Quick Hits: FanGraphs Event, Yankee Bullpen, Mets, Cervelli, CC, Granderson, and Other Baseball Thoughts

It's time to play some catch-up on the blog. A little of a lot here on a Monday. Some quick hits for you:

- The FanGraphs Live event last Saturday in Manhattan was awesome. I thoroughly enjoyed the conference and the panels were all extremely engaging. Amanda Rykoff has a great review of the whole event at The OCD Chick, and Dave Cameron and Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs both have great recaps. A few observations/conclusions from the panel:

The FanGraphs live event was awesome

• I may be a nerd (Amanda did label this a "mini-dorkapalooza")
• Ben Kabak of River Ave Blues dislikes Francisco Cervelli as much on Twitter as he does in real life (and Jay Jaffe of Pinstriped Bible dishes out some dislike as well)
• Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues argues that the strength of the AL East pushes each team to get better
• Reporting on Twitter discourages analysis and makes it more about a personal brand
• The Wall Street Journal has a great formula for their sports section: smart, funny and analytical
• The game story is slowly leaving the papers (and with it, the need for the box score as well as Tim Kurkjian wrote on ESPN)
• Bloomberg Sports has an awesome fantasy sports tool that can even show video of Jeff Francouer drawing multiple walks
• Statistics are now for a wider audience than just nerds (though Tim Marchman of SI looks at the problems with defensive stats)
• The biggest myth in sports (according to one panelists) is that the pitcher stopping his windup mid-motion has led to a lot of injuries 
• I now own a FanGraphs t-shirt
• "Accept randomness"
• It was nice to finally meet in person people like Ben and Amanda who were, until now, just Twitter avatars and bylines on blog posts. This type of thing should occur more often.

- Joel Sherman of the New York Post asked today (re: the Yankees bullpen): "Do you believe in this group?" At one point the answer would most certainly have been no, but Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Boone Logan and Kerry Wood have joined together to form a nice "Bridge to Mariano". The Yankees bullpen in August is 1-1 (the one loss came from Mariano Rivera) with a 1.02 ERA in 35.1 innings and has a WHIP of 0.991. Since July 2nd, they've only allowed 16% of inherited runners to score (which was a bugaboo for a while with this team as they were at 30% at that point). With Andy Pettitte coming back (forcing Dustin Moseley back to the bullpen), and Alfredo Aceves and Damaso Marte on the mend, this is looking like a pretty good group. And despite his latest glitch, Mariano Rivera is pretty great/probably the greatest ever. The Yankees are 62-0 when leading after 8.

-CC Sabathia is getting less strikeouts as David Golebiewski of FanGraphs pointed out today and Dave Cameron pointed out last week. Here's my theory: from 2005 to 2010, Sabathia's thrown more innings than anyone in baseball. Maybe he's resting his arm a bit knowing he has plenty of years left to pitch in baseball. While strikeouts are the surest way to prevent outs, groundouts are usually a good way as well and they usually require less pitches. That's probably a good thing for someone who will have over 20,000 pitches in a 6-year span. Like Girardi told Chad Jennings of LoHud: "we don't want to wear the big guy down."

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A Quick Look Back At Some Preseason MLB Predictions

Back in April we all made our picks for the divisions and the major awards on the blog. Some were great and make us look downright prophetic. Some were awful and made us look downright pathetic. Let's take a look at the good and bad of our MLB preseason predictions:

Our predictions came on opening night but Yanks, Rays, and Sox are still close

AL East
Hits: Jay picked the Yankees to win the division and the Rays to win the Wild Card while Ari, Ben, and I all took the Yankees to win the division and the Red Sox as the Wild Card. Saying "While the Yankees could be undone by injuries, the Red Sox injury risks...are equally as present. What remains to be seen if Jonathan Papelbon has any ill effects from his implosion in last year's deciding game of the ALDS. The Fenway Faithful may not be too forgiving if he blows a game or two..." Writing that the Yankee Stadium crowd would not be too kind to Javy Vaquez if he starts the season off slowly.

