NYaT Roundtable: National League Championship Series Picks

Well that was an exciting first round, eh? A no hitter, comeback wins, heroes, goats, umpire mistakes--everything. But now that we've gotten done with the first round, it's time to pick the pennant winners. We'll start today with the National League:

Will Halladay add an NLCS MVP to 2010? (ModBee)

Ben W: Phillies will win this series but the Giants will certainly be a bigger challenge than the Reds. The Phillies hitters will see much better starting pitching than they saw against the Reds and since their bats have been relatively cold, this series will be a challenge. However, don't be surprised if you see Roy Halladay start three times during this series. They will have to out-pitch the Giants to win this series, which will be difficult but they would be the favorites to do so. Phillies in 7 - Series MVP: Roy Halladay

Jay: Everyone seems to be on the Philly bandwagon right now. I'm not quite there yet. Everyone is raving about how dominant the Phillies' rotation is. Yes, Roy Halladay threw an amazing no-hitter, and yes, Cole Hamels was outstanding in Game 3. But Tim Lincecum (9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 14 K, 1 BB) and Jonathan Sanchez (7.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 11 K, 1 BB) were similarly dominant, albeit against Atlanta's weaker bats. So I don't see Philadelphia having a tremendous pitching advantage over San Francisco. I think Halladay will slightly edge out Lincecum in Game 1, but after that I just don't know. What I do know is that the Giants' offense (4 games, 28 hits, scored 8 earned runs), as much as it has been criticized, wasn't that much worse than the Phillies' offense in the LDS (3 games, 21 hits, scored 7 earned runs). So are the Phillies that much stronger offensively? I say no. But having home-field advantage, and 2-possibly-3 starts from Roy Halladay, gives the Phillies the edge in seven games. Phillies in 7 - Series MVP: Roy Halladay

Ben P: The Giants might be able to pitch with the Phillies but they certainly can't hit with them. Phillies in 5 - Series MVP: Jayson Werth

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Quick Review of Yesterday's Games: NFL and LCS Weekend

What a weekend for sports:

ALCS: It wasn't always pretty but the Yankees are up 2-0, despite the weather, the confident Angles, a poor history with the Angels, a few errors, wintery weather, Nick Adenhart, cold, bad hitting with RISP, rain, too many men left on base, a big chill, second-guessed decisions...and did I mention the cold and the rain? They just found ways to win and had another wild walk-off. It's better to be lucky than good. Alex Rodriguez may have won the weekend with his 3rd game tying home run of the playoffs, each of which have come in the 7th inning or later. He has added his name to the redemption column after he hit a curious 0-2 pitch over the short right field wall. Do they compare to the 1998 team? Maybe not. Only if Robinson Cano is ready to blow a bubble and point at the ball (maybe instead of "Blauch-head", they'll go with "Can-not" or something witty like that). Maybe they could come up with a good one for Ronan Tynan too. Still a 5-0 start to the postseason is impressive. They're reduced a potential Hall-of-Fame player to a gimpy shell of his former self that many are suggesting should be dropped in the lineup. And they're making a supposedly good defensive team look bad. Now the Yanks get to play under the blue, sunny skies of Anaheim (or is it LA? either way the mayor won't bet on the team) and try to end this series before it comes back to New York again, though we all expect the Angels not to go quietly into the night. We know Mariano Rivera is ready to do whatever it takes as is Derek Jeter, but so is David Robertson.

NLCS: Pedro may have been pulled too early in a League Championship Series game. Have you heard that one before? (Paging Grady Little!). The Phillies lost a tough one on Friday that they led late. Chase Utley is pulling his best Chuck Knoublauch impression which is pretty much what I expected when I talked about how great he was defensively previewing this series (oy). It may just be a few games, but it looks like he has the yips. Who would have thought months ago that Pedro Martinez vs. Vincente Padilla would be the pitcher's duel of the NCLS? The Phillies got one back behind Cliff Lee and some serious offense, winning 11-0 yesterday. Maybe the Dodgers need to stop pitching to Ryan Howard. This series is now 2-1 and the pressure falls onto the shoulder of Randy Wolf, who still has a lot of fans in Philly. The other guys who have a lot of fans in Philly? This Cliff Lee fella who is making up for lost time and "Chooooooooch". Think the Dodgers wish they would have paid up for Cliff Lee? The one question for the Phillies: why were they pitching Cliff Lee so late?

NFL: Cliff Lee has more Ks than the Eagles had points as they lost an embarrassing game to the Oakland Raiders.There is no need to worry about Tom Brady as the Patriots won a laugher you probably can't believe. The Saints embarrassed the Giants, who lost a question-mark game. Mark Sanchez was awful for the Jets (and for my fantasy team).

