Thank Goodness Mariano Rivera Closes For My Team

The past 24 hours have been chock full of TGMRCFMT (or Thank Goodness Mariano Rivera Closes For My Team). To really appreciate him, you have to look at what other teams are dealing with:

TGMRCFMT (USA Today)

Mariano Rivera: We talked about this earlier today. Last night Rivera came on with a one-run lead and promptly gave up a triple. 3 players coming up with a chance to tie on an out. Tie game, right? Wrong. The Great Mariano played Houdini and got three quick outs. Mariano Rivera's opponents (in his career) have had 14 ABs w/ just a runner on 3rd representing the tying run--those batters are 0-14 with 0 RBI. When leading after 8 innings, the Yankees are 60-0. He may not win them all, but with a 1.06 ERA, a WHIP of 0.709 and 5.14 SO/BB he's having one of the best seasons of his career at 40. Not bad.

Neftali Feliz: The guy the Yankees completed their comeback against last night? Neftali Feliz, the All-Star closer who is 3rd in the American League in saves and hadn't blown one since May 11th. The Yankees may face Feliz (and his set-up man Frank Francisco who they tattooed this week) in the playoffs but now with the confidence they can come back against them.

Francisco Rodriguez: K-Rod made headlines off the field--though not that far from it--allegedly knocking out his father-in-law in the Mets family room after the game and getting himself arrested, according to the Wall Street Journal. Deadspin shows that he's been a ticking timebomb for some time and K-Rod is infamous for yelling or blowing off the media at times as well. Bob Klapisch tweeted last night: "Telling that M. Rivera never liked K-Rod. Asked that K-Rod not be given a nearby locker in AL (Yankee) clubhouse for 2008 All-Star Game." Amazingly, Jay sent me this ESPN article with a new Mets logo last night--which he points out was made before the incident in the clubhouse last night.

Jonathan Papelbon: HardballTalk's Craig Calcaterra has the details on this latest choke. The Red Sox closer took over a 5-3 game in the 9th against the Blue Jays, a team who he was 24 for 24 in save opportunities with a 0.82 ERA. After the Blue Jays rallied to tie the game and loaded the bases, they actually pulled Papelbon (after only getting one out) for Daniel Bard who in an impossible situation gave up a sac fly to lose the game in a walk-off. According to Baseball-Reference's Play Index, Mariano Rivera has only 7 games like Papelbon did today with 3+ earned runs, a blown save, and his team lost (and Rivera has had none since 2007). According to B-R's PI, this is the third time Papelbon has done that very same thing this year (and one was against the Yankees). That doesn't even mention his meltdown in the American League Division Series vs. the Angels last season. And even when he does save one, it seems like Papelbon is always walking the tightrope. Red Sox fans are starting to get loud about being excited about a change in guard at closer for 2011

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Playoff Comebacks, Closer Failures, and the Growing Mariano Rivera Fan Club

Let me first say that the Mariano Rivera Fan Club should be growing exponentially. After watching some of the best closers in the games blow up this postseason, it makes you appreciate Mariano Rivera more and more. Here is a series-by-series breakdown of the 9th inning comebacks vs. All-Star closers in this division series.

Yankees vs. Twins, Game 2 - Joe Nathan is one of the best closers in the game (47/52 on save opportunities) and has been for a few years. The Yankees were down by two runs entering the 9th inning. Mark Teixeira led off with a single and Alex Rodriguez followed up by despositing a 3-1 pitch into the Yankees bullpen. Mark Teixeira would win it with a walk-off in the bottom of the 11th. Nathan would also allow two inherited runners to score in Game 3, helping the Yankees seal the series. Let's look at Nathan's regular season stats:



Dodgers vs. Cardinals, Game 2 - Ryan Franklin has had a very good year (38/43 on save opportunities) although he struggled a bit down the stretch. Franklin game on with a 2-1 lead in the 9th and one out and got Manny Ramirez to fly out to CF. James Loney hit a line drive to left that should have been caught by Matt Holliday for the 3rd out, but even with his drop, there was only a runner on second and two outs. But that error let the floodgates open. Casey Blake walked, Ronnie Belliard singled, Franklin threw a passed ball, Russell Martin walked, and then pinch hitter Mark Loretta got the game-winning single. Even after Holliday's drop, the Dodgers only had a 14% chance of winning, so Franklin deserves some of the blame here. The Cards would never recover en route to being swept by the Dodgers. Here are Franklin's stats for the regular season:



Angels vs. Red Sox, Game 3 - Jonathan Papelbon has been one of the best regular season and postseason pitchers in recent years and this year was no exception (he was 38 out of 41 on save opportunities). His 26 scoreless innings to start his career were the most since Christy Mathewson from 1905-1911. So when Papelbon entered a 5-2 game with four outs to go, it looked over. He allowed two inherited runners to score in the top of the 8th, but got out of it with a one-run lead. It looked over after the Red Sox added an insurance run in the bottom of the 8th to make it 6-4. It looked even more over when Papelbon got two quick outs and had an 0-2 count on Erick Aybar. The Angels had a 1% chance of winning that game. But then Aybar singled, Chone Figgins walked, Bobby Abreu doubled, Torii Hunter was intentionally walked (a boneheaded move in my opinion), and then Vladamir Guerrero made the Red Sox pay by knocking in two runs to make it a 7-6 game. The Red Sox would not be able to rally in the bottom of the 9th ending the series in front of a stunned Fenway crowd. Papelbon was booed off the field. Here was his statline for the regular season:



Phillies vs. Rockies, Game 4 - I detailed this one earlier today. Huston Street came in as one of the best closers in the game, enjoying one of his finest seasons. (35 out of 37 on save opportunities). Street had already suffered a loss in Game 3 so it wasn't like he was guaranteed to be lights out. But Street looked like he may be able to send this one back to Philly for a 5th game. He came on to get 3 outs with a 4-2 lead. He struck out pinch hitter Greg Dobbs swinging, and after Jimmy Rollins reached on an infield single, he got Shane Victorino to ground into a fielders choice. There were two outs, a two-run lead, and only a runner at first. The Phillies only had a 4% chance of winning the game. But then Chase Utley drew a huge walk and Ryan Howard followed with a booming double off the right field wall. He then had a 2-2 count on Jayson Werth before Werth #fisted one to CF for the game winner. Here's what Huston Street did in the regular season:



So my friends, this should make you appreciate Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Broxton, Brian Fuentes, and, yes, even Brad Lidge a little more today. Sam Borden, Ken Davidoff, Joel Sherman, and Ken Rosenthal opine on the same subject.

Pretty remarkable stat from Davidoff (via the Elias Sports Bureau), in the 2009 division series, relievers converted on only a 53.8% success rate. In the 2009 regular season, relievers converted only a 67.2% success rate (this includes set-up men as well). Mariano Rivera has a 89.5% career mark and is 35-40 (87.5%) in the playoffs. I feel like that Mariano Rivera Fan Club should be growing even more.

Oh That Jonathan Papelbon

He's such a good teammate. In response to his team maybe putting in a waiver request for Billy Wagner:

"What has he done? Has he pitched this year?" Jonathan Papelbon told WEEI.com. "Is he ready to pitch or is he not? ... I think our bullpen is good where we're at right now. Don't get me wrong. But I guess you could always make it better. It's kind of like the [Eric] Gagne thing, I guess."

Nice job, Papelbon. Way to roll out the red carpet for the guy.

So Jonathan Papelbon Doesn't Want To Become a Yankee?

Well first he said he would be become a Yankee on Sirius/XM, now Jonathan Papelbon on Rob Bradford's WEEI blog:

"I want to make that clear, I don’t want to go (expletive) play for the Yankees"

Well we don't (expletive) want you either, you piece of (expletive)

There. Now it's settled. And I know you won't get along with the New York Post anyways.

(It's worth reading the rest of the interview. This guy clearly suffers from being a crazy MoFo. The man refers to his crazy alter ego as Cinco Ocho! Seriously. Crazy. Like if that's not a picture of 'Roid Rage, I don't know what is)

Papelbon A Yankee?

I know he's all about the money and this leaves a little leverage but this can't go over well in Boston:

From the press release:

Today (June 18, 2009) on the MLB Home Plate channel on SIRIUS XM Radio, host Jody McDonald spoke with Boston Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon.

At the end of the interview Papelbon was asked if he would ever consider playing for the Yankees if he was unable to reach an agreement with Boston before becoming eligible for free agency after the 2011 season.

Host, Jody McDonald: “If you couldn’t work out a contract with the Red Sox before free agency comes up and you eventually become a free agent, is the Bronx ever a possibility?”

Jonathan Papelbon: “Oh, of course. I mean, I think if we can’t come to an agreement on terms here in a Red Sox uniform, I mean, I think that’s pretty much the writing on the wall. If they can’t come to terms with you they’re letting you know that, ‘Hey you know what? We can go somewhere else.’ And I think it’s the same way on the other side, ‘Hey if ya’ll can’t come to an agreement with me then I can go somewhere else.’ Not only in the Bronx, but anywhere. I think anywhere is a possibility. You always have to keep that in the back of your mind because you can’t just be one-sided and think that, ‘Oh I’m going to be in a Red Sox uniform my entire career.’ Because nowadays that is very, very rare and hopefully we can because there’s no question I would love to stay in a Boston Red Sox uniform but I have to do what’s best for me and play in an atmosphere where I’m wanted and play on a team where I’m wanted and that’s all I can really say about that, you know?”