Misses: I think we all underestimated Toronto. Jay saying "Joba Chamberlain will excel in his return to the bullpen."  Ben saying "Mark Teixeira will win the Triple Crown." Mostly all of our AL MVP predictions (Ari and Jay picked A-Rod, Ben picked Mark Teixeira, and Sarah picked Kevin Youkilis). My pick of Brian Matusz as Rookie of the Year

Too Close to Call: Ben saying "Tim Wakefield will start at least 20 games for the Red Sox." (he has 16 but is currently in the 'pen). My MVP prediction for Evan Longoria (still has a shot). Ari taking CC Sabathia and Sarah taking Jon Lester as Cy Young picks.

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The Night I Got Kicked Out of Yankee Stadium--and Snuck Back In

It's a story that I've told many times, but one that still seems to bring a smile and cringe to my face: the night I got kicked out of old Yankee Stadium. It's a slow day here and I figured it was a good time to finally put the story on the blog. So here it goes:

The stadium security policy got me kicked out of a game--but provided for a memorable night

It was April 18, 2002 and I headed down to the old ballpark in the Bronx with my buddies Jordan and Micah to see the Baltimore Orioles take on the New York Yankees. The Yankees had David Wells pitching vs. Scott Erickson who the Yankees had pretty much owned over his career (9-13 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.522 WHIP).

I had three seats for that night and we piled into Jordan's minivan and headed down to Yankee Stadium. I was about to have major surgery, I still hadn't decided on where I was going to college, I was nervous/excited/anxious about leaving home to go to school, and I felt like a night of baseball with my boys would help take my mind off what was going on in my life.

Backing up a bit, my invitation to Micah was in return for him inviting me to Opening Day. His father's law firm had acquired four season tickets for the 2002 season in the last row behind the visiting dugout in the Field Box section (I believe that was the name of the area--though @leokitty suggests Field Championship via Twitter which is probably right). We had played hooky, and took the train from Scarsdale on Opening Day to see them play the Devil Rays. I told him I would pay him back with a game and the April 18th game was the one. 

The game was a doozy. The Yankees led off the bottom of first with a Soriano single, then a steal of second and a hit by Nick Johnson put runners at the corners for Derek Jeter (no Bernie Williams that night so the make-shift lineup had Derek Jeter in the three-hole). Jeter singled home Soriano and then Johnson scored two batters later when Jorge Posada hit a line drive single to center.

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Thank Goodness Mariano Rivera Closes For My Team

The past 24 hours have been chock full of TGMRCFMT (or Thank Goodness Mariano Rivera Closes For My Team). To really appreciate him, you have to look at what other teams are dealing with:

TGMRCFMT (USA Today)

Mariano Rivera: We talked about this earlier today. Last night Rivera came on with a one-run lead and promptly gave up a triple. 3 players coming up with a chance to tie on an out. Tie game, right? Wrong. The Great Mariano played Houdini and got three quick outs. Mariano Rivera's opponents (in his career) have had 14 ABs w/ just a runner on 3rd representing the tying run--those batters are 0-14 with 0 RBI. When leading after 8 innings, the Yankees are 60-0. He may not win them all, but with a 1.06 ERA, a WHIP of 0.709 and 5.14 SO/BB he's having one of the best seasons of his career at 40. Not bad.

Neftali Feliz: The guy the Yankees completed their comeback against last night? Neftali Feliz, the All-Star closer who is 3rd in the American League in saves and hadn't blown one since May 11th. The Yankees may face Feliz (and his set-up man Frank Francisco who they tattooed this week) in the playoffs but now with the confidence they can come back against them.

Francisco Rodriguez: K-Rod made headlines off the field--though not that far from it--allegedly knocking out his father-in-law in the Mets family room after the game and getting himself arrested, according to the Wall Street Journal. Deadspin shows that he's been a ticking timebomb for some time and K-Rod is infamous for yelling or blowing off the media at times as well. Bob Klapisch tweeted last night: "Telling that M. Rivera never liked K-Rod. Asked that K-Rod not be given a nearby locker in AL (Yankee) clubhouse for 2008 All-Star Game." Amazingly, Jay sent me this ESPN article with a new Mets logo last night--which he points out was made before the incident in the clubhouse last night.

