Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Reviewing the NFC Playoff Picture

Earlier we reviewed the AFC Playoff Picture. Let's take a look now at what's going on in the NFC.

NFC:
1. New Orleans Saints. 13-0
The Saints have already clinched the division and a first-round bye. They can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win vs. Dallas and a Minnesota loss vs. Carolina. With games left against Tampa Bay and Carolina, it may just be a formality at this point for the home-field advantage, the real question is whether this team can go 16-0. If they beat Dallas this weekend, it looks like smooth sailing the rest of the way.

2. Minnesota Vikings. 11-2
Amazingly, all Minnesota has clinched so far is a playoff birth. The Vikings can clinch the division this week with a win or a Green Bay loss and they can clinch a first-round bye with a win and a Philly loss. Playing Carolina this week, they should at least wrap up the division and the Giants are hoping they can wrap up the bye before their Week 17 game.

3. Philadelphia Eagles. 9-4
The Eagles had a chance to lose a bad game to the Giants and have a chance of falling out of the playoff race. Now they're driving the playoff race and trying to wrap up the #4 seed. The Eagles can clinch a playoff spot with a win and either a Giants loss or a Dallas win. Yes, the Eagles, if they win, will be rooting for their enemies, the Dallas Cowboys, to do the same. Strange times. The Eagles play hot San Francisco and Denver at home before going to Dallas for Week 17. The Eagles will have to continue to play strong to win the division. 75% of NYaT voters thought that the Eagles would make the playoffs and that % should go up this week?

4. Arizona Cardinals. 8-5 / San Francisco 49ers. 6-7
I know it's weird to put them together but San Fran's only way into the playoffs is through the last divisional spot. The Cards lost a chance to clinch the division and lost Larry Fitzgerald last night against the 49ers. But I don't think they have much of a chance of losing the division. Arizona needs a win against lowly Detroit this next week and for San Francisco to lose to the Eagles in Philly to clinch the division. Even if somehow they don't do it this week, the Cards play St. Louis in Week 16...but the 49ers also get the Rams and Lions after Philly. So if San Fran can get through Philly, they should be 9-7 which means that Arizona needs to find a way to win a few games here. 75% of people voting in the poll thought the Cards would make it but 0% thought the 49ers would. I wonder if that % goes up this week?

5. Green Bay Packers. 9-4.
If this team didn't lose to lowly Tampa Bay, they'd be competing for the division. The Packers can clinch a playoff spot with a win vs. Pittsburgh and either a Dallas loss or a Giants loss. Their situation may be even more complicated than that. From CBS Sports' "Tiebreaker Expert" Joe Ferreira (see if you can keep up with this): "The GB situation is interesting.  Since GB beat DAL H2H and there is no other team that DAL can use from another division in a three-team tiebreaker, DAL would need to win the East division title to keep GB out.  If DAL loses this week to NO, the potential three-team tie for the division title among PHIL, DAL and NYG could stretch out to strength of victory if PHI win is against DEN.  However, it appears there is no way in that scenario that DAL could finish ahead of NYG, meaning DAL would have no chance to win the division, which means they could not clinch a playoff spot ahead of GB." With games against Pittsburgh, Seattle and Arizona, Green Bay has a chance of having a very good season and should give fits to whoever gets the #4 seed. Only 62% of you thought they'd make the playoffs in our last poll, but that number should be much higher this week.

6. Dallas Cowboys. 8-5.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say I think the Giants are going to make the playoffs over Dallas. Why? Dallas schedule the rest of the way is brutal and they may not have DeMarcus Ware for a little while which would put even more strain on a bad secondary. Dallas has games left at New Orleans, at Washington and then against Philly. Ouch. Dallas is only 3-3 on the road this season as well. This could be a 9-7 team. 87% of voters thought the 'Boys would make the playoffs but I don't know if anyone is as confident anymore.

7. New York Giants. 7-6.
This team doesn't deserve to make the playoffs. Their defensive coordinator should be fired. Their star defensive player (Osi Umenyora) looks like a shell of his former self and is just getting manhandled on the field. Their wide receivers can hold on to the ball. Their special teams coverage stinks. And their two kickers should be cut. Yet this team has a clear shot at the playoffs. The Giants remaining games are at Washington (who they beat in Week 1), at home vs. Carolina (who they should beat at 5-8), and end on the road at Minnesota (who should have everything locked up by then and be resting starters). If they win 3 games, they're not guaranteed a playoff spot, but Dallas would have to win out and Philly would have to win their first two and then lose against Dallas. The Giants controlled their own destiny and now need help. Their schedule may be the greatest help. And this is a Giants team that won the Super Bowl two years ago as a #6 seed that looked like it had a lot of holes coming into the playoffs and everyone expected would get bounced early.

8. Atlanta Falcons. 6-7.
I don't see a scenario where they get in, but it is mathematically possible and with games against the Jets, Buffalo and Tampa, it's likely they'll get to 9-7. But I don't know if 9-7 gets you in, especially not ahead of the Giants or Cowboys who hold the tiebreaker against the Falcons. And I don't know if they get to 9-7 if Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are still injured. Sorry Atlanta. Their 12% confidence should go down a lot this week.

What do you think? Who will join the Saints and the Vikings in the playoffs.

No comments:

Post a Comment