Friday, April 8, 2011

NYaT Roundtable: Belated 2011 National League Picks

And I thought I was behind with the American League picks. These are even further behind. Luckily, all the picks were done before the season started so while some of them will sound funny now, they are still genuine expert picks. Well "expert". Because, as we saw from the American League, some of our predictions are already not working out. Here's what we think about the NL:
NYaT writers think that Doc Halladay's Phillies will take it all (Star-Ledger)

NL East

Ben W: When a team's starting pitching is as good as the Phillies' staff is, it's hard not to predict them as division winners. I understand that there are questions about their bullpen and their lineup, but their 1-4 starters are just too good. Braves will be a close second. Don't count out the Marlins either. They have good, young starting pitching and Mike Stanton is gonna be a superstar. Mets might improve marginally. Nationals got Jayson Werth but still won't contend. Phillies.

Ben P: The Phillies probably have the best rotation I've ever seen and their lineup isn't too shabby either. Can anyone beat this team? The Braves have a lot of young talent and will probably take the wild card. Florida and the Mets both seem like 500 teams. Both have more questions than answers on their rosters but Florida's pitching and the Mets lineup will make them competitive. The Nationals simply don't have the pitching to compete and have a few too many Zimmermans for my taste. Phillies.

Jay: I realize the Phillies' offense is aging and that Brad Lidge is injured, but the starting pitching is just too strong. I think the Braves, backed by Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Brian McCann, Martin Prado, and the newly acquired Dan Uggla give them a run for their money, but fall a game or two short. Phillies.

Alex O: Let’s go with another surprise pick and not pick the Phillies--- who start season banged up. I am going with Hotlanta. Heyward has a breakout year and the Braves surprise most with a division title. Braves.

Andrew: I'm going to side with Alex and pick the Braves. Although the Braves rotation isn't as good as the Phillies, their bullpen and lineup are better and I think they find a way to overtake them this year. I said that last year as well and look what happened, but I think the maturation of their youth and Dan Uggla make the difference in Atlanta. The Marlins will be around .500 and the Mets will be just under. The Nats are going to be more competitive than most people think and may actually not finish last Braves.

NL Central

Alex O: I think they get better after the breakout season of Joey Votto last year. Chapman only pitched 13 innings last year, so his permanent presence is a big boost. If you never read the Michael Lewis article about baseball in Cuba, it is a must read. The Reds added Renteria and still employ our old friend Miguel Cairo---- I can see him getting a hit against Pedro right now. Reds.

Jay: I have been picking Cincinnati as sleepers in this division for so long that I was thisclose to abandoning them this season. (Fantasy owners probably feel the same way about Grady Sizemore.) But alas, I think this is the year. Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips are great (Drew Stubbs is too) and they have veteran leadership all over. If their rotation stays healthy, it is deep enough for them to win the Central. Reds.

Ben P: The Brewers seriously improved their pitching staff this offseason and their lineup has been solid for a few years now. The Cardinals are also a very good team, but I think the loss of Wainwright will keep them out of the playoffs. The Reds has a playoff caliber lineup, but I trust their pitching as far as I can throw them. The Pirates and Cubs will be improved from last year, but both teams lack the talent to get to .500. The Astros are probably the worst team in the league. Brewers.

Ben W: The Brewers improved their pitching by adding Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum. Add Yovanni Gallardo and you've got a nice 1-3. Ryan Braun is one of the most consistent run producers in the league. Not sure if the Reds have what it takes to win the division again. The Cubs have not improved as much as it appears on paper. Carlos Pena is incredibly hit or miss. However, I do think that Matt Garza will have more success in the National League. The Cardinals will definitely miss Adam Wainwright. The Astros and Pirates will finish at the bottom of the division, but look for a breakout year from Andrew McCutchen. Brewers.

Andrew: I absolutely love the Brewers front three which I would put up against any other Top 3 in the Majors--yes even San Fran or Philly. If the Brew Crew can have John Axford show up like he did last year, they should have enough to outlast the pitching-poor Reds and the Wainwright-less Cards. The Pirates and Astros will just be battling for draft picks while the Cubs will be a forgotten team yet again. Brewers.

NL West

Ben W: The Giants are still the team to beat in this division. They'll get a full year out of Buster Posey and a slimmer Pablo Sandoval looks to regain his 2009 form. The Rockies may still be a starting pitcher short, although they will certainly continue to mash the ball. The Padres will certainly miss the bat of Adrian Gonzalez. The Diamondbacks are a ways away from contending and the Dodgers appear ready for a mediocre season. Giants.

Ben P: The race between the Rockies, Giants and Dodgers will probably be the best in baseball. The Giants pitching is by far the strongest though, so they get my vote. The Diamond Backs and Padres will bring up the rear. Giants.

Alex O: Classic Bill Simmons “Ewing Theory” or “Tiki theory” or maybe soon to be “Melo Theory” where a team shines after big player leaves. In this case it might be after Torre is gone and the relief pitchers arms won’t be so ragged. Dodgers.

Jay: The Giants are going to be in a wire-to-wire battle with the Rockies all season. Colorado has Tulo, CarGo, and Ubaldo (what a great sounding trio) but San Fran has deeper pitching, a better closer, and my pick for NL MVP, Buster Posey. The Giants emerge on top. Giants.

