Taking a Stab at the Yankees Playoff Roster

When your magic number is zero for anything you can play for, the two things to do is avoid injury and try to sort out a playoff roster. The Yankees have some interesting decisions to make this year, starting with who the heck is in the rotation. As we whittle down from 40 here's my thoughts about who should be the 25 guys the Yankees head into the first round of the playoffs with (hint: I will not be picking Scott Proctor):

This awesome picture (which you have to enlarge) is from @CreatureTV

The Starting Pitching:
CC Sabathia is their number 1 starter and although he didn't reach 20 wins this season, this was his best season in Pinstripes--and it's not even close. He had his best K/9, BB/9, HR/9, LOB%, ERA, FIP, xFIP, and has really taken the Yankees on his big back this year. I know Justin Verlander is a lock for the Cy Young, but there is a case to be made that Sabathia has actually had a better season. I won't make it, though. He's their numbers 1. And, for that division series, he should be going twice in the first four games. Yup, that means a 3-man rotation for the Division Series. I was a little worried about CC since his numbers have been pretty abnormal since that no-hitter start which kept on getting delayed because of rain, but if injury is not a concern, he should be going in Games 1 and 4 of the ALDS.

If Ivan Nova hadn't spent a decent amount of time in the minors this year, I think he runs away with Rookie of the Year. He's a very similar pitcher as Chien-Ming Wang--a groundball pitcher who gets a few strikeouts and relies on his fielders to make the plays around him. The difference may be that Nova has a chance to keep this up long-term as he has flashed the ability to finish off people with the strikeout. Now he just needs to stay healthy. Either way, he hasn't shown any signs of slowing down this season (unlike Hughes last year) and he's my pick to go in Games 2 and 5.

At any time this season (before probably two weeks ago) I told you that Freddy Garcia would be my pick for the number three starter, I would have even told myself I was crazy. But Phil Hughes has been dealing with back spasms, Bartolo Colon has been dealing with slowing down, and A.J. Burnett has been dealing with being himself. Colon has had the much better season overall, Hughes has the brighter future, and Burnett has the best chance of being dominant, but Garcia gives you consistency which is what the Yankees desperately need in Game 3. Colon hasn't won a game since July and since is 0-4 with a 5.58 ERA, .845 OPS, and 9 HR allowed in 50 innings. Garcia is nothing special and has had some injury issues but he's gone at least 6 innings in 17 of his 26 starts which is what the Yankees need out of their playoff starter with the bullpen they'll put out there. If Colon rocks it tomorrow, I may change my mind, but right now I go with Garcia.

Starting Lineups:
Against righties:
1. Brett Gardner
2. Derek Jeter
3. Curtis Granderson
4. Robinson Cano
5. Alex Rodriguez
6. Mark Teixeira
7. Nick Swisher
8. Eric Chavez/Jorge Posada/Jesus Montero
9. Russell Martin

Against lefties:
1. Derek Jeter
2. Curtis Granderson
3. Mark Teixeira
4. Robinson Cano
5. Alex Rodriguez
6. Nick Swisher
7. Jesus Montero/Andruw Jones
8. Russell Martin
9. Brett Gardner

Before you get all in a huff, let me explain position-by-position.


Derek Jeter went 0-4 on July 4th in his first game back from the disabled list. That dropped his line to .256/.320/.320 and many wondered the level of dead he was at that point. Was he "Mariano Dead" where he looks less-than-superhuman for a day or two and everyone declares him over-the-hill only to bounce back? Was he "Walking Dead" where he was basically a zombie who would spring back to some sort of undead state every once in a while? Or was he "Ted Williams Dead", basically a frozen-in-time version of what he used to be? The correct answer was Mariano Dead. He's hit .343/.393/.464 since that point and the Yankees have gone 40-26 in those 66 games he's played. He's hitting .300 now and looking less and less like the player who people thought was Ted Williams Dead when he went on the DL in June.

It's tough to come up with bad things to say about one of my favorite Yankees, Brett Gardner (who really is a cheaper version of Carl Crawford), but one thing he needs to do is get himself into a position where he doesn't get run down as the season goes on. Gardner plays the game all-out and I think he just gets tired with the season coming to a close. Since August 16th (on a day he was hitting .286/.366/.409), Gardner has hit .168/.270/.244. I know that Gardner helps the Yankees out in so many ways when he's out there, but the guy needs a few days off. If they don't play him again until the playoffs, I'll be okay.

Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson are both MVP candidates but I'm not really sure either one of them should be the MVP. And that's even despite what Joe Posnanski wrote today. That being said, for playoff purposes, both can hit lefties and righties and just need to be in a spot in the lineup where they have some protection. That's why I moved Cano up to cleanup in both lineups.

Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher are two switch hitters having odd seasons with very definitive splits. Tex is having one of his worst offensive seasons despite his power numbers. As a lefty, Tex is hitting .221/.324/.450 (though with much better power numbers) and as a righty he's hitting .297/.377/.557. That's a pretty large variance. Swish is going to have one of the best OBPs of his career but that's mostly due to his right-handed batting where he's hitting .323/.436/.506 vs. .233/.346/.421 as a lefty. With those two splits looking like that, I moved both players down against right-handed pitching.

Alex Rodriguez and Russell Martin with both be in the lineup if they are healthy and the Yankees will need both to perform--A-Rod with the bat and Martin with the glove. A-Rod's struggles/injuries have gotten lost in this season since the Yankees offense and record have been so good, but he's been pretty inconsistent in his power and needs to step up in the playoffs. Behind CC, I think Martin is the most important Yankee player for the postseason because no one can truly replace him (more on this later). They'll take whatever they can get from Martin with the bat but they need him to hold teams like the Rangers in check on the bases.

I can't see a reason why Eric Chavez, Andruw Jones or Eduardo Nunez don't make the roster as they each serve a purpose. Chavez could play 3B with A-Rod DH'ing vs. righties and Jones could DH vs. lefties, though they may have some platoon competition here. But both have a role on this team. Nunez has been pretty atrocious defensively, but he's their backup infielder. I also think he's a great trade chip in the off-season for a lot of teams looking for an offensive weapon at short (more on that much later).

The Bullpen Locks

The bullpen is pretty easy working backwards: Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, and Rafael Soriano are locks.
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Ok, so our count is 17 players, 8 more to go. We have 6 pitchers and 11 position players so far.

Although there is very little need for a lefty specialist on this team, Boone Logan will make it. Robertson, Soriano, et al can get out lefties just as well as Logan but managers like lefty specialists. And I guess for the Josh Hamiltons of the world, they're worth carrying.

It would be a crime at this point for the Yankees to not take Jesus Montero so I'm going with him as well. Montero has a chance to have a coming out party like Andruw Jones had in 1996, K-Rod had in 2002, Miguel Cabrera had in 2003, Adam Wainwright had in 2006, etc. He hits righties, he hits lefties, and although I wouldn't put him back often, he gives you a catching backup. And I'm not sure why the Yankees would want to keep this guy off the roster as he provides that dynamic bat they seemed to have needed many times last season. This kid can rake. He's hitting .357/.438/.643 and his 22nd birthday won't come until after Thanksgiving.

We're down to a lucky 13 players and here's a list of guys who could win the final 6 spots:

• Jorge Posada. Sentimental pick who, in a small sample size, has looked much better in September. Experience in October is one thing going for him--the experience watching him this season is another. If he's only a lefty DH and emergency catcher/1B, he doesn't hurt much, but he doesn't do anything else so I'm not sure how much he helps. I just don't think the Yankees have the heart to leave him off and I think he'll make it.
• Chris Dickerson. Speed and defense off the bench and would give the Yankees another set of legs so you don't need to always burn Nunez late in games. I'm not sure this team needs a 5th OF, but I think it needs a 11th or *gulp* 12th pitcher even less. Greg Golson would do the same but they seem to like Dickerson more since he can somewhat hit.
• Corey Wade and Luis Ayala. Wade's a favorite of Girardi's and Ayala has been just as good, I can't see how both don't make this team though I'm not sure their roles if they both get in. Ayala has a 1.67 ERA and Ks a few over 6 per 9 while Wade has a 1.88 ERA has had K'ed 7 per 9--with fewer walks. Both have been great and unheralded, but I'm not sure you need them both because of...
• Phil Hughes. Girardi has already said Hughes is going to the bullpen for the playoffs. Would he say that and leave him off the post-season roster? I doubt it
• A.J. Burnett or Bartolo Colon. Managers like to bring other starters "just in case" but I'm not sure these two have a place on the team. At least in the first round. One will be starting in the ALCS if the Yankees get there, though.
• Hector Noesi. I think they should bring him as a long man but with so many other pitchers and Hughes stretched out to go long, I'm not sure they'll think the same. He's also been really good. 
• Austin Romine. I thought he was a lock until I remembered one thing: you can replace players who get injured on the roster. So the only reason they would need Romine is that Martin got injured--but if Martin gets injured, they can replace him on the roster with Romine. I'm not sure that's the way the Yankees think, but if Martin's hurt enough to miss one game, he's hurt enough to miss the series. I think you save a spot by taking off Romine. I think Francisco Cervelli is out as well.
• Raul Valdes and Aaron Laffey. The dreaded second lefty. The Yankees need this like I need my rent to go up, but they seem to like the idea of matching up way too much. I just hope they stay away.

My last 6? Dickerson, Noesi, Wade, Hughes, Ayala, and, for the last roster spot, Posada. And if Scott Proctor makes this postseason team, well, it won't be as pretty as this Yankee Stadium sunset (from @Julie_Stone). And that stab I was talking about...

Go ahead, fire away. What are your thoughts? Who makes your roster?