Today:

• Yankees @ Angels Game 3
  
• Dodgers @ Phillies Game 4
• MNF Broncos @ Chargers

Other People's Opinions On The NLCS

Let's take a look at what everyone else has to say about the NLCS which is about to begin:

History/NLDS: The Boston Herald recaps last year's NLCS match-up between these two teams. It ends up these two teams have met each other quite a bit in the NLCS according to Big League Stew. Bill Conlin writes for the Philadelphia Daily News about the history between these two teams. Sports Illustrated's list of heroes and goats in the first round has a lot of Phillies and Dodgers. Big League Stew and the LA Times say we're getting closer to a Freeway Series. The LA Times talks about an ill-timed divorce occurring with the Dodgers owner. Peter Gammons talks about the problems with the Dodgers management and how that affects Joe Torre. The Philadelphia Inquirer writes about the different roads both managers took in getting to this point.

Roster/Rotation: The Phillies dropped Brett Myers (who was NOT happy about it) and Kyle Kendrick and added Chan Ho Park and Eric Bruntlett to their NLCS roster according to MLB.com. The Philadelphia Daily News tries to figure out which Cole Hamels will show up and The Philadelphia Inquirer says that Hamels has a chance to reverse his fortunes.. Big League Stew asks if Cliff Lee can duplicate. Philadelphia Daily News has some information on Pedro Martinez going in Game 2. Rob Neyer doesn't like Eric Bruntlett on the Phillies roster or Vincente Padilla starting Game 2 over Randy Wolf. The OC Register talks about Clayton Kershaw trying to change his teams fortunes in Game 1.

Analysis: The Good Phight asks if the Dodgers really do have the advantage? Big League Stew's 'Duk has five points for this NLCS. Bill Plaschke says the Dodgers will be pitching inside (unlike last year's NLCS). The Philadelphia Inquirer says the Phillies have played like they did last year. The New York Times says this won't be a cakewalk for the Dodgers unlike the regular season and the first round of the playoffs. FanGraphs takes a look at the series. ESPN's Eric Neel thinks that the Dodgers bullpen is a big strength during this rematch. The LA Times say that the kids on the Dodgers are growing up.

Predictions: Ken Rosenthal has the Phillies in 7. Keith Law picks the Phillies in 6. So does Ken Davidoff. ShysterBall's Craig Calcaterra, writing for NBC Sports, agrees with me and picks the Dodgers in 7.

NLCS Preview: Cliff Lee/Chase Utley vs Dodgers OF and Pitching

I've been back-and-forth on this series. I've believed for a while that the Dodgers and Phillies were the two best teams in the National League. I backed off that a bit when the Cardinals faced the Dodgers. I believe that starting pitching always wins out in the playoffs and a series that featured Carpenter and Wainwright potentially going 4 out of the 5 games would trump whatever the Dodgers threw out there. And, it may have very well happened but Matt Holliday dropped the ball in Game 2 and Games 4 and 5 never happened. I also believed that the Rockies would push the Phillies to the brink. And it looked like it was going to happen before Huston Street met Ryan Howard.

So where does this leave us? Let's take a look

Los Angeles Dodgers:
This is their year!

• They had the best run differential in the majors during the regular season, 58 runs better than the Phillies. They have good starting pitcher, good relief, and a steady closer (and Jonathan Broxton is still the best closer in this series). They have some top hitters mixed with timely hitting. They have Joe Torre. They have the memory of their stinging loss last year. It's the perfect combination for a championship.

• The Dodgers swept the first round of the playoffs with superb pitching. Their 2.00 ERA was second only to the Yankees in the Division Series. If you're going to beat the Phillies, you need good pitching.
  

• Andre Eithier is the one-man walk-off machine and he had 6 hits, including 4 XBH and 2 HR, and five runs scored in the division series (so Eithier scored one less run than the entire Cards team in the first round). Matt Kemp is probably the best center fielder left in the playoffs (if not in baseball as a whole) and he also went deep in the division series. And Manny Ramirez is starting to heat up with 4 hits in the division series, and 3 of those being extra base hits. If Manny hits like the Manny of the past, that's a sick outfield, especially with Rafael Furcal (.500 batting average) heating up and setting the table for them.

• Home-field advantage is huge. Every team with home-field advantage advanced in the first round and the Dodgers project much better in the pitcher's haven in LA than the bandbox in Philly. The Dodgers are 5 games better at home.
  

