The weather has gotten hot, we’re about to hit September and the stretch drive to the playoffs are here. This weekend features a few huge matchups to keep an eye on:
1. San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies. This is a 4-game tilt that could help clear up the playoff picture or muddy it even more. The Rockies are 7-3 in their last 10 games and leading the Wild Card race, but only 3.5 back of the Dodgers in the NL West. The Giants are right there with them, 5.5 back of Los Angeles, and only 2 games back in the Wild Card race. So if the Giants win 3 out of 4, they’re all tied up atop the Wild Card lead. As Tim Kurkjian said, the key to this series is the Giants offense, ranked 27th in baseball. There’s only one plus hitter in the entire Giants lineup (Pablo Sandoval) who is a plus hitter and the acquisitions of Freddy Sanchez (.697 OPS) and Ryan Garko (.609 OPS) haven’t helped the cause at all. According to Baseball-Reference, the Giants have played in 120 games and have used 113 different batting orders (97 when you don’t include the pitcher). That’s crazy. The Mets, who have been ravaged by injuries, have only used 90 total batting orders when you don’t include the pitcher. The Giants pitching has been great (although Matt Cain will not go in this series), but the Rockies pitching has been underrated all season. Best pitching matchup: Sunday when my Cy Young pick for this year, Tim Lincecum, goes up against the very impressive Ubaldo Jimenez (3.41 ERA), who has been successful keeping the ball in the park this season (.433 HR/9, 4th in the NL). Other players to keep an eye on: Carlos Gonzalez for Colorado who came over from Oakland in the Matt Holliday deal and has taken over at leadoff for the Rockies with a .289/.350/.547 line, 8 HR and 8 SB in 180 plate appearances. Pablo Sandoval for the Giants who is probably one of the more underrated hitters in baseball with a .327/.377/.545 line, despite no protection in the lineup—meaning the Rockies will probably pitch around him whenever possible (he’s gotten 8 intentional walks so far). But when they do, Sandoval is 2nd in average, 5th in hits, 10th in total bases, 3rd in doubles, 10th in runs created, and 8th in XBH.
2. New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox. Yeah, it’s on again. The Yankees can almost end the AL East race by winning 2 out of 3, and they have their pitching staff set up for it with Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett and CC Sabathia set to throw, while the Red Sox are going to go with Brad Penny, Junichi Tazawa, and Josh Beckett. From ESPN Stats & Information on Friday’s starter, Andy Pettitte: “Pettitte has been a big part of the Yankees' hot stretch, sporting a 1.38 ERA over his past four starts and allowing just one home run since the All-Star break. Pettitte has been incredibly efficient lately, retiring the side in 61 percent of his innings pitched and allowing only 14 percent of runners to score.” As Tyler Kepner and River Ave Blues wrote, the Yankees still have something to prove in Boston. Let’s not forget that the Yankees are still 4-8 against the Red Sox this season and haven’t won a game in Boston yet. Despite that, Boston is 6.5 back in the AL East, but lead the Wild Card by 1 game over Texas. Jon Heyman points that Boston is in a surprise fight for the playoffs, a spot they didn’t figure to be in a few months back. Boston’s starting to heat up a bit, too having won 7 out of 10 since they faced the Yankees in Boston Massacre 2009 in the Bronx. Best pitching matchup: No doubt about this one: Beckett vs. Sabathia on Sunday night. They’re tied for the league lead in wins and have shown over the past month that they are the respective aces of their teams. CC leads the league in innings pitched and is in the top 10 in SO, WHIP, CG, ERA and W%. Beckett leads the league in W% and is in the top 10 in K, WHIP, CG, IP, and ERA. This should be a good one. Others players to keep an eye on: Alex Rodriguez is mired in a huge slump. He hasn’t been hitting for power and is now not hitting at all with a .200 average and one RBI in his last 8 games. He was a big part of their series against Boston in the Bronx…let’s see how he does when they’re booing him. The Yankees bullpen will also be tested this weekend and we’ll see how the remade corps responds to the hostile environment. Junichi Tazawa is starting Saturday for Boston. The last time he faced the Yankees, A-Rod hit a shot deep into the night’s sky to win the 15-inning classic. Since then, he’s had two iffy starts, including his last against Texas where he allowed 10 hits, 3 walks, and 2 HR in 5 IP with no Ks. There’s a lot of pressure on the young man from Japan.
3. Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays. Wild Card implications galore here. Both will be rooting for the Yankees to take care of Boston, but both need to take care of their own down in Tampa. Texas trails Boston by only a game, while the Rays are 4 back. How about this role reversal? The Rays have scored more runs than the Rangers but the Rangers have a better team ERA than the Rays. Both the Rays and the Rangers have losing records on the road this year while Tampa is 20 games over .500 at home. I keep on thinking that Tampa should be better than they are, especially with their infield of Evan Longoria (MVP candidate), Carlos Pena (leads league in HR), Jason Bartlett (7th in AL in OPS), and Ben Zobrist (2nd most valuable player in league according to FanGraphs). With Longoria, Bartlett, Zobrist and Carl Crawford, the Rays have 4 out of the 10 most valuable AL hitters according to FanGraphs. The problem has been pitching. Texas has surprised there and the Rays will get through the series without having to face their ace, Kevin Millwood. Best pitching matchup: Scott Feldman goes for the Rangers against the young and talented David Price. Feldman is the only Texas starter to reach double digit wins with a 12-4 record to go along with a 4.06 ERA. The key for price is limiting the base runners: he’s giving up over a hit an inning and 4.4 BB/9 which is way too high. He’s won 3 out of his last 4 starts so maybe he’s starting to piece it together. Other players to keep an eye on: If Ben Zobrist has a huge stretch run and gets the Rays into the playoffs, he’ll get a bunch of people on his MVP bandwagon. The guy has been great all season, playing multiple positions for the Rays and hitting and fielding well wherever they’ve played him. Also, Matt Garza hasn’t won a game for the Rays in almost a month. Andruw Jones is making a case for Comeback Player of the Year, but has struggled so far in August (.175/.283/.225). The Rangers can use him stepping up. Also Ivan Rodriguez was 3-4 in his first game back with Texas and it’ll be interesting to see if he can play himself into another contract for next season. He’s been a big help for teams like the Marlins in 2003 and the Tigers in 2006 in getting their teams to the World Series.
4. Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers. This series started last night with Russell Martin leading the Dodgers over the Cubs. Martin’s grand slam was a much needed boost not only for the struggling catcher, but also for a Dodgers team in much need of a jolt. The Dodgers looked they had an insurmountable lead in the NL West but that has dwindled recently due to their play as of late. LA is 16-18 since the All-Star break and 8-11 in August. The Cubs, though, have a great deal of troubles of their own. They’ve only won 4 games in their last 14 and now train the St. Louis Cardinals by 7 games in the NL Central. That also leaves Chicago 6 back of the Wild Card. If the Cubs don’t begin to turn it around soon, their season could be quickly over. And that’s tough to swallow for a team that looked like NL favorites coming in to this season. The Dodgers are desperate for pitching so they signed clubhouse cancer, Vincente Padilla to be their 5th starter. The Dodgers still have the NL’s best record, but they need to start winning games again. The Cubs have been hurt by injuries (Aramis Ramirez et al), but most of their troubles have been because of subpar years from Geovany Soto, Mike Fontenot, Alfonso Soriano, and Kevin Gregg. Best pitching matchup: Ryan Dempster vs. Chad Billingsley on Sunday. Dempster came in 6th in the NL Cy Young voting last season and the Cubs need him to pitch like that again down the stretch. Billingsley was great in the first half (9-4, 3.38) but has not been good in the second half (3-2, 5.04), but he’s been very good in August so far (2-0, 1.59). Other players to keep an eye on: Who leads the Dodgers in HR, RBI, runs and OPS? It’s not Manny Ramirez or Matt Kemp. It’s Andre Eithier. Milton Bradley looked like he was going to be a bust for the Cubs with a .627 OPS in April, but his second half OPS (.872) is 112 points higher than his first half.
5. Florida Marlins at Atlanta Braves. I don’t think either team is going to catch the Phillies in the NL East. But one team is going to have it much worse when this series is over because both trail by 6 ½ games now. They are, however, 4 back in the Wild Card race. Atlanta hasn’t lost a series since the first one they played this month against the Dodgers. Florida may not be as good as they’ve played. They’re run differential is +1 while the Braves are +59. This weekend will be a good test to see if the Marlins or Braves are actually for real. The Braves invested a lot of money in their pitching and the results have shown: only the Dodgers and Giants have given up less runs than the Braves. Nick Johnson has been a big pickup for the Marlins with a .308/.500/.462 line. The Marlins problem, though, has not been hitting, it’s been pitching. The Marlins have one plus starter right now: Josh Johnson and he’s not going in this series. Best pitching matchup: 22-year-old Tommy Hanson vs. 22-year-old Chris Volstad. I have a feeling these guys could be facing each other for years to come. Volstad has had a weird year. He was great in April, OK in May, bad in June, good in July and he’s been really bad so far in August. Hanson burst onto the scene this year (I guess the Braves were right for getting rid of Tom Glavine so that Hanson could have a spot) and has been brilliant with an 8-2 record to go along with a 3.05 ERA, less than a hit an inning, and less than 1 HR/9. He’s 3-0 with a 2.41 ERA so far in August. Other players to keep an eye on: Ricky Nolasco will start for the Marlins in this series. He was awful through May but turned it around big time in June and could be a very important pitcher for the Fish down the stretch. Also, Hanley Ramirez may have been in the MVP talk had it not been for the presence of one Albert Pujols, but that’s not to take anything away from another monster season for Ramirez. Javier Vazquez has had a great season for the Braves (2nd in SO, 4th in WHIP, 2.99 ERA) and will take the ball tonight. The key, though, for the Braves is Chipper Jones who has hit his most career home runs in August and has been a clutch September performer in the past.
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