Jonathan Papelbon: HardballTalk's Craig Calcaterra has the details on this latest choke. The Red Sox closer took over a 5-3 game in the 9th against the Blue Jays, a team who he was 24 for 24 in save opportunities with a 0.82 ERA. After the Blue Jays rallied to tie the game and loaded the bases, they actually pulled Papelbon (after only getting one out) for Daniel Bard who in an impossible situation gave up a sac fly to lose the game in a walk-off. According to Baseball-Reference's Play Index, Mariano Rivera has only 7 games like Papelbon did today with 3+ earned runs, a blown save, and his team lost (and Rivera has had none since 2007). According to B-R's PI, this is the third time Papelbon has done that very same thing this year (and one was against the Yankees). That doesn't even mention his meltdown in the American League Division Series vs. the Angels last season. And even when he does save one, it seems like Papelbon is always walking the tightrope. Red Sox fans are starting to get loud about being excited about a change in guard at closer for 2011

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The Yankee Clipper: A Great Win

It was one of those nights where I knew I had other things to do, but I was frozen on the couch watching the Yankee game. Down 6-1 to Cliff Lee the Yankees looked down and out, facing a two-game sweep and a three-game losing streak with Tampa Bay and Boston getting awfully close in the rear view mirror. And then they had one of those comebacks that you remember during every championship year. 7-6 final. Amazing. Let's talk about it:

A big high five to Thames for his performance last night (Star-Ledger)

1. Reminds me a lot of last year's win against the Braves. On June 24, 2009, the Yankees were 39-22, 5 games back in the American League East, and and having lost three in a row, 5 out of 6, and 9 out of 12. It was make or break for the Yankees as they faced the Atlanta Braves after having been shut out by a rookie (Tommy Hanson) the night before. They were being no-hit through 3 innings when all of a sudden Joe Girardi got himself tossed, Francisco Cervelli hit a home run, and the Yankees won the game on their way to a 7-game winning streak--and a 13 out of 15 game streak that launched them into first place. It was one of those games that is drilled into my skull as a great comeback and one of those defining moments of the season. Last night's win against Cliff Lee (an old-school battle the starter and come back against the bullpen win they used to have a lot against Pedro Martinez), felt like that to me. The team seemed like they were going to be a day late and a buck short like their previous two losses when they couldn't get a hit in the key situations. But, in the end, they did. I was exhilarated afterward and it look like the team was as well. Those types of wins can go a long way--especially if they face the Rangers again in October.
2. Marcus Thames has been in the middle of a few big wins this season. Brien @ IIATMS calls him a not-so-unlikely hero. On May 17th vs. Jonathan Papelbon and the Red Sox, Alex Rodriguez tied the game in the 9th inning with a home run and a few batters later, Marcus Thames hit a walk-off home run. Last night, Derek Jeter tied the game in the 9th inning and Marcus Thames got the go-ahead hit. Thames also blasted a home run (which I think brought down rain) an inning earlier in the game to bring the Yankees within one run. As Mark Feinsand of the Daily News writes, Marcus Thames is once again showing his value on the bench. When the Yankees went out and acquired Austin Kearns and Lance Berkman at the trade deadline, some wanted the Yankees to get rid of the slow, defensively challenged Thames. But the Yankees held on to him because of his bat. Most of that damage this year has done against lefties. But his two biggest hits of the season, have come vs. right-handed pitchers. Against lefties this year Thames is hitting .343/.416/.448 (with a .384 wOBA) with 1 HR and vs. righties he's he's hit .289/.393/.511 with 3 HR. It's a small sample size (and his BABIP is off-the-wall high) but this does show that Thames is truly a threat off the bench no matter who is pitching. A good thing to know before the playoffs start.
3. The Great Mariano as Houdini.

