It’s David VS Goliath all over again, two teams, near opposites in every way battling it out to be national champions. For Butler, another chance avenge their loss in last years national championship game, for UConn, a chance to ride their star player all the way to the top. The grizzled coaching veteran with violations hanging over his head vs. the baby faced 33 year old coaching his second Final Four. Kemba vs. the physical Butler defense. It’s no easy decision picking a winner in this one, but here’s why Butler will be cutting down the nets on Monday Night.
Butler Wins Close Games
There average margin of victory if only 4.2 points and this Butler team knows how to get it done in the closing seconds. Their 2 point win over Old Dominion, 1 point win over Pitt, and 3 point win over Florida make last nights 8 point win over VCU look like a blowout. The Bulldogs keep their cool late in games and can get quick buckets from Howard and Mack if necessary. The Bulldogs have a ton of experience in late game situations in the tourney, which helps prevent them from making boneheaded plays a la Texas in late game situations. The Huskies have only been involved in two real close games, against Arizona and Kentucky, while the Bulldogs have multiple options down the stretch that should help them out late in Monday’s game.
Their Physical Team D Can Stop The Huskies
Tom Izzo said last year after the national semi-final that Butler was the most physical team the Spartans had played and that style has been on display throughout the tournament. Brad Stevens’s intense defense has played a huge role in getting Butler to the national championship game. Their rotations at the end of the VCU game were things of beauty, as the guards clamped down on Joey Rodriguez in the paint and won the game convincingly. While Kemba is certainly is a step up, Butlers team D can contain Walker. Their man defense is strong and you can bet Brad Stevens won’t be playing a lot of zone and letting Walker stroll around the three point line. Butler can force Walker to take tough long jump shots, which he isn’t as strong at as his running drives to the lane. If they can keep Walker on the perimeter Butler should be able to win on Monday.
They Too Have A Star
While he’s no Kemba, Matt Howard is also a dominant offensive player, and his physicality on the defensive end has made him one of the best players in the tournament. Howard leads the team in points and rebounds, and gives Butler a great chance in beating the Huskies. He can make big shots (Old Dominion) and timely buckets (The rebound put back that helped seal the deal against VCU). He’ll probably be guarded early on by Roscoe Smith, who is 6-8 but certainly lacks the speed to keep up with Howard. Howard gets rebounds and scores, and butler should win if he goes off for a big game.
Brad Stevens Will Lead The Way
While Jim Calhoun has the luxury of having Kemba Walker, Butler relies way more on strategy and set plays to win which should bode well for them in the championship game. If Walker is contained Calhoun doesn’t have a lot of options while Butler is well prepared for basically any scenario. Stevens is certainly a big game coach, and Monday should be a shining moment for one of the games best coaches.
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Oh Russell, I am so incredibly happy to point out how wrong this prediction was. Matt Howard finished the game 1 for 13 (that's right, ONE for THIRTEEN). I guess that means one part of your prediction was right - he's no Kemba Walker ;-) He couldn't handle the length and athleticism of UConn's Oriakhi, Okwandu, and Smith.
ReplyDeleteIn addition to overestimating Howard, you also overestimated Brad Stevens. I think this game proved that the boy wonder is not infallible. I would love to know what he was thinking by switching from man-to-man, which he stuck with in the first half and kept UConn to 19 points, to zone in the second half (a defensive move you bet in your post that he wouldn't make - I hope you didn't put too much money on that bet!)
"If Walker is contained Calhoun doesn't have a lot of options..." I think Calhoun out-coached Brad Stevens in this game. In the first half, Calhoun's Huskies scored a mere 19 points. Calhoun was able to adapt at halftime and spread the scoring amongst his players. Although Kemba did score 16 points (a relatively tame Kemba outing), his teammates brought their games to Houston as well. Lamb had 12 points and Oriakhi had 11. UConn didn't so much "ride their star player" as you put it, but rather, they followed his example. In contrast, Stevens's Bulldogs never seemed to adjust to the Huskies' defense, making just 3 (THREE!!!!!!!) 2 pointers. WOW.
I will grant you that Butler's defense was stellar, but unfortunately for Butler, UConn's was better. To put it simply, UConn shut Butler's offense down.
I won't even get into the fact that you said UConn had only been involved in two really close games. I guess you missed the Big East Tournament.
I think, in retrospect, you should rename this post "UConn Huskies are top dogs and win third NCAA Championship!!!"