Monday, May 16, 2011

The Yankee Lineup

With the Yankee's offense in a deep slumber, there have been calls to shake up the lineup.  In Girardi's tenure as manager, he has been hesitant shake up the core of the lineup.  Jeter hasn't batted anywhere other than 1 or 2 and he won't split up Teixeira and Rodriguez.

I personally think lineup changes are overrated, especially when it comes to Texeira and Rodriguez, both of whom are slumping.  If he's going to make any lineup changes, he might as well use the old Billy Martin technique, which involves throwing nine names in a hat and picking them randomly.

However, let's take a look at some statistics and come up with a lineup that may better suit the Yankees at this time.  First, let's take a look at the Yankee OBPs, courtesy of www.baseball-reference.com:
Rk                      OBP
1                        Mark Teixeira# .384
2                        Russell Martin .357
3                        Curtis Granderson* .353
4                        Alex Rodriguez .345
5                        Brett Gardner* .339
6                        Nick Swisher# .333
7                        Robinson Cano* .318
8                        Derek Jeter .313
9                        Jorge Posada# .278



Ideally, Girardi should field a lineup that puts the runners most likely to get on base ahead of the hitters most likely to drive them in.  Right now, there is no question that Curtis Granderson is their most reliable run producer.  With Derek Jeter ranking 8th in OBP on the team, having Granderson bat right behind him in the 2 hole is highly inefficient right now.  Mark Texeira ranks first in OBP, yet batting him towards the top of the lineup would make little sense since Teixeira, when going right, is a great run producer.  The same goes for Alex Rodriguez (although a 345 OBP is well below what we would expect out of him).  Among the remaining hitters with quality OBPs, only Russell Martin remains.  Therefore, I propose that Girardi field the following lineup:

Martin
Gardner
Texeira
Granderson
Rodriguez
Swisher
Cano
Jeter
Posada

Now, there is absolutely no way Girardi is going to field a lineup with Jeter and Posada batting 8th and 9th, respectively.  However, statistically, it's probably where they deserve to hit.  Martin is the best option for the top of the order.  Gardner, despite his inability to bunt or hit consistently, is hitting 250 right now and has shown glimpses of what we saw from him at the plate last year, specifically his ability to work a count a make a pitcher work.  Even if he doesn't get on base, he can make a pitcher work before facing the gut of the Yankee order.  I keep Texeira in his customary 3-hole, since statistically, he has the best balance between getting on base and driving in runs.  Granderson moves into the cleanup spot, where he can hopefully drive in more runs with more runners getting on base in front of him. 

In addition, putting Granderson between Texeira and Rodriguez may get them some better pitches to hit.  Right now, it's preferable to pitch to either of those hitters over Granderson, which means you wouldn't want to pitch around Texeira and if you can't get Granderson out, you would have to pitch to Rodriguez.

After Rodriguez, the bottom of the lineup looks a little weak.  Yes, Cano is a great hitter, but he's in a slump and is not getting on base at all this year.  I bat Swisher ahead of Cano simply because he has a better shot of getting on base.

Given that this lineup will probably never see the light of day, here is a slightly modified version that might:

Jeter
Martin

Texeira
Granderson
Rodriguez
Cano
Swisher
Posada
Gardner

So what are your thoughts?

3 comments:

  1. It's an interesting idea, but I think you move Cano too far down in the lineup under any iteration. He's way too good to be so low. I would almost think of putting him third, Tex 5th and Granderson 6th to change the lineup structure a little bit. This would put the Grandyman in many more RBI situations with A-Rod and Tex right in front of him.

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  2. The assumption is made that these numbers are going to continue. The flip side can cut both ways--- what if Jeter, Swish and Jorgey get worse, what if Cano gets better.

    I think you need to keep your core of Tex, Arod, Cano at 3-4-5. They "should" return to normal form and I think it is fair to use recent history as a reason to keep the heart of the line-up in tact.

    I am all in favor of mixing up the rest of the line-up. The one thing that has not been discussed is the unfortunate lack of options to the nine guys you list.

    I wish they got a better DH in the off-season. I would have been happy to get Vlad (even if he is injury prone), and also Andruw Jones as a back-up/pinchhitter/4th outfielder. Let's get Montero up here and let him see some big show pitching as the DH.

    So here is my line-up:
    Gardner
    Jeter
    Tex
    Arod
    Cano
    Granderson
    Martin
    Swish
    Montero

    As far as Posada, let's bench him if he is hurting the team. I think his actions were stupid, but blown out of proportion. Bottom line is this (which he admitted), his performance is the reason he was moved to 9 hole. If he conitues to stink he will not play. Clearly this whole process puts added pressure on Jeter. The glass is half full part of the story is that the Yanks are getting practice in how to deal with these issues.

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  3. One guy who they miss right now is Eric Chavez. He was hitting well and playing a good 3B.

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