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The Yankee Clipper: Gardner, Montero, Rivera, Cliff Lee and the Bullpen

Let's take a break from debating about what is a sport (or not, the dialog has been quite fascinating) to talk about the Yankees for a while, shall we? Let's head into our Yankee Clipper on this "Dog Day of August" Wednesday in New York (and, by the way, not much is actually wrong with the Yankees; they're still the best team in baseball. Deep breath and move on):

The Yanks need to find Jesus...and bring him up (Times-Union)

1. Brett the Jet has been grounded. Brett Gardner on July 4th: .319/.401/.434. Brett Gardner since July 4th: .169/.302/.213. I know I sometimes am not so objective on Brett Gardner--man crushes can do that for you (if I could clone Brett Gardner and have the second one run errands for me, I would...and the errands would get done really quickly). But he's lost his way. You can't steal bases if you can't get on base. The team has gone 19-11 in those 30 games, but Gardner hasn't been a main part of the cause with only 4 XBH in 89 ABs. He's still playing great defense and has an excellent WAR of 2.8 for the season, but you need to worry if he's hit a wall or teams are now adjusting to him better. Gardner is a slap hitter who can ill afford a large amount of Ks yet he's struck out over 30% of his official ABs since July 4th. His weighted on base average (wOBA) for August is .093 and he still hasn't walked in the month. Gardner needs to get himself straightened out--and fast (though the latter part of the wish is not a hard thing for the Speediest White Man).
2. Jesus rising? Matt at TYU says that we're stuck with Francisco Cervelli but down on the farm the Yankees are seeing their top prospect, Jesus Montero CRUSH the ball at Triple-A. Hopefully in 6 years the Wall Street Journal will be writing about how the Mariners passed on Montero like Brian Costa of WSJ wrote today about how the Texas Rangers passed on Robinson Cano. Sean at Pending Pinstripes says it's still too soon. Brien @ IIATMS defers to the Yankees management. Rebecca at This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes says it's time. Here is video proof (H/T River Ave Blues) of Montero crushing a game-winning home run two nights ago. I can agree right now not to call him up (there's no spot for him), but if Jorge Posada lands on the disabled list with his cranky shoulder (or really anyone goes on the DL), I think Montero should be in the Bronx. At the very least, he should be up in about 2 weeks when rosters expand. This is a team that has a .297 wOBA in August as Larry from Yankeeist points out (though, to be fair, he also points out how good the pitching they've faced has been). No excuse for Montero not to be a September call-up.  For now, we need to just pray for Francisco like many pray for Jesus--Montero, that is.

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Open Thread: What Is a Sport?

This is a question that Jay, Ben and I used to debate all the time on our sports talk radio show, "Double Overtime", on WBRS. It's also a question I debated with my co-workers yesterday. What is a sport? It's not a question just for water-cooler talk either: as Jay wrote a few weeks back, the courts have taken an interest in this question as well, especially pertaining to cheerleading (the courts said no in this instance).

Are these pictured the only real sports?

So while I think few would argue that the Major 4 sports (baseball, hockey, basketball and football) and probably soccer are sports, the rest seem up for debate. What are the criteria for being a sport? How would you define it (since the web definitions vary quite a bit) Can horse racing and car racing (like NASCAR) be considered sport since the actual physical exertion is non-human? Some people don't consider golf a sport but many others will argue with that.

Is the main requirement that ESPN covers it? So does that put poker in that category or is that more of a "game"? What about pool? Tennis? Ping pong? Beer pong? Flip cup? Darts? The hot dog eating contest? Cheerleading? Gymnastics? Chess? Boxing? Swimming? Wrestling? WWF wrestling? Strongest man competition? Or does it have to by in the Olympics to qualify as a sport?

The subject is open for debate and I'm curious your decision. Where do you draw a line? What is your definition of a "sport"? Let us know in the comments below.