The Dodgers will be feeling blue (again):

• The Dodgers are starting the third youngest pitcher ever to start a Game 1 when they'll throw Clayton Kershaw on the mound. The last time someone this young started Game 1 was Rick Ankiel and we see how well that ended up. Vicente Padilla, Hiroki Kuroda and Randy Wolf will follow. That means Chad Billingsly, the Dodgers leader in wins with 12, will be pitching out of the bullpen. I have to say that pitching staff doesn't scare me one bit.
  

• The Dodgers bullpen is not as good as one may think. As Baseball-Reference points out, Dodgers relievers appeared in the 4th most games this year. While this is typical of a Joe Torre bullpen, it doesn't necessarily bode well for success. But much more unsettling is this: the Dodgers had 26 blown saves, 3rd worst in baseball and only converted on 63% of save opportunities. As we saw in the first round, that type of percentage can kill a playoff run.

Philadelphia Phillies:
First NL team to repeat since the Big Red Machine!

• Cliff Lee is dominating and is the type of pitcher who could carry the Phillies (a la Cole Hamels last year).

• They are the champs and until someone dethrones them, they are still the champs. They play with the experience of having been there and the knowledge that they can overcome obstacles. This is no small feat.
  

• The Phillies are actually a slightly better road team so the lack of home-field advantage may not phase them. Plus, they have the added bonus of having beaten the Dodgers in last years playoffs.
  

• The Phillies are one of the best baserunning teams in the majors according to Baseball Prospectus (and we saw in the division series how important good baserunning is) and are led by Chase Utley, who happens to be one of the most underrated players in the majors. He is a phenomenal defensive player (UZR only slightly behind Major League Leader Placido Polanco for tops among second basemen) and his WAR, according to FanGraphs, was 4th in the majors, higher than Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Hanley Ramirez, Evan Longoria or anyone left in the playoffs.

• Brad Lidge saved 2 games in the ALDS. It wasn't pretty, but between Lidge, Ryan Madson, Scott Eyre and the rest of the bullpen, Charlie Manuel has found a way to mix-and-match and get important outs.

• The Phillies can beat you with their bats and they're never out of a game because of it. 1-7 scares you in that lineup which is tough for an opposing batter to deal with. When Jayson Werth is among 4 different 30-HR guys in the middle of the lineup, you know that lineup will be tough to deal with. I don't see scoring runs as being a problem for this Phillies team, especially for those 3 games played in Philadelphia.
  

Not this time, Philly

• Cliff Lee pitched in Game 4 of the ALDS so he can only go in Games 3 and 7. Not having him go three times may hurt the Phillies. That means they're throwing Pedro Martinez in Game 2. Yup...

• Don't fool yourself: this Phillies bullpen is terrible. The Phillies got lucky saving games and if not for an offensive outburst in the 9th inning of Game 4, they would have lost that game behind a Ryan Madson blown save.

• The Phillies were one good managerial decision (where is Joe Beimel in the 9th against Ryan Howard?) or one good umpiring call (I love Chase Utley, but that call was bad) away from going to the brink against Colorado. They're facing a team that swept their first round series handily. I don't know which team that will hurt, but it allows to continue to question how good the Phillies really are.

My prediction: I've gone back and forth and back and forth. I don't see this thing ending in less than 6. Then again, I didn't see the Dodgers winning the first round and they swept. These two teams faced each other in the regular season 7 different times. The Phillies won 3 and scored 25 runs. The Dodgers won 4 and scored 26 runs. I think it'll be that close in this NLCS. Dodgers 4 - Phillies 3.

Key Phillies Pitchers:



Key Dodgers Pitchers:



Key Phillies Hitters:



Key Dodgers Hitters:

Trivia Tuesday: LCS Edition

Two questions:

Question 1: This year was a rare year for Major League Baseball: no wild card team advanced to League Championship Series. Since the Wild Card was introduced in 1995, this has happened only 3 other times. Do you know which years?

Bonus for Question 1: Only one of those three years did all four #1 seeds (ie- the teams with the homefield advantage advance to the next round), which year was that?

Question 2: This is the Yankees' 8th ALCS appearance since the playoff format changed in 1995, the most in baseball. Which two National League teams have each made 6 NLCS appearances in that span?

Bonus for Question 2: The Boston Red Sox are second-most in ALCS appearances since 1995 with 5, who has the third-most?

Answer the questions below in the comments (if you're on Facebook or using an RSS feed, please go to http://www.noyoureatowel.net/ to submit your answer). I'll reveal the answers later tonight.

Update: 10:45 AM: Question 3: After everyone got the others correct, I figured I'd add one more. Since 1995, only 4 teams have ONLY made the playoffs as the Wild Card. Can you name those 4 teams?