Sorting out the American League MVP Race

20 years ago it was easy to pick an MVP. You figured out who had the best combination of batting average, home runs, and RBIs on a team that competed for the playoffs and you give it to him. Now, with the advent of multiple advanced metrics, the choices actually become tougher. What do you value the most? wOBA, runs created, WPA, WAR? And if you choose WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which WAR do you pick—FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) or Baseball-Reference WAR (bWAR)? Or something else all together? Well let’s take a look at the American League MVP field as we reach the end of August to see my top candidates. I’ll give my order at the end, so you’ll have to read through to find out who my top 10 are:  

Jose Bautista is the best hitter in the AL--but is he the MVP (CBC)

Jose Bautista: This one is the toughest for most people to comprehend (including me, at first). Bautista leads the American League in bWAR and fWAR. He is tied for the Major League lead in home runs (38) and is first in OBP (.453), SLG (.645), runs created (130), walks (107), and wOBA (.457). And before you go and say that a guy can’t be an MVP for a team that has no chance of going to the playoffs, think about this: the Blue Jays right now are a .500 team and how much worse would they be if they didn’t have Bautista? And if the Blue Jays played in any other division, they may be looking towards the playoffs with Bautista running away with the award. Oh, and he’s the best player in baseball in 2011.

Justin Verlander: Like Bautista, Verlander suffers from another old-school idea that pitchers can’t be MVPs. Usually I agree, but Verlander may be an exception to the rule. He leads the league in wins (20), W/L (.800), starts (29), IP (215.2), K (218), WHIP (0.904), H/9 (6.1), and has a sparkling ERA (2.38), FIP (2.84) and xFIP (3.03). He leads all pitchers in both bWAR and fWAR and is fifth in fWAR and second in bWAR. And where would the Tigers be without Verlander? The Yankees pitching after CC Sabathia is not great but the same is true of the Tigers who don’t have the same peripheral team as Verlander has this season.

Curtis Granderson: As a Yankee fan, the Grandy Man is a tough candidate to root against. Last year he was a frustrating player to have on your team as he not only struggled mightily against lefties, but you felt like he should be a better player overall. Well a trip to the swing doctor, Kevin Long, during a particularly bad stretch last August has turned him around and the results cannot be better. He already has 38 home runs (tied for first), 122 runs (top by far), and 107 RBI (most despite hitting 2nd quite a bit this season) tops his counting stats and with 24 stolen bases, he has a great chance of having a 30-30 season. His batting average (.276) and strikeout rate (24.1%) are not pretty for most but the one thing that would stop Granderson from winning the award may be his poor defense this year by most advanced metrics (as a Yankee fan, I can back that up at times as his terrible jumps and routes to the ball, combined with his poor arm make him tough to watch at times out there). But nothing he does surprises A-Rod anymore.

Jacoby Ellsbury: Alex Speier from WEEI says that Granderson and Ellsbury are among the new guard of top players who are well-rounded, doing a bit of everything right. Ellsbury is second in the AL in fWAR and 4th in bWAR (3rd among position players) and looks like a totally different player. The biggest issue is that I’m not sure how you can pick him as the best player—even on his own team. While he does a lot of things well, he’s not tops in any stat category except for triples, though he really is the leadoff hitter the Red Sox lineup needs to get them going.

Dustin Pedroia: You look at him and continue to wonder how he does it and after already winning an MVP award, he’s certainly a candidate for another. And while he’s 3rd in bWAR (2nd among position players) and fWAR, he suffers from the fact he plays with Ellsbury and Adrian Gonzalez (and the forgotten Kevin Youkilis), who each do what Pedroia does—but most of them do it better in some ways. Few in baseball are better defensively than Pedroia at their position, though, and it certainly elevates the diminutive Pedroia.

Adrian Gonzalez: He may have been the MVP at the All-Star Break, but he’s fallen off and given way to those who set the table for him in the lineup. He should win the batting title however, which is pretty impressive in his first year in the American League. I won’t count him out of winning the award, however, as his counting stats, his first-base defense and his first-place team may put him near the front of the pack. More likely, however, is that his teammates all split votes and A-Gone is left out.

Ben Zobrist: Zobrist isn’t going to win the MVP and probably won’t get a lot of votes, but he’s a candidate once again and his value can definitely be seen this year as he’s been the most consistent player on a gritty, but undermanned Rays team. 5th in fWAR, 9th among position players in bWAR, and really one of the most underrated players in the league as he plays whatever position the Rays need him to—and Zorilla plays it well.

Jered Weaver and CC Sabathia: A few weeks back when the bad blood occurred between the Angels and Tigers, the matchup on the mound was Weaver vs. Verlander in a matchup of two teams fighting for playoff spots and two pitchers fighting for the Cy Young. Verlander not only dominated that game, he came close to throwing another no hitter, again putting his team on his back. Weaver is a great pitcher, but he ended up getting hit, lost his temper, and left a game when his team needed his dominance on the mound. Sabathia may be in contention if he didn’t have to face the Red Sox, but the hefty lefty is right now running behind Verlander in the Cy Young race and behind a few of his teammates in the MVP race.

Brett Gardner, Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher: After Granderson and Sabathia, who would you pick as the Yankees 2011 MVP? It’s not Mark Teixeira (despite his power numbers) or Derek Jeter (despite his second-half turnaround) or Mariano Rivera (despite being one of the best closers in baseball again) or David Robertson (who is probably the best set-up man in baseball at this point): it’s one of these three. Gardner is rated as the best defensive player by both FanGraphs and B-R and he is a game-changer with his league-leading 38 stolen bases (though he has slowed down lately at the plate). Would you believe that FanGraphs has Nick Swisher rated as the 4th best and B-R as the 2nd best defenders in the AL? His second-half turnaround is overshadowed by Jeter’s but he’s on his way to another quietly-great season—and to getting his $10.25 million option for next year a sure bet to be picked up. Cano has been nowhere where he was last year (or during his Homerun Derby), but he’s been pretty damn good for the Yankees, producing with the bat and with the glove like few in the Majors can—when he’s focused and on.

Michael Young and Ian Kinsler: Do you think the Rangers are glad that they didn’t trade Michael Young? Young doesn’t have nearly as much value as Kinsler does but he has been invaluable, shifting all around the diamond as the Rangers have dealt with injuries all season. I always underrate Kinsler but it’s time to give him his due as he’s had another solid season of 20 HR, 20 SB, and very good defense at second base. Neither one will get much MVP pub (and rightfully so), but both have been pretty important for a Rangers squad fighting for a playoff spot. Miguel Cabrera: Another solid season for Miggy but nowhere near the MVP this year. He’s quietly put up very nice numbers again for the Tigers, however.

Alex Gordon, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila, Howie Kendrick, Yunel Escobar, and Alexei Ramirez: The unsung heroes of the American League here as all have put up better-than-expected numbers in 2011. None of them, though, can compete with Gordon who many thought was a Major League bust and quietly has been the Royals best player all season long as the weight of his expectations have slowly died down. He’s 6th in both bWAR and fWAR and has really quietly entered himself into the Ben Zobrist category of versatile/valuable players that a winning team needs to have. It’s an odd piece to build a team around, but after years of losing ballclubs, it’s at least something in Kansas City.

So who are my Top 10?
1. Bautista
2. Verlander
3. Granderson
4. Ellsbury
5. Pedroia
6. Zobrist
7. A-Gone
8. Gordon
9. Gardner
10. Cano

Who are your top 10? Read ESPN's Keith Law's top candidates and let us know in the comments below.