The Yankee Clipper: Burnett, Gardner, Jeter, Granderson and Cashman

That's the list of subjects for today. After a 4-game split with the Red Sox, the Yankees head to Texas to face the 1st place Texas Rangers. Let's set up the situation:

Curtis Granderson has had a rough go of it against LHP (NYDN)

1. Curtis Granderson needs to platoon. It's pretty simple. Granderson has been awful against lefties and since this is a trend that has followed him from Detroit, it's time to stop the experiment. I agree with Joe from River Ave Blues: platoon Granderson. Although the Yankees were oh-for-9 with runners in scoring position yesterday, the most frustrating of them was when Granderson faced Lester with the bases loaded and struck out. It wasn't necessarily him striking out (Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher would do the same thing in the following ABs against Daniel Bard), but the fact he was batting at all. Granderson sucks big time against lefties and while there was no perfect replacement on the bench  with both Austin Kearns and Marcus Thames starting, Brett Gardner (as Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus pointed out, Gardner, while a lefty himself, has a .375 OBP of better vs.. LHP the past two seasons) or Lance Berkman would have been better options. But Girardi has stuck with Granderson through thick and thin against lefties and while I understand it at times (the Yankees have a long-term investment in Granderson and need to see if he can be more than a platoon player), going forward the Yankees need to worry about winnings games and not The Grandy Man's feelings. The New York Post's Joel Sherman says that Granderson should be glad that The Big Stein is not around because the pressure could be a lot higher.
2. Brett Gardner needs to run more. Gardner has been in a horrendous slump recently, but even worse than his slump has been his hesitancy on the basepaths. Yesterday was a prime example. As Jaffe writes: "Girardi pulled [A-Rod] for the pinch-running Gardner, who drew four pickoff attempts from Bard but didn't attempt to steal against Martinez despite the Boston backstop's 19 percent success rate in throwing out would-be thieves. Gardner finally lit for second on a hit-and-run as Cano grounded to second, something of a wasted opportunity for the speedster." As Ben from River Ave Blues writes "In an ideal world, Gardner would be the Jacoby Ellsbury of the Yankees. The speed is there, but Gardner doesn’t have the instincts or daring of Ellsbury." I usually don't try to get into the psyche of a player, but that seems to be an extremely true statement. Gardner is one of the fastest white men around yet he seems too scared about getting caught. While stealing efficiency is important, he needs to go in those type of situations. Yesterday, Brett the Jet was grounded.

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The 3-Year Anniversary of the Kei Igawa Waiver Claim

Exactly 3 years ago to the day (and to the hour and minute), Kei Igawa was awarded to the San Diego Padres in a waiver claim. The Yankees had still not given up on Igawa at the time but this seemed like a great opportunity to dump a mistake and move on. Igawa had fallen out of favor in the Bronx after a 2-3 season with a 6.79 ERA in 12 appearances and looked like he would be a much better option in the National League. But the Yankees decided to keep him four days later and hope for the best in 2008. It ends up that was too much to hope for. From Buster Olney on that day:

Kei Igawa has been a huge failure for the Yankees (NYT)

The Yankees withdrew Kei Igawa from trade waivers before Tuesday's 2 p.m. ET deadline, ending conversations between the teams about a deal involving the left-handed pitcher

The Padres were awarded the waiver claim to Igawa on Friday, and at that point, there were three possible resolutions -- the Yankees could have simply handed the pitcher (and what is left of his five-year, $20 million contract) to the Padres; the Padres and Yankees could have worked out a trade, which they talked about in July and continued to discuss over the weekend; or the Yankees had the option of withdrawing Igawa from waivers. The Yankees chose the latter option, in the hopes of rebuilding Igawa for the 2008 season.

Sigh. Even MLBTradeRumors' Tim Dierkes was "disappointed" at the time. And he had the foresight to see the Yankees had no room for Igawa at the Major League level anyways. Igawa pitched a little better in his last two appearances of 2007 and got into two games in 2008, giving up 6 earned runs in the process. He was then sent to the minors where he's stayed to this date. Igawa is still signed through 2011, but even after being setting the record for most wins in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre history, Igawa was bumped from the Triple A rotation until recently.

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In Other Baseball News....

Southborough (my home town) is playing in the New England Regionals of the Little League World Series today at 1pm - the game will be on NESN!!!

(from The Worcester Telegram)

GO BORO!

-Sarah