Andrew: I had money on the Brewers, Braves and Rockies last year and so like my betting luck, all will come into the money a year late. The Rockies have some holes but their bullpen is my favorite in the NL and a full season of Tulo may result in an MVP. The Giants got lucky last year that their hitting came together at the right time--I'm not sure they can do it again. Rockies.

NL Wild Card

Jay: I think it's between the Rockies and the Braves. I'll go with the Colorado because, quite frankly, if I can see it going either way, I'd prefer to see the more exciting team make it. To me, that's the Rockies. Rockies

Ben P: Braves

Alex O: Phillies

Ben W: Braves

Andrew: Under my scenario either the Giants or the Phillies won't make the playoffs after winning the last three NL pennants and appearing in the NLCS last year. I think it's going to be the Giants out after being beaten up by a tough division. Phillies.

NL MVP

Ben W: Buster Posey. Looking forward to his first full year.

Ben P: Ryan Braun has the talent and if the Brewers win the Central it's his to lose.

Jay: I'll go out on a limb and say Buster Posey. He is going to have a monster sophomore year. Think 25-30 HRs, 100 RBIs and .300/.350/.500 out of the catcher's spot. He's a great teammate who is going to lead his defending champion Giants back to the postseason. That's pretty valuable.

Alex O: Albert Pujols with a big FU to management as he hits free agency after this year.

Andrew: It may have a lot to do with his home park, but I'm going with Troy Tulowitzki. If he can stay healthy I don't think it's out of the question he hits 40 HR and drives in 125 as a SS and leads that team to the playoffs and actually makes that extension from the Rockies look smart.

NL Cy Young

Alex O: Roy Oswalt

Jay: Roy Halladay picks up where he left off in the 2010 playoffs and wins his second straight Cy.

Ben P: Tim Lincecum takes it as the Lee and Halladay split votes.

Ben W: Tim Lincecum. I think he's got his mojo back.

Andrew: I'll stick with that Milwaukee rotation and go with Yovani Gallardo. If he stays healthy all year he should win 20 and strike out 200 on his way to post-season hardware.

Best NL Off-Season Acquisition

Ben W: Tie between Cliff Lee to the Phillies and Zack Greinke to the Brewers. Pitching wins.

Ben P: Shaun Marcum shut down AL East lineups last year, he'll be just fine in the NL.

Jay: Despite Milwaukee's rotation upgrades (Blue Jay ace Shawn Marcum and KC ace Zack Greinke, who should thrive in another small market), this has to go to Philadelphia for reacquiring Cliff Lee. This move simultaneously weakened some of their competition over in the AL, as the Yankees and Rangers both missed out on their Plan A. "Formidable" doesn't even begin to describe the Phillies' rotation of Lee, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, and Joe Blanton.

Alex O: Jayson Werth . Bold move that is key to turning around franchise

Andrew: I love the Milwaukee acquisitions but you can't go wrong with Cliff Lee, especially at the price the Phillies got him at.

Worst NL Off-Season Acquisition

Jay: The Washington Nationals signed 31-year-old Jayson Werth for $126 million over 7 years. Werth is a nice player, but seven figures for a .272 career hitter who has made 1 All-Star team, never exceeded 100 RBIs, and will be making $21 million at age 38 (with a full no-trade clause)? Yikes.

Ben P: Juan Uribe will have a hard time living up to what he did last year.

Ben W: Jayson Werth to the Nationals. Good player, but not worth nearly the amount of money they spent on him.

Alex O: Kerry Wood. Hoping Yanks made right move in not resigning him, they chose Soriano over Wood---- time will tell.

Andrew: I don't dislike the Jayson Werth deal as much as other so I'm going to go with Miguel Tejada. Not really sure what the Giants are thinking he'll provide them or what else was out there but Uribe may have been a better fit than the washed up Tejada.

NL Rookie of the Year

Ben W: Aroldis Chapman. Should be fun to watch no matter what role he fills.

Ben P: Craig Kimbrel will rack up plenty of saves for the Braves.

Jay: Freddie Freeman. This 21-year-old is huge and can really rake at 1B. A true product of the Braves' system.

Alex O: Aroldis Chapman---- 105 MPH!!!

Andrew: I think it's going to be in Atlanta but instead of Kimbrel, I'm going with Freddie Freeman. This is the best young team in baseball.

NL Winner

Alex O: Reds

Ben W: Giants (over Phillies)

Ben P: Phillies

Jay: Phillies (over Giants)

Andrew: Rockies (over Phillies)

World Series Winner

Alex O: Reds Reds vs. Athletics with a re-do of 1990 and the Cincinnati Reds win the title.

Ben W: Giants (over Red Sox)

Ben P: Phillies (over Yankees) Pitching wins Championships.

Jay: Phillies (over Red Sox) My brain says to go with the Red Sox, as the more complete team -- Philly can't hit with Boston. But there is no freaking way I am going to predict a Red Sox World Series championship. So...Phillies in 7.

Andrew: Rockies (over Red Sox). Retribution for 2007.

What do you think of our picks? Let us know who you think will take home the trophies in the comments below.

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