They won't repeat last year's outlay of $423.5 million for three years. But they're always a threat to buy someone good. Looking for pitching. Will pursue Lackey plus trade possibilities Roy Halladay and Derek Lowe." John Lackey is the only person that writers can even describe as a "bona fide ace" on the free agent market and he comes with question marks about his ability to pitch against Boston and his ability to stay healthy (I wrote about him here). But after Lackey there is a big drop in quality until you get to the Randy Wolf's of the world. The Yankees could bring back Andy Pettitte and try to fill the final two spots of their rotation with some combination of Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Alfredo Aceves, Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin. Or they could look to the trade market.
The Yankees decided to pass up on Lowe and sign Burnett in the off-season and the decision, at least for one year, proved to be the correct one. Lowe was really good through his first 10 starts, going 6-2 with a 3.45 ERA and holding opponents to a .628 OPS against. But things didn't go as well for him after that. He ended up giving up a league high 232 hits and his 10.7 H/9 and 1.515 WHIP were both second-highest in his career and his walks and strikeouts ratios were the worst since he pitched in the American League. Lowe is also in the middle of a long-term deal and will turn 37 next season. Jon Heyman writes: The Yankees could have some interest in Lowe, "but not at $16 million a year for three years," one person familiar with their thinking said.
Although the price could be low (no pun indended) in terms of players, and the Braves may kick in some cash to get rid of him with the starting pitching surplus they currently have, I think this is a definite "pass" for the Yankees. Lowe is said to have been tough against the AL East, but he is 8-11 with a 6.41 ERA and 1.766 WHIP against the Yankees in his career and the only AL East team he's actually pitched well against is the Rays---but most of those starts were back when they were the cellar-dwellers. And he had a 6.65 ERA down the stretch last year, leading to a tough market for Lowe according to Ken Rosenthal. Pass.
Halladay is a more intriguing option. As Jon Heyman explains, the Yankees pursued him during the 2009 season but balked on sending Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes in the same deal for him. It ends up that Toronto may never have traded him in the same division last season, but looking at the possibility they might lose him for nothing in a year, they seem to be reconsidering that. Halladay pitched well against the Red Sox in 2009, going 2-2 but with a 2.79 ERA and 2 CG including one shutout. His WHIP against them was 1.000, with 8.1 SO/9 and 5.20 SO/BB. Halladay's overall numbers aren't overly stunning but he had a great season last year once again leading the AL in CG, SHO, and SO/BB while also leading the league this past year in BB/9. And his season until July 24th (when the team-imposed deadline passed for him to be traded) was spectacular in every respect: he was 11-3 with a 2.62 ERA, 6.15 SO/BB, and a .614 OPS against. He didn't falter too much down the stretch, but looked like he was upset for a while with the decision not to trade him.
So here's the Yankees dilemma: do they trade prospects for one season of Roy Halladay and a window to discuss a contract extension? I think they need to entertain the thought. The Yankees could part with either Joba or Hughes in the deal as a starting point, but would have to pay twice for Halladay in players and money. Although the Yankees were unwilling to do this a few years ago to get Santana (and seem to be following the same methodology when pursuing Carl Crawford according to Ken Rosenthal), the prospect of getting Halladay (who may I think is better than Santana) and keeping him away from Boston may be enough to put them over the top.
Unfortunately, I think the Yankees need to stay out of this in the end as well, or at least tread cautiously. They have stuck to a really good gameplan of waiting until pitchers hit the free agent market instead of double paying them in players and money. If they can trade Halladay straight up for a Hughes or a Joba, I'd do it, but if you're talking about adding other prospects like Austin Jackson or Jesus Montero, I may stop them there. New York Baseball Digest says that Joba or Hughes shouldn't get in the way of making a deal. The Yankees have a need to continue to get better pitching, but they also have been doing a good job of getting younger and not trading away prospects. As River Avenue Blues explains: [The Yankees] have their top two pitchers locked up for four and six more years, and they also have a number of promising young arms to complement them. Adding Halladay would be a good move for any team, but considering the price they’d have to pay, they might opt to stick with their guys and wait to see if Halladay reaches free agency next winter.
Halladay will be pursued by the Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, Mets, Angels, Rangers and a dozen other teams (as well as the prospect he could stay with the Blue Jays). As Chad Jennings says, it would be crazy not to kick the tires on Halladay. But, as much as I would love to have Halladay in Pinstrpes, I'm not sure the Yankees want to give up the prospects it will take to